davell

Pass. Can't believe I'm saying that either. But, if we're giving out a long term, nine figure deal this offseason..... It should be for hitting. Plus, we've got enough multi year commitments for starting pitchers to begin with..... I want to trade for a young starter that's depth, plus sign a short term guy. Maybe Hamels, maybe someone not quite that expensive, depending on how things shake out.

Definitely didn't see that coming. Let's hope he can stabilize this into being solid the rest of the year. He reads were MUCH better, that's for sure. Wish Hicks hadn't done that though.

well it's more about last offseason than anything. assuming they don't go deep in the playoffs (which they still could), people are going to pin that entirely on theo for the darvish and chatwood moves. i'm not saying it's fair, but he's going to have to answer for that. also, the fact that multiple young hitters horsefeathers the bed is going to have people worrying. I mean, they've won 94 games. More than last year in a season our MVP played hurt since May and missed over 60 games. And in a year we had our nine figure new starter pitch 8 games. With lots of other stupid horsefeathers go on as well. Honestly, it anything, this season has shown how far we've come as an organization.

I guess in some ways, there is a bit. But, context is seriously needed. 4 straight playoff appearances, 3 NLCS's in a row, with a possibility of making it 4. We won that thing we hadn't won since 1908...... Sure, Theo has built something here that now puts out serious expectations...... But, there's teams with more. The Yankees, because they're the Yankees. And because they haven't won since 2009 and because they reset their luxury tax, at the detriment of this season. And they've got gobs more money than the Cubs do. The Dodgers, for the exact same reasons as the Yankees, except it's been 30 years since they've won it all. The Nats, because they've had great rosters for a while and it's getting close to last fall for them, for a bit anyway, unless they keep Bryce..... The Phillies, because they've rebuilt. They thought they would contend this year, but now will finish under .500. But, literally have 100+ mill to spend, just to hit the LOW end of the LT. They've GOT to spend their money and spend it wisely, not easy to do in FA. Especially if they miss on the big 2. So yeah, there's a bit of pressure on Theo...... But, it's not that much.

I'm guessing they go..... 1 Dunn, Payne 2 LaVine, Valentine 3 Holiday, Hutchison 4 Parker, Portis 5 Lopez, Carter Hopefully Carter gets 20+ MPG from the start and starters minutes once Lopez is moved at the deadline. And it'd be nice if Hutchison finds a way to stick in the rotation after Lauri comes back. But, he's probably odd man out unless there's a back court injury or Holiday gets dealt.

Eh, I think they were better than that partly because Niko had an insane stretch and carried them for a little while. I don't think that happens on that level, with anyone, this year. And I'm more than a little concerned that there will be enough balls to go around, with LaVine and Jabari chucking..... Plus, the extremely small amount of time LaVine/Lauri/Dunn were on the court together last year resulted n some horrible +/- numbers. I am excited about seeing this group, I think there's quite a bit of talent. But, I fully expect a season full of growing pains.

Lauri missing 6-8 weeks flat out sucks. Hopefully he sees the ball enough once he gets back. I'm guessing 26-56 for the year.

Believe it or not, that dude has one more arbitration year left lol.

I definitely want Chavez back. That's 5 mill. I'll take Hecchavarria at 1/3. 8 mill spent, sounds crazy, but I'll take Tyson Ross for the rotation. I think he's a good one year guy. That's 13 mill, give me Donaldson. The only other option of an impact bat. That's 30 mill. We need a healthy and consistent guy for the pen still, give me David Robertson at 10. Leaves 10 left over for the deadline. Or gives you the option to upgrade one of these spots a decent amount. But, I'd rather have that for midseason.

Ok, all contract guesses are up.

