davell

It's not a bad offseason. Never said it was. It's good. Even very good. (Although we're not going to be able to dump Chatwood and I don't see us moving Q)But, it's too much. We're not going over the max end of the LT. Don't see ANY team doing that, with the upcoming CBA war. That's ammo for the players union. It also would make it extremely tough to ever get back under the max, because new needs always pop up and all that. Plus the rising costs of our youngsters. On top of that, I honestly don't see the Marlins trading Realmuto. They've said they want to build around him. It's the Marlins, so hard to trust them. But, this FO seems dumb too, so they very well could hold onto him. Again, none of that even matters. It's too much hassle for us to go down that road. Especially when we have a very good C already. Keep it simpler. We don't need and won't have THAT much movement, because we've got an excellent team already.

To repeat. This has nothing to do with who is actually better. The only point that matters is that the monetary discrepancy between the two is a huge issue in any scenario where we're pursuing Bryce Harper and every dollar towards the high end of the LT matters. I do find it odd though, that in your scenario of how we're acquiring guys..... You've got us acquiring Realmuto for an Almora led package, when Robles wasn't enough to get it done in reality. All of this is a completely moot point, because we have much larger needs than at C and it's the height of stupidity to waste ours on that, when there's better ways to use them up out there.

Is this really a knock when Contreras lost those PAs due to injuries and being enough of a liability defensively that the team had to hire a caddy for the aces? Production wise it’s a very clear upgrade - you get more games, more defense, similar offense (but seemingly headed in opposite directions this year in Realmuto’s favor), not a world of difference in price tag once Contreras hits arb after next year.... You're literally using 2016 as part of your argument. A season in which Willy was in the minors until June 17th. That's probably 250 or those PA right there. Plus, Joe absolutely would rest Realmuto in the same way he rests Willy. And when Contreras hits arb, it'll be Realmuto's LAST year of arb. Then you're paying him even more, as a FA. The gap is going to widen, not close up.

It's not a true question on who's even better between Realmuto and Willy. I'm sure Willy's D frustrates everyone here. Meaning his framing, he's obviously got a cannon. Offensively, I am much less certain of which of those two are better next year...... Still, none of this is the point...... The point is that Willy is still pre-arb next year, has 4 years of control left. JT has 2 years left and will be getting expensive this offseason. Excellent year, coming off 2.9 in 1st Year arb..... We disagree on the amount, but it's not even the most important thing...... That extra money goes towards Bryce most likely. May cost you a player or two, to get Bryce, that you wouldn't have had to move, if you had just kept Willy. Then, if JT has a good 2019, he's likely looking around 12-15 mill his last year and then he's getting paid even more. Willy is just much more sensible.

Unfortunately, Chavez has likely raised his profile some. I figure he's getting between 3-5 mill next year from someone. Will it be us? I hope so. But, I'd understand if they're gunshy on relievers that are coming off great seasons. Like their horsefeathers up on Duensing.

Sell off Duensing and Kintzler, save 8.5 mill. Give Hamels 2/32. With the rest of the roster, this likely has you 7 or so OVER the LT..... Trade Russell and Montgomery for best pre arb reliever you can get. Saves the 7 mill you're over. Trade Happ and Amaya for best cost controlled starter that it gets you. Price no more than 4-5 mill. Give Bryce 36 per, for 12 years of whatever. C Contreras, Caratini 1B Rizzo 2B Zobrist, Seal Boy SS Baez 3B Bryant, Bote LF Schwarber CF Heyward, Almora RF Bryce Rotation- Lester, Quintana, Hendricks, Darvish, Hamels, Chatwood, Smyly, cost controlled guy Pen- Morrow, Edwards, Strop, Cishek, Rosario, cost controlled pen guy from trade, Norwood, Maples, Mills, Alzolay, Webster That team puts you at the top end of the LT, with damn near no flexibility for in season moves..... And there's still a need for at least one established pen guy. Plus, it'd be nice to get Rivera or some other defensive minded backup C. So, let's say we put 10 mill into the pen guy or the pen guy, plus backup C..... You also know they'll want 5-10 mill for in season moves...... So, we'd need to cut 15-20 mill off this roster, to stay under the LT..... Options..... 1) No Hamels. I want him back, but he IS older..... 2) pay big to unload Chatwood. 3) Trade off Zobrist Alternative..... Don't sign Bryce. Still get rid of Duensing and Kintzler. Sign Hamels for 2/32. Still have 30 mill to play with..... And Russell, Almora, Happ, and Monty are still at your disposal. Tons of options..... Pay up for a pen arm or two? With a FA starter?(unlikely) Still trade for your cost controlled starter? Likely. Go after Pollock? No idea.

