davell

Looks like there's a good possibility of Arizona trading Greinke and Goldschmidt, at least. I'd be very interested in Archie Bradley..... The Padres have a serious 40 Man crunch coming, it'd be nice to find a way to take advantage of that. The Braves have so many arms, I'd love to find a way to grab one or two from them somehow. I've brought up some pen arms..... Jimenez in Detroit, Rogers in Minnesota, Yates and Castillo in San Diego, Dominguez in Philly......(if it Schwarber going back, I would want more. If it's Happ, these guys make sense) Anyone got any other ideas?

So? Is my first reaction. Can't expect a Boras client to cave this quickly anyway. Second reaction is trading him coming off his 2018 wouldn't maximize his value anyway. Third reaction, again, nothing to see here...... Fourth reaction, I am at least curious what kind of godfather package you could pry out of the Braves and Padres.... Fifth reaction, Kap is an idiot of the highest power, as he evidently brought up trading KB for Greinke lol.

I think we'd get more than just one of that group for Schwarber. An Alzolay type starter prospect too, perhaps?

If you're dealing Schwarber or Happ, my guess is we target one of Joe Jimenez, Taylor Rogers, Yates or Castillo from the Pads, some of Atlanta's arms, or Seranthony Dominguez. If you did that, add Robertson, and bring back Chavez..... Our pen looks extremely good, to say the least.

If that’s the most compelling case on not signing both, I am keeping the door open. It’s obviously an extreme longshot, but it’s a positive non-zero that it can happen. They’re not the richest but they are loaded and in position to make a horsefeathers ton more with both on board. Meh on doing anything but rebuilding again if they miss out on Harper or Machado. This team’s not going anywhere if they somehow missed in an offseason with two Beltrans available BTW: I’m not that committed to that many players on this roster. Do everything to keep Bryant healthy, probably keep Rizzo because he’s usually cool, maybe Hendricks?...everyone else can sweat it out for at least a little bit I know you're not the biggest fan, but Javy definitely should be in that group. I think this team has plenty of options as far as improving and on paper still have a fantastic team, as it is right now. Playoffs, crapshoot, all that stuff...... You still have to sign guys. Harper AND Machado? If you need me to say there's a Jim Carrey Dumb and Dumber "So, you're telling me there's a chance!" type of chance, then OK. But, it's obviously tiny as horsefeathers and would require other teams taking asleep at the wheel too.

But, we're not far from the upper end now. That's the thing...... We're sitting around 232 if you count everything up...... Which honestly, at this point, it makes more sense to just pick up Hamels option(included in that number) than extending it out. Because I'm sure we know we're heading over immediately. But, it is why trading Schwarber, as much as I don't want to, makes a lot of sense. Saves 3-4 mill this year, probably double that the following year, and probably nets you something really good that's controllable too. Honestly, we NEED Alzolay, and a few others to turn themselves into guys we can pencil in to our 25 man, by this time next year. Or else, we're definitely staying over then too.

The reason not to go over is because no one has, as of yet. And with the next CBA looming and definitely going to be extremely contentious...... Seeing a team go past the upper limit, it gives the players side more credence. Since the LOW end of the LT should be pushing 275 right now, based on current revenues...... Owners colluding, whatever, but that's the hows or why's as to why not. I've studied our cap, I've studied other teams too..... I think there's multiple teams, includingus, that WILL say horsefeathers it, if they can nab either of those guys...... In the Cubs case, my honest guess is they'd want to fall back beneath the top end, if at all possible, the following year...... In order to do that, you'll have Rizzo counting around 9 mill more than previously. You'll have KB's 3rd arb year, same with Hendricks, Javy's 2nd year, Schwarber's 2nd year, Willy's 1st, and more guys that are lesser players also in arb too. Some of which may or may not still be around, like Almora, Monty, Edwards, and Seal Boy.....Extremely hard to project arb numbers for this season, much less after next year lol...... BUt, let's say those guys combined salaries SHOULDN'T go up more than 28 million combined, from where they're at currently..... But, you'll have Hamels, Zobrist, Morrow, Cishek, Strop, Kintzler, Duensing, and Smyly coming off..... Around 71 million. The key will be finding some cheaper replacements for those that are coming off the books. Or possibly trading off a guy or two already making money..... Like Quintana or Schwarber, for instance, in playing the 2 year game..... This is our window. Maybe we don't even go back under at all, until all the contracts come up after 2021..... It's a possibility. But, signing Machado AND Bryce? Are we the only team in MLB? Are we even the richest team to begin with? The answer is no and there's no way in hell we sign them both. If we MISS on Bryce and Manny, that's the real question...... Are we willing to go over the top end at THAT point? If it got you a Donaldson or Pollock, plus a good reliever or two, I THINK we still would?