This has been broached in a different thread. So, what do we do, if this is the case? We have needs and we have some money to spend too....... In all likelihood, we'll make a trade or two, but it's impossible to predict those things. So, let's just figure this, as the scenario...... We trade Happ or Almora for a solid pen arm that's still pre-arb..... We move Duensing off the roster by attaching something small to him. And we non-tender Russell. So, that would leave us around 50 mill in available funds to spend, to keep under the top end of the Luxury Tax. C Contreras, Caratini 1B Rizzo 2B Zobrist, La Stella SS Baez 3B Bryant, Bote LF Schwarber CF Almora or Happ RF Heyward SP Lester, Quintana, Darvish, Hendricks, Chatwood, Smyly, Montgomery, Mills RP Morrow, Strop, Edwards, Cishek, Kintzler, Rosario, Webster, Maples, Norwood, solid guy we get for Happ or Almora Possible Needs Backup C, SS or guy that can at least be passable, an OFer possibly, or MAYBE a 3B, which moves Bryant to the OF. A starting pitcher or 2, depending on your confidence levels, and another pen arm of 2, also depending on your confidence...... Let's figure the pen arm we get in the Happ or Almora trade is pretty solid. Let's figure no more trades. With 50 Mill to spend...... I'm trying to come up with figures that are fair, so bare with me, these won't be perfect, and may need some amending. Catchers-Yasmani Grandal-4/72 Wilson Ramos -4/60, Kurt Suzuki-1/7, Matt Wieters-1/6, Brian McCann-1/6, Jonathan Lucroy-1/4,Rene Rivera-1/3,AJ Ellis-1/2 2nd Basemen- Jed Lowrie-2/32, DJ Lemahieu-3/36, Daniel Murphy-2/26, Brian Dozier-2/25, Asdrubal Cabrera-2/18, Marwin Gonzalez-3/27, Neil Walker-1/3, Josh Harrison-1/3 Shortstops- Eduardo Escobar- 3/33,Jose Iglesias-1/7, Freddy Galvis-1/6, Jordy Mercer-1/5, Adeiny Hecchavarria-1/3 3rd Basemen- Josh Donaldson- 3/51, Mike Moustakas-2/28, Adrian Beltre-1/15 Left Fielders- Michael Brantley- 2/32, Carlos Gonzalez-1/10 Center Fielders- AJ Pollock- 4/64, Andrew McCutcheon- 2/34, Adam Jones-1/12, Leonys Martin- 1/7 Right Fielders- Nick Markakis-1/15, Lonnie Chisenhall-1/10, Melky Cabrera-1/3 Long Ass Post- Will continue this after the game, with the Pitchers. Feel free to help change my mind on any contracts, if anyone sees this during the game..... Starting Pitching- Kershaw-6/210, Patrick Corbin-5/105, Dallas Keuchel-5/85, Yusei Kikuchi- 4/64, Charlie Morton-2/36, JA Happ-3/42, Hyun Jin Ryu-3/42, Cole Hamels-2/32, Nathan Eovaldi-2/24, Wade Miley-2/18, Lance Lynn-1/12, Gio Gonzalez-1/10, Derek Holland-1/10, Drew Pomeranz-1/10, Trevor Cahill-1/8, Matt Harvey-1/7, Clay Buccholz-1/7, Tyson Ross-1/5, Marco Estrada-1/5 Relief Pitchers- Craig Kimbrel-5/90, Andrew Miller-3/39, David Robertson-3/30, Cody Allen-3/30, Adam Ottavino-3/27, Zack Britton-2/24, Kelvin Herrera-2/20, Trevor Rosenthal-2/20, Jeurys Familia-2/18, Joaquin Soria-2/14,Joe Kelly-2/12, Justin Wilson-1/8, Shawn Kelley-1/8, Brad Brach-1/7, AJ Ramos-1/6, Tony Sipp-1/5, Jesse Chavez-1/5, Bud Norris-1/5, Brad Ziegler-1/4, Jake Diekman-1/4, David Phelps-1/4, Jerry Blevins-1/3, Zach Duke-1/3, Jorge Dela Rosa-1/3, Jaime Garcia-1/3, Adam Warren-1/3 So, there's my guesses. What can you do with 50 mill?

Let it be known I'm not the one posting about this stupid horsefeathers during the middle of a Cubs game. Tom, I legitimately TRIED to be helpful just now. Wasn't being shitty, wasn't trying to start anything. I simply posted that you made a mistake. Which you did. I could go further now and say that not knowing what type of an injury the guy has, literally invalidates any other thoughts you may have on the matter, because why would anyone take what else you have to say seriously, on that subject? As for my original thought process..... I honestly thought I might be putting your mind at ease by you mistaking it. Because you have cited having a healthy arm numerous times, in talking up multiple draft guys like Kumar Rocker, guys in our system like Ryan Kellogg, and guys you've advocated trading for like Marcus Stroman, Rick Porcello, Julio Teheran, and I'm leaving plenty out, on all fronts. These are memorable, due to how often you shoved them down everyone's throats. Oh, and Aroldis Chapman. As a starter. I figured that because you HAVE constantly brought it up before, that knowing Alzolay didn't have an arm injury would have just resulted in you basically saying, "oh cool", not turn this into your typical horsefeathers. Tried being cordial, got a typical shitty response, done conversing now.

