davell

You should probably attribute that to Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs. It looks like your scouting report right now lol. I like Matt Swarmer and think he could become a useful reliever. Oops,yeah lol.

Matt Swarmer was a 19th-rounder in 2016 out of Kutztown (a small PA school which has given us John Mobley, Andre Reed, Ryan Vogelsong, and my high-school chem teacher, end of list) who fits an archetype targeted by the Cubs many times in recent drafts: deceptive college arms. Swarmer’s delivery, which is similar to that of Josh Collmenter’s, makes for a very uncomfortable at-bat. His three-pitch mix includes a low-90s fastball, tilting low-80s slider, and firm changeup. All are fringey on their own but play up because of hitters’ discomfort with Swarmer’s delivery. Pitchers like this are best suited for spot starts or long relief, which is exactly what the Cubs are trying to cultivate with the high volume of college pitching they’ve selected in recent years as a way of creating depth behind their fairly shallow big-league staff.

Not sure how much it'd affect his price tag, but the upcoming draft is one of the strongest in pass rushers, I'm a long time.

If we get Bryce, I think an Almora/Heyward CF platoon would be nice. Happ seems like the guy to me that's probably got the most value, between him, Almora, and Russell, plus the most team control. So, he seems the easiest to move. The more I think about Russell, I think we're probably stuck with him. He's coming off a down year, he only has 3 years left...... Who's trading for him? I can't find a contender or even a team that wants/thinks they're competing next year, that he represents a true upgrade over. And with just 3 years left, it's not enough control for the tanking teams.......

To move guys like that, the first question is how much do you think they'd get on the open market? My honest guess is you could get Chatwood on a 1/4 type of deal, with incentives. Heyward? He's obviously had a better season. But, those 2 years damaged the value a bunch, he's 29, and he's still primarily a defense-first guy and it's hard to see teams paying up for that, especially as he ages. My honest guess is Heyward would get 1/15 or maybe 2/25 on the open market, at this point. So, I seriously doubt we'd put enough with Heyward, to move him. Chatwood? Maybe, I guess? I think it's be to a rebuilding team, looking to rehab his value, to put with a decent prospect or 2, in taking on the contract.

36 kids say "Daddy?"

We've got a truly interesting off-season ahead of us, under just about any circumstance. Bryce? Manny? No idea, but honestly think we'll get one of them..... That said, our payroll situation is going to be extremely interesting. Are we going to go over the luxury tax? Yeah, we will. Theo has kind of made mention of being strategical with it. That said, here's the thing....... The luxury tax will be set at 206 mill next year. Here are the penalties...... Go over and it's a 20, 30, and 50% taxes on the overages, IF you stay under the MAX penalty range, for the first 3 years of going over...... The max penalties are 42.5%, 45, and 45 for those 3 years. Plus a 10 spot draft pick penalty. It's just money. Could we go over that if we wanted to? Most definitely. But, no team has and I don't think a single team ever will. Not with the dogfight of the next CBA on the horizon and the players union looking at numbers that CURRENTLY show where the luxury tax SHOULD be set at 275 mill RIGHT NOW, based on revenues. Owners aren't going to give them that ammo heading into negotiations, everyone's staying under that top number......... If we sign a qualified FA, thinking of Bryce here obviously...... It costs is our 2nd and 5th round picks and pool money, plus 1 mill in IFA money too. Obviously, that stuff doesn't keep you from signing a guy. But, if you sign a guy, then also go over the top end of the tax? That's a hell of a draft hit to take, when your system is as shitty as ours is and we need to have ammo to trade from......Not a MAJOR thing here, but a minor reason we won't head past the top end...... Again, main reason being that no team is going to do it........ Still, where do we stand, heading into the offseason? Under Contract Luxury Tax Numbers Lester-25.833 Heyward-23 Darvish-21 Zobrist-14 Chatwood-12.667 Morrow-10.5 Rizzo-5.857 Cishek-6.5 Duensing-3.5 Smyly-5 Total-127.857 Options that will get picked up..... Quintana-10.5 Strop-6.25 Total-16.75 (144.627 Total) Arbitration Estimates..... Bryant-14.5, raise from 10.850 MLBTR-12.4 Hendricks-7.750, raise from 4.175 MLBTR-7.8 Russell-5, raise from 3.2. MLBTR-4.3 Seal Boy-1.2, raise from .950k MLBTR-1.2 Total-28.450 (173.077 Total) MLBTR-25.7 1st Year Arbitration Eligibles...... Javy- 4 MLBTR-7.1 Schwarber-3 MLBTR-3.1 Montgomery-2.3 MLBTR-3.0 Edwards-2.3 MLBTR-1.4 (Super Two) Total-11.6(184.677 Overall) MLBTR-14.6 The arb numbers are obviously guesses, but I doubt I'm off more than 2-3 mill in either direction. Other Options...... Hamels-20 Kintzler-5 Seriously, if one year of Hamels pitching anything NEAR this is available, then we pick up his option, no questions asked. Obviously we've got time to decide on him and his performance will dictate things...... Kintzler? We've got a 10 mill team option we'll decline. But, he's got a 5 mill p!ayers option. I'm a reliever heavy FA class, I bet he exercises his option and he's back...... For this purpose, we'll add him...... New Overall Total-189.677 Now, add in 5 or minimum level contracts to fill out the 25 Man roster. That's 2.750 mill more.....192.427 Now, add 2.5 more to fill out the rest of your 40 man. 194.927 Then, you are adding 12-15 mill for insurances and we're literally at or slightly above the luxury tax, before the off-season even begins...... Add Harper and we push the upper max. But, we've got small moves to relieve some salary too. Add Hamels too and we've got some serious decisions to make elsewhere...... My guess right now is we add Bryce at 35 per. Attach a small prospect to move Kintzler and Duensing. Trade 2 of Addy, Almora, and Happ to come up with the best starting pitcher we can get. Probably move Monty for a prospect or in the deal for a starter too. Nontender or deal Seal Boy. Hopefully, these moves give you the ability to sign Bryce, add a controlled starter, and leave us enough money to still pick up a reliever too. Along with money for the deadline...... Plenty of options...... Move Zobrist is a possibility. Or attach enough to move Chatwood. If you're not adding Bryce or Manny, you can probably add a Pollock and Andrew Miller combo for the same price as one of those 2. Anyway, lots of options....... But damn, it kind of starts with Hamels..... 20 mill. He continues on like this, I think it's a no brainer....... Thoughts??????