Both Bote and Seal Boy are likely to be mainstays next year, in my mind. I feel pretty sure at least one of Schwarber or Happ is going to get dealt. If we use MLBTR's arb estimates, we're basically sitting at 232 mill for luxury tax purposes...... With a 246 Top End Hurdle...... The 232 includes the following...... All players under contract and options getting picked up on Quintana, Strop, Hamels, and Kintzler picking up his. Also includes minimum salary guys, 3 million cushion for in season callups, 2.25 for the rest of your 40 Man roster, and 15 million for player benefits and insurance...... The 232 does not include Addison Russell. We can lower Hamels number. We might not even need to, there's a chance his LT hit is just 14..... I think that we definitely are going to go balls out to get Bryce or Manny. And I suspect we'll add a very solid reliever too. Not a 40-50+ mill guy, but a David Robertson type. And I can see us going after whichever SS falls in the market, in the group of Iglesias, Mercer, Galvis, or Hechevarria.......(Hoping for Marwin Gonzalez personally) At any rate, I feel pretty confident that we'll have the ok to get past the top end. But probably only if we land one of the 2 big guys. Granted, we wouldn't need to go past it, unless it's for them. If the Dodgers or Yankees get one of those 2 and still full their teams out normally, they're going over too. Same with Red Sox, if they went after either. So, I'm pretty confident we're willing to go past it. Likely with the idea of trying to get back under it the following year, with Zobrist, Morrow, Cishek, Smyly, maybe Hamels coming off the books......(More reason to.just pickup Hamels option actually)

MLBTR Arbitration Estimates..... Kris Bryant-12.4 Kyle Hendricks-7.6 Javy Baez- 7.1 Kyle Schwarber-3.1 Mike Montgomery -3.0 Carl Edwards Jr-1.4 Tommy La Stella-1.2 If they tender him...... Addison Russell-4.3

It makes sense, as a breakdown. With injuries, I guess it's not likely. But, it really makes me wonder if we keep both Monty and Smyly. Because if you do only need 12-15 starts out of guys not in your 5, do we NEED/WANT both guys taking pen spots? Granted, injuries could change the equation easily. But, we've still got plenty of depth of one of those 2 is moved.

Ton of options..... 5 or 6 Man rotation? Rotating 10 guys thru 8 pen spots? Any other additions to.the rotation? How many to the pen?

Looking thru our pitching staff, things are almost definitely going to be unconventional next year. Because no matter how things shake out, I can't fathom us having more than 13 pitchers on our 25 Man Roster, at any point. Granted, we've got guys who'll be injured, guys who'll be ineffective too..... But, we've got a LOT of arms, and it's interesting to try and define what we still need and how guys will be used going forward...... The Starters Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Yu Darvish, Tyler Chatwood, Drew Smyly, Mike Montgomery, Adbert Alzolay, Jen Ho Tseng, Duane Underwood, Oscar de la Cruz, Alec Mills Option held- Cole Hamels Free Agents- None AAA guys who may factor in- Trevor Clifton, Duncan Robinson The Bullpen Closer- Brandon Morrow Set Up- Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards Jr, Steve Cishek Middle Relief- Brian Duensing, Randy Rosario, Justin Hancock, Dillon Maples, James Norwood, Allen Webster Option Held- Brandon Kintzler Free Agents- Jesse Chavez, Justin Wilson, Jaime Garcia, Jorge de la Rosa AAA guys who may factor in- Dakota Mekkes, Kyle Ryan What to do with the starters...... We know Lester, Quintana, Hendricks, and Darvish are in the rotation, if they're healthy. We also have a very good idea that Hamels is coming back. So, that's your 5, right? But, what happens to Smyly and Montgomery? Chatwood too, for that matter, if he somehow is better next year? Alzolay provides solid depth, the rest are basic fodder, outside of Mills, who has no options left, and seems destined for the pen, if he makes the team..... Chatwood could easily be outrighted, if he sucks again. The roster spot is better used elsewhere, than on his current version. But, do Smyly or Monty turn this into a 6 Man Rotation? Would we consider that for the entire year? We know they're willing to, on occasion...... Plus, you've got to figure we'll add another Mills or Butler type. And there's a non zero chance that if we deal a Happ or Schwarber, that an upper level starter is part of that return too...... In the end, my guess is they use a normal 5 man, but with stretches of using a 6 man, that maybe adds up to 2 months...... Which conceivably pushes Smyly and Monty to the pen. Where Mills will have a chance to be included too. Same with Alzolay. This is damn near impossible to project lol. Morrow is somewhere, if he's healthy. Same with Strop, Cishek, and Carl. But, Carl having a forearm issue and a big loss of velo(92ish) are cause for concern. Kintzler and Duensing will be back. Unless we DFA, trade, or release them. I seriously doubt they get a spot, unless they shine in the spring though. A guaranteed contract doesn't save either. The live arm section is DEEP. It includes Hancock, Rosario, Maples, Norwood, Ryan, Webster, and Mekkes. Who really seems like a contributor by mid year, at the latest. But seriously, you've got 4 spots filled. They're Morrow, Cishek, Edwards, and Strop. Smyly and Monty are 2 more that are guaranteed roster spots, if they're not in the rotation...... We've not mentioned Chavez or Wilson either. Seems like Wilson is a goner. But Chavez? Surely we find a way to bring him back, right? If you DO trade Happ or Schwarber, I'm guessing you're looking towards a Jimenez, in Detroit? Rogers in Minnesota? Castillo, Yates, or Erlin in SD? Dominguez in Philly? Or a trade with Atlanta, for some of their depth? Anyway, looking thru things, I fully expect Hamels back. Rotation is set. And I'm expecting Chavez back, plus an addition by trade of one of Schwarber or Happ. If Chavez isn't back, then a FA addition too. We're built to withstand some injuries for sure. So, I'm thinking it's a quality over quantity approach at this stage..... Rotation- Lester, Hendricks, Darvish, Hamels, and Quintana Pen- Morrow, Cishek, Edwards, Strop, Smyly, Monty, FA acquisition, trade acquisition...... And then EVERYONE else after that lol. I'm actually extremely pleased with the depth. And think that having THIS much, the 6 Man gets emp!oyed recently in stretches. And the pen may even rotate a guy or two in constantly. Phantom DL'ing or whatever, to truly help keep guys fresher. With our depth, I think it's almost a definite strategy to be used going forward. So, after all this, I expect Hamels, a traded for guy, and either Chavez or another FA acquisition..... But, the depth is extremely solid, and I'm thinking we'll use a 6 Man and basically rotate 10 guys thru the pen constantly, if they're actually healthy. Thoughts on where you expect the FO to take the staff, as a whole, this offseason?