Tom, you site healthy arm history quite a bit. I'm not going to go look up past posts, but its been said often by you. (Yes, OFTEN can be a term we disagree on though too) Nevertheless, you've mentioned it enough to where it definitely got my attention, when you kind of said that lat or arm didn't really change things. Honestly, to me, a TJS isn't that big of a deal. Unless the dude has some weird delivery or something. But, I brought it up in this case, because 1) You were wrong on the type of injury and 2) You have cited healthy arm as being very important in the past. So I figured that the fact it wasn't an arm injury would actually have made you feel a bit better on him. That said, I don't THINK you've ever been very high on him to begin with, but maybe I'm wrong.

Chili Davis' team stats the year before he got there, they the year after he left...... 2011 Oakland- .244/.311/.369, 114 homers, 8.3%W, 17.9%K 679 runs(year before him) 2012 Oakland- .238/.310/.404, 195 homers, 8.9%W, 22.4%K, 713 runs 2013 Oakland- .254/.327/.419, 186 homers, 9.7%W, 19.2%K, 767 runs 2014 Oakland- .244/.320/.381, 146 homers, 9.4%W, 17.7%K 729 runs 2015 Oakland- .251/.312/.395, 146 homers, 7.7%W, 18.1%K 694 runs(year after he left) 2014 Boston- .244/.316/..369, 123 homers, 6.6%W, 21.5%K,646 runs(year before him) 2015 Boston- .265/.315/.415, 161 homers, 7.7%W, 18.4%K, 748 runs 2016 Boston- .282/.348/.461, 208 homers, 8.8%W, 18.3%K, 878 runs 2017 Boston- .258/.329/.407, 168 homers, 9.0%W, 19.3%K, 785 runs 2018 Boston- .267/.337/.450, 199 homers, 8.9%W, 19.8%K, 833 runs (year after he left) 5 GAMES REMAINruns 2017 Chicago- .255/.338/.437, 223 homers, 9.9%W, 22.3%K, 822 runs(year before he got here) 2018 Chicago- .258/.333/..411, 163 homers, 9.0%W, 21.9%K, 731 runs 5 GAMES REMAIN The simple- Boston got much better immediately after he left and we got worse as soon as he got here. In Oakland, his walk rates were all better than before he got there. His homers went down from.his first year until his last there. While they went down, his team's K rates did each of his 3 years as well. His team's walk rates were all better than from when he got there too. In Boston, his walk rates went up each of his 3 seasons. His homers topped out in the middle, so did the runs scored. His K rate is down each season than from before he inherited them. The team is up 31 homers and 48 runs this year over last year though, with 5 games left.(And they scored a ton today too that's not included) In Chicago, the walk rate is DOWN, as is the K rate, but the walk rate is down more actually. Homers are down 60, with 5 games left and runs are down 91 too...... Is this fireable? Yeah, I think it is. Will be be fired? I'd say it's 40/60, maybe 50/50, that he gets canned. But, if he doesnt, he'll be on an extremely short leash, any struggles next year, and he's an in-season fire. Still, I'd fire him after this season. We took a serious step back. And his track record doesn't get me excited that we'll see some big positive turnaround either. He's a contact preacher coaching a team full of dongers. Not a fit, time to move on quick.

Pitching next year, I'd expect Hendricks, Quintana, Lester, and Darvish to be around 8 WAR. Bullpen gets 3 WAR, could be more, but that's out of what we've got coming back..... Willy gets 3, so do Rizzo and Javy, KB gets 4. Zobrist gets 2, Schwarber and Heyward combine for 5, bench gets 3..... That's 34 WAR, or 82 wins basically, before FA, and with very reasonable expectations out of guys. I hate this season, but even if we don't get Bryce, I think this team wins more games next year than it does this year.

Not trying to start an argument here, but you harp on arm injuries with guys quite a bit. So, there should be quite a bit of difference in those injuries, to you, more than most.

Solid thread. Read thru the entirety of his thoughts.

Did I miss something? Alzolay had a lat injury and that was it, to my knowledge.

