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Sammy Sofa

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Everything posted by Sammy Sofa

  1. Sammy Sofa
    Hey, at least your expectations are totally reasonable.
  2. Sammy Sofa
    Then I'm not being very clear. Forecasting is all about predicting probable outcomes based on all the information you have at hand. The most recent information has to be weighted most heavily (including whether there are significant causal factors at play). Starlin taking an apparent step back in most important hitting categories significantly reduces his projections. Based on his performance history and age, he is still very likely to have a very good career and be really productive throughout his prime. But he is less likely to have a HOF-type career and it also increases his potential to flame relatively early. Understood; I just don't place as much trust into the projections as you do, especially given his ability and who is running this team.
  3. Sammy Sofa
    "Prime years" are generally agreed to start, what, 24 or 25?
  4. Sammy Sofa
    Counter examples don't make it right. Should I list all the players who started off looking promising, had a hiccup and never recovered? There are more of those, btw, they're just less memorable. Started out as a top 5 player at their position for two years, had a hiccup where they were only slightly above average at their position, and the never recovered? At a position like SS? Garry Templeton is the closest example I can think of, and even he was productive for 5-7 years before dropping off. Edgar Renteria had a fairly short period of being near the best at his position as well, but it was never so early on in his career. 1) If you are going to limit the examples to those particular criteria, there won't be a lot of people to list on either side of the argument. 2) For the love of repetition, I'm not saying Castro is going to go into the toilet next year. I'm still saying he's going to be a really good player throughout his prime. I think that's the main sticking point; that you're talking about him like this year has all but locked him in to "only" being "really good."
  5. Sammy Sofa
    Counter examples don't make it right. Should I list all the players who started off looking promising, had a hiccup and never recovered? There are more of those, btw, they're just less memorable. How many of them were as talented/touted and successful as Castro? And at what ages? Not a perfect comp and injuries had something to do with it, but this is one I never liked seeing on Castro's otherwise amazing comp lists: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/templga01.shtml Yeah, that's bugged me, too.
  6. Sammy Sofa
    It's one thing for them to get destroyed on the field, but I mean 3 errors in one inning, other errors, and mental breakdowns. Fundamentally I would like to see an example of a worse game played. I'm fairly confident the Cubs have had worse games than 5 errors and a single bad send by the 1B coach. The 1B coach isn't even supposed to be guiding him at that point. Yes, I know. I'm still not going to declare this the worst Cubs game I've ever seen in 30 years.
  7. Sammy Sofa
    It's one thing for them to get destroyed on the field, but I mean 3 errors in one inning, other errors, and mental breakdowns. Fundamentally I would like to see an example of a worse game played. I'm fairly confident the Cubs have had worse games than 5 errors and a single bad send by the 1B coach.
  8. Sammy Sofa
    Counter examples don't make it right. Should I list all the players who started off looking promising, had a hiccup and never recovered? There are more of those, btw, they're just less memorable. How many of them were as talented/touted and successful as Castro? And at what ages?
  9. Sammy Sofa
    Annoyingly bad.
  10. Sammy Sofa
    There is no possible way that a long term fan of the Cubs could think this is the worst game they've seen from them.
  11. Sammy Sofa
    Yeah, but that's part of the great thing about having a 22-year-old. To be frankly honest, I don't give a [expletive] if it skews the predictions right now given the ability he's displayed and the huge amount of time we're talking about. Absolutely. That's why I'd still say he's going to be a really good player throughout his prime. Or a great one. It just seems like you're placing way too much weight on his struggles this year.
  12. Sammy Sofa
    Well, Castro in the game today seems to be trying to singlehandedly destroy the support he's getting in regards to baserunning and defense.
  13. Sammy Sofa
    Yeah, but that's part of the great thing about having a 22-year-old. To be frankly honest, I don't give a [expletive] if it skews the predictions right now given the ability he's displayed and the huge amount of time we're talking about.
  14. Sammy Sofa
    I'd argue he's an overall better baserunner this year. Why? Totally unscientific eye test. The Cubs as a whole have improved in this area and I'm lumping him into that because of his ability.
  15. Sammy Sofa
    Are you talking to me? I'm saying he still projects to be a really good player throughout his prime. But that this season (on offense) has been disastrous compared to what was hoped for as progression for a 22 year old that was on a HOF track. This isn't really a thing. I mean, yes, you expect/hope for continual improvement, but to act like an offensive hiccup at age 22 of a player like this is a "disaster" is just ridiculous. How well do you understand forecasting? btw - Just because ARod had a blip in his improvement doesn't mean it's a bad thing when it happens to someone else. So what's your specific concern? What is your reason for thinking that this is indicative of some kind of continuing trend or career definition?
  16. Sammy Sofa
    I'd argue he's an overall better baserunner this year.
  17. Sammy Sofa
    Pretty much this. It's simply far, far too early in his career and in this slump for the histrionics of being worried about him or declaring things a disaster.
  18. Sammy Sofa
    Beloved futility.
  19. Sammy Sofa
    Beloved hair.
  20. Sammy Sofa
    probably back when homeboy whatever his name is hit those shots on a broken leg and was a national hero ever since. your face is crazy talk now sit down before you lose your pants. Beloved player.
  21. Sammy Sofa
    '01 Yankees on a technicality? That lasted about a week. I dunno, when someone says "beloved" I'm picturing a team that people love for more than just the playoffs or a certain player or the championship or even a single season. A NYC superteam would be good for business, but they'd be even bigger villains than the Heat.
  22. Sammy Sofa
    Are you talking to me? I'm saying he still projects to be a really good player throughout his prime. But that this season (on offense) has been disastrous compared to what was hoped for as progression for a 22 year old that was on a HOF track. This isn't really a thing. I mean, yes, you expect/hope for continual improvement, but to act like an offensive hiccup at age 22 of a player like this is a "disaster" is just ridiculous.
  23. Sammy Sofa
    Since we're contemplating Starlin's HOF-worthiness, were people freaking out when ARod's OPS dropped 200 points from his age 20 season to his age 21 season? Granted, we're talking about going from 1.045 to .846, but hey, let's live the dream!
  24. Sammy Sofa
    Yeah, only Tim is pointing out facts.
  25. Sammy Sofa
    When the hell was the last time a NYC team was actually nationally beloved? That's crazy talk.
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