Are you guys talking about Ken Giles? The idiot with seriously bad makeup concerns? horsefeathers no, we're not trading for that loser... [tweet] [/tweet] Just move on guys. Theo and Jed aren't making a trade for him lol. I'm not suggesting adding him. I'm just saying that he's not going to be used as bad salary. They can non tender him, if they think he's not worth his arb number.

Before editing, you asked where your roster would be payroll-wise. Arb figures are what I used in my original post for our guys, although I could see Javy and Schwarber both being a mill higher. I've got your roster at 188. That's with Hamels on a 2/32 deal, not just picking up his option. That's with Realmuto at 8, Stroman at 9, Giles at 5. This is not including the rest of the 40 Man salary, which is around 3 mill. This figure does not include 12-14 mill for insurances. And while I think we WILL attach something to move Duensing and Kintzler deals, we're not attaching what it's going to take to move Chatwood. But, let's say we do..... You're basically at the LT, after making those moves, AND getting rid of all of Chatwood's deal...... Then, you've still got to sign Bryce. And Diekman and Kelly. I will guess Diekman gets 1/4.5 and Kelly gets 1/7. Bryce gets 12/432, or 36 per...... All in all, you're around 5-8 mill over the top end of the LT. But again, this is with us trading off Chatwood, Duensing, and Kintzler, without taking on ANY salary at all. Probably shooting high on Realmuto (5-6), Stroman(7-8), Diekman (4), and Kelly's (5) salary by about $5.5 million so there's some room there...Overall that seems like something that can be worked with? Until the next imagined offseason! Agree to disagree on the numbers there. Especially Realmuto, who's having a hell of a year. Think he gets a huge raise. And I feel Kelly gets paid well just for his velo, if nothing else. It's possible I'm overshooting on Diekman or Stroman, but not all 4. I'm the end, you're basically making all these extra moves, to wind up with Realmuto and Stroman, which raises payroll and isn't guaranteed to be better than Willy and Quintana. I'm not opposed to adding Stroman. Realmuto seems definite overkill. Like I said originally, we've got 2 of 3 of Addy, Happ, and Almora, plus Monty to move for pitching...... If Stroman is part of that equation, I'm fine with it. But, im.not advocating giving them 2 of those 3 and Monty for him. That's too much, in my eyes.

Giles peripherals are solid. Hes not a bad contract. And if he WAS, they'd non tender him anyway. Now Chatwood, on the other hand, has 2/25.5 left on his deal. In all honesty, if he's a FA, what's he getting from a team? 1/4 was my honest guess. But, an incentive laden minor league deal is a legit possibility. Plenty of low end options out there, that are cheap. No reason why anyone needs to pay up for him. Don't see us trading him at the absolute lowest his value could get.

That roster isn't blowing up the LT* as Realmuto only has one less year pre-FA year* *Not sure if true Before editing, you asked where your roster would be payroll-wise. Arb figures are what I used in my original post for our guys, although I could see Javy and Schwarber both being a mill higher. I've got your roster at 188. That's with Hamels on a 2/32 deal, not just picking up his option. That's with Realmuto at 8, Stroman at 9, Giles at 5. This is not including the rest of the 40 Man salary, which is around 3 mill. This figure does not include 12-14 mill for insurances. And while I think we WILL attach something to move Duensing and Kintzler deals, we're not attaching what it's going to take to move Chatwood. But, let's say we do..... You're basically at the LT, after making those moves, AND getting rid of all of Chatwood's deal...... Then, you've still got to sign Bryce. And Diekman and Kelly. I will guess Diekman gets 1/4.5 and Kelly gets 1/7. Bryce gets 12/432, or 36 per...... All in all, you're around 5-8 mill over the top end of the LT. But again, this is with us trading off Chatwood, Duensing, and Kintzler, without taking on ANY salary at all.

Almora+ better be one hell of a lot of +, to get Realmuto, since they wanted Robles+, this past deadline. We're not trading Contreras. His pre-arb years and even early arb years are one of the reasons we may be able to fit Bryce into our payroll.