Bote isn't going anywhere. But I can definitely see one or two of Addy, Almora, and Happ being shipped out for pitching.

I think BA said in their midseason update, that Thompson flashes a plus slider and curve. Plus, if I'm not mistaken, they may have mentioned his velo being slightly higher than I had been under the impression it was. He's definitely put himself on the radar. First full year in the minors and he's probably starting next year off in Iowa. Hell of a season.

Off-season... Sign Harper, trade one or two of Addy, Happ, or Almora for the best starting pitcher you can get, and sign one of the big pen arms, since the class is loaded. I think this can be done and keep us under the top tier of the LT.

Abbott with an excellent outing, 6 3 0 0 1 5

Morel to SB this year? He's hitting now, which is great. But, he went .165/.172/.220 in 91 AB's for Eugene, with no walks and 29 K's...... Feel he's definitely heading back there to have success, before hitting A Ball. Feel confident he sees SB at some point next year though.

Don't think Lange listened today.

600k? Holy horsefeathers.

Geez, it appears we're truly bin hunting. I know our system is shitty, but we've got the ability to add Wheeler and Herrera as well. I want Theo to be scorched earth, but I don't think he is.

They're trying to add Realmuto.

Are you telling me that Morfa morfa-d into a catcher? Like how larva Morfthra becomes Morfthra even?! It's undocumented, but it appears as if this is, in fact, what has happened.

Navin had mentioned Pereda and Mekkes as the biggest omission and I agree.

Well, unless it's a mistake, Carlos Morfa's disappearance is likely related to the fact he played today as a C. Went 2-3 with a 2B.

Sounds like this is a Soler situation, where he's agreed before he's eligible and they have to go thru the process.

Dp

I'd trust her. She breaks little outside of minor league promotions. But she's reliable for sure. As an aside, I wonder what it'd take for us to add and steal Gaston from the Marlins? He got flagged for PED's and they backed out of a 3 mill agreement with him.

Oh well, neither Lopez or Morel are official. So, we've got 700k actually.

Its a hard cap, but you can still trade for up to 75% over your pool too. That number drops next year, to either 50 or 60%. This is the last year any teams are in the penalty box. So yeah, if you CAN roll it over, there's nothing stopping a team currently in the penalty box from using 2 years together and trying to get Mesa to wait until 2019 to sign.

I think you can roll money over now. Not 100% sure, but I think so. Even still, I can't get to 3.05 based on what we evidently spent last year.