So Russell is getting non tendered. Sure, the Cubs will attempt to move him. But, it would have been a limited market before this stuff. Non-existent market now, some team will scavenge around and sign him late in the off season most likely, unfortunately might even get a bargain, based on what his abilities are(or were). At any rate, none of this matters, we will have to address SS in the off season now...... Javy is the answer. Yet, you've got to have a backup for him. That was a huge strength for us, to have him to fill in when Russell needed a day off, or was hurt...... Assuming we don't get Manny, which....... horsefeathers, maybe this puts us squarely in the mix for him. Prior, I figured Harper was definitely the guy. Now, maybe it goes either direction? Anyway, let's figure we get Bryce. We've got to find a relatively cheap backup SS...... Or a guy we can actually play there a decent amount, with Javy still taking lots of 2B reps...... Doubt we put a ton of funds into this, Russell was likely to make 5-6 mill. My guess is we stick in that range, considering our other needs...... So, who's out there in FA? Asdrubal Cabrera-.264/.316/.461, 23 homers, -5 DRS in 198.1 innings at SS, -18 DRS at 2B..... So, a solid bat, not worth a horsefeathers in the field. Plus, he might get a bit more money than we'd go anyway..... Eduardo Escobar-.268/.333/.492, 22 homers, -7 DRS in 185.2 innings at SS. Decent defensive 3B. Honestly, I had no clue this guys been this decent hitting. That said, he's not good defensively at SS, which is our primary need here. Freddy Galvis-.240/.293/.368, 12 homers, +7 DRS in 1333 innings at SS. This guy fits what we probably want. Does he fall into the 1/5 to 1/7ish range contractually? My thinking is it's possible. Not exciting, but a decent option. Adeiny Hechavarria-.254/.285/.348, 5 homers, +3 DRS in 668.1 innings at SS. Again, not exciting, even less so than Galvis...... But, probably a cheap option for us. Jose Iglesias-.269/.310.389, 5 homers, +1 DRS in 1055 innings at SS. Not sure where I'd put him in this grouping, but he seems like a solid enough option. Jordy Mercer-.249/.315/.379, 6 homers, -10 DRS in 976 innings at SS. I figure he's passable enough, for what we're looking for. Marwin Gonzalez- .249/.322/.417, -5 DRS in 255.1 innings at SS. Decent at 2B though and has been decent at 3B as well, in the past. Obviously has versatility. Don't know his cost, but if it's under 10, I'd be completely fine with this guy. 3/24 or 3/27, maybe slightly less? No idea, but the versatility comes in handy with our group. So, what does everyone else want? Or do you prefer going after a 2B, and just figuring Bote, Zobrist, Zack Short, and whoever the 2B addition is, can handle things......

Honest reasons to like Alzolay..... Mid 90's FB with movement thats a plus pitch. Curve flashes plus, although its usually average. Change is improving, might be average by now. Works very fast, hard to get in a rhythm against. Seems to be a very high makeup guy.

Pretty solid list, from a guy who knows someone within the org. Honestly, some of these rankings might help shed a bit of light on a few guys. I'm hoping he goes in depth as to the "whys" on some of this.....

Some here may not know this guy. That said, he's definitely got a legit source. He actually broke that it was Monasterio going in the Murphy deal. You gotta know something, if you get THAT right lol..... So anyway, worried about the Braves? I'm guessing we're concerned about creativity? Liberty could potentially offer up a stake of Formula One to him, I guess? Or NASCAR, if they buy it? No idea, not even sure it's legal to do that kind of stuff...... But, if they're concerned with the Braves, it's gotta be more than just money......

Yeah, being spoiled is awesome. I definitely have some issues with how Joe uses the pen, but not nearly to the point I'd want him gone or anything. And if I did, it wouldn't matter anyway, because he's not going anywhere. But yeah, I'd suspect our 4 star Yelp doctor and staff are history after the season.

I'll be surprised if Trubisky is a top 5 QB of these past 2 drafts.

we do? Javy at SS, with Zobrist, Bote, and I guess Happ can still technically field well enough for a few starts here and there. If need be, you can probably find a cheap backup type too. Seal Boy too. Yeah, if he nets us a decent, cheap pen arm, get rid of him. Edit..... Wasn't thinking, but we WOULD possibly need to find a backup SS. But, Bote can at least till in occasionally. I guess it depends on the internal eval on Short.....