We've got this next year for the rotation..... Lester(L), Quintana(L), Hendricks, Darvish, Chatwood, Smyly(L), Montgomery(L), Hamels(L) With these guys in AAA, to provide more depth..... Alzolay,Mills, Clifton, Robinson, Rucker Honestly, that's the best DEPTH in AAA, that we'll have had in this regime's tenure. With AA being filled with more guy who have a legit shot at eventually providing innings in the majors at some point as well. Not elite arms, but lots and lots of fringe starter types, that a strength in numbers approach, will wind up having one of two of these guys eventually turning into Jason Hammel or something of that sort. Which, in all honesty, would be HUGE, for this organization. Just finding even backend cheap options...... On top of this depth, we've got a decision to make on Hamels. Who I suspect will be back. Whether it's picking up his 20 mill option of giving him a 2/32 Lackey type deal, I think he's back. So, let's add him to the top part now...... Personally, I don't give a horsefeathers about what hand a guy pitches with. However, we've got 5 lefties and 3 righties to start things off with...... And for that matter, Darvish and Chatwood are the 2 biggest questions of the 8. So, even if/when Montgomery gets dealt, it'll still most likely be a righty we go after. And considering our monetary situation, where we've got a surplus of position players and also very likely to go hard after Bryce, I'd suspect 2 of Almora, Happ, or Addy, plus Monty, is likely to be what we're trading to acquire us a controllable arm...... With our depth, I guess it's at least POSSIBLE, even if I don't particularly see it happening..... We could move one of those position players for a minor league arm, and use the other, plus Monty for a very nice pen piece. Or reverse that scenario....... Either way, we're heading into 2019 with at least Lester, Quintana, Hamels, Smyly, Hendricks, Darvish, and Chatwood. Plus our depth and likely one more addition via trade. Which makes this a very solid group. Chatswood is the easiest to hide in the pen. Which is what I'm guessing we do with him. Or even keeping him in EXST, to work on things, if his yips aren't gone. That still leaves us with 6, plus a trade addition..... The pen is full too, in all honesty. You've got the following...... Morrow, Strop, Edwards, Cishek, Duensing(L), Kintzler, Maples, Norwood, Rosario(L) Plus you've got Kyle Ryan(L), Danny Hultzen(L) and especially Allen Webster, that any to all of the 3 could conceivably get added to the 40 Man, prior to next year. Personally, I think Webster absolutely will. The other 2 being long shots. You also have Dakota Mekkes to factor in next year. Plus, a few guys who may survive the offseason, like Underwood or Hancock. On top of this, you've got Justin Wilson and Jesse Chavez. Who I think we'll be interested in bringing back. Chavez even provides more rotational depth..... Wilson likely becomes a bargain with so many relievers in the market too. My guess is 1/8 with an option probably keeps him...... Chavez comes in at 1/5 or something like that, maybe an option as well...... We'll fire Duensing and Kintzler into the sun and eat their money or attach something to move them. Anyway, if you're keeping 13 pitchers TOTAL, even accounting for an injury or 2..... We don't have many spots to play with. Let's say we keep ALL of Hamels, Wilson, and Chavez. Fire Duensing and Kintzler away and trade Montgomery....... You've got this..... Lester(L), Quintana(L), Hamels(L), Smyly(L), Chatwood, Hendricks, Darvish Morrow, Strop, Edwards, Cishek, Wilson(L), Chavez, Rosario(L), Maples, Norwood That's 16. And I honestly believe that at least one of the other guys I've mentioned, like Webster, Mills, or even Alzolay, make the roster next year...... And I suspect an additional starting pitcher AND an additional late innings pen arm is added too. Both thru trade, if we get Bryce. Thru FA for the pen arm, if we miss out on him. At any rate, I think Hamels, Wilson, and Chavez are all back. Monty, Duensing, and Kintzler are gone..... And we'll only have room for one addition each, for the rotation and the pen. Most likely done thru trade, in both cases. With 2 of Almora, Happ, and Addy, plus Monty, as the main bait. Fun off-season ahead.

Help yourself to the comments.....