If they DO deal Schwarber, I hope the return is more than just a good pen guy honestly.

As an FYI, I listened to a podcast with Ben Finfer, that had Sharma, Mooney, and Greenberg on it...... A few highlights..... Feel even more confident in Hamels being back, than Joe. They also all feel we'll make the Rangers pay the 6 mill buyout. Expect him to sign a multi year deal. Expect Almora back. Expect Happ back, because the Cubs think more highly of him than other teams do. Expect Schwarber to be dealt. Said they came really close to dealing him last offseason. Needs are a back end of the pen option, a middle infielder, and a big middle of the order bat. With a backup C being possible too. In non roster news, they questioned if Rizzo is too laid back to be the leader. Mentioned Javy and Strop as guys that are really starting to speak up more. Almora and Schwarber took the WC Game loss particularly hard, a few guys were acting like nothing had happened.

The Angels aren't poor. And NO ONE is stupid enough to lessen the value of the best player in baseball, with one of the worst contracts in baseball.

We ain't got a match for Trout. Based on surplus value, I think it actually equates to 3 top 10 hitting prospects in all of baseball.

Manny- .822 Career OPS (926 games) Bryce- .900 Career OPS (927 games) Manny- 33.8 bWAR Bryce- 27.4 bWAR Manny- 30.2 fWAR Bryce- 30.7 fWAR Manny OPS last 3 seasons- .905, .782, .876 Bryce OPS last 3 seasons- .889, 1.014, .814 I get why we all love Bryce..... But I'm going to be just as happy if we bring Manny in. In fact, I honestly believe Manny fits this roster better. Because it gives you the other guy you've got to find that can play SS. Don't get me wrong, Bryce is the guy I think is more likely to come here. But, I think.these guys are extremely evenly matched at worst.

Mark Gonzalez has an article out on who he expects back and who is expected to go..... The surprises/interesting ones..... Hamels-staying,says pitched well enough to earn option. Theo seems adamant too, so not a surprise. Kintzler- staying, one of those options is used. His obviously. Montgomery- staying, says he'll face similar swing role. Personally thought he may be expendable. Quintana- staying, only surprised by comment saying Cubs would likely move on, if not for Darvish, Chatwood uncertainty. Almora- staying. Bote- staying, utility role next year. Caratini - staying, versatility could lead to more playing time Seal Boy- knows his role well Chavez- going, says could earn multi year deal elsewhere De La Rosa- going, says he filled a glaring need Duensing- going, says ineffectiveness means no guarantees Wilson- going, says pitched well enough to earn robust deal elsewhere Happ- going, says he's trade fodder for pitching depth Russell- going, says after DV, he's unlikely to return Schwarber- going, says power makes him attractive to AL teams Obviously, this seems to be opinion. But, it's possibly based on what he's heard. Anyway, some of these are very interesting.....

I'm not sure if anyone's ever gone down. I think you have to offer at least 80% of their prior year. That said, it's only done then, if it's someone that's a complete non tender candidate. And even then I think teams basically give them the