Yeah, nice breakdown, pretty much what I'd suspect, at this point from him. Add a couple MLB and develop a plus pitch and an above average, or multiple above average pitches, and we've got a serious prospect. Fornow, he probably falls somewhere between 15-25 or so, for me, but with his arrow pointing upwards. It'll be nice to see him make the NWL Top 20 from BA. I'm thinking he probably will.

Yeah, Jack makes everyone better. When will be be ready to play though? And when will Roquan be fully ready? I'm not going to raise my expectations TOO much for 2018. 2019 is a different story though. As for giving up 2 1sts...... Realistically, after the pick has been made, more often than not, you make this trade with zero hesitation. Not easy to find top 5 defensive studs.

Can't wait to see a scouting report on him, to help us understand how excited we should be. As a side note, to any of those on Twitter, that like prospects...... This dude has quickly become a must follow.

I think Wilson is the perfect OFer from our system to get the nod. He's got upside(unlike most of our full season OFers) and could put himself on the map if he flashes enough tools. The Red Sox got 8 guys, Oakland got 7, Detroitgot 6, while the Angels and us took 4. No idea if we add pitching via the taxi squad or not. But, it seems like we should get an extra guy or 2 anyway.

https://www.cubsinsider.com/2018/08/28/new-tv-deal-could-earn-cubs-additional-100-million-in-annual-revenue/ Pretty solid breakdown. Basically expects the new TV deal to give us an extra 100 mill or so a year.

Jesus lol

I think this is the best there is.(second one)

Pretty solid breakdown, but there's a few things I don't see happening. Short is DEFINITELY interesting obviously, but I'm pretty hesitant to jump on him because of his K rate right now. I hope we see him or Giambrone in the AFL. I'm past EJM. I think he was massively overhyped and he's done little to make me think any sort of breakout is on the horizon. I guess Burks is a guy that conceivably gets a bump from the PCL. He's just not a guy I'm very excited about currently. When we didn't protect him after his good 2016 AA season, he lost a lot of luster in my eyes. Admittedly, that shouldn't have influenced me as much as it did. Since I had him top 10 for most of that year. And especially since I'm a fan of DJ Wilson, for some reason. Who's not been as good as Burks and can't stay healthy. I'm hopeful that he gets an AFL slot and things come together for him next year, as he's obviously extremely toolsy. Ademan getting a promotion to AA? After this season? Honestly, I think there's a much better chance he'd get demoted to South Bend, before getting a promotion. Hyperbolic, as I suspect he'll just repeat Myrtle Beach. But, he's just horsefeathers the bed this year. Don't see him getting an AFL nod, because those are kind of like rewards and also because getting extra reps for Short or Giambrone is more important currently for us, for trade purposes or whatever our plans are for those guys. Amaya in the AFL? I'd like to see it. But, my guess is we'll give him some rest after his first year of full season ball, especially with him showing some signs of slight fatigue already. Plus, with Pareda being Rule 5 eligible, I suspect he's our Catcher that gets the nod this year. Especially since he's turned himself into a legit prospect in his own right. We could go blah and send Higgins or Rice though, I guess, if we want to hide Pareda. Not a fan of Velezquez' penchant for K'ing, but he's handled his demotion well and he's got big upside. I'm excited to see him back at South Bend next year. I love what we've seen from Roederer so far and he's definitely a possibility for South Bend next year. But, it's not a given. Gutierrez does very little for me, I think he's a 4th OFer next year in South Bend. Don't see him getting starters AB's. Why on these two things? Not sure Herron gets an auto bump to Myrtle Beach, first of all, although it's possible. But, even if he does, you've got DJ Artis in CF for South Bend anyway next year. Unless HE gets that jump himself. I like his skill set a lot and probably have him in my personal top 25 or so. On top of him, you've got Jonathan Sierra, who's going to be in SB too, with plenty of upside. Maybe Fernando Kelli too? He's not hit in Eugene, but I guess he could move up. If so, it makes it tougher for Roederer too. Who there's no need to rush at this point anyway. For some reason, I like Vazquez too and think he's got breakout ability. The power has been unexpected, in my mind. Add that to his glove and he's very interesting, even with his lack of a stellar batting line. Overall though, I'm definitely excited to see the progress next year on the hitting side of things, as I agree that it's going to take a large jump.

No. Trade 1 or 2 of Addy, Almora, and Happ for as good of a starting pitcher as you can get. Bote stays and gives us solid production and depth as a 9th or 10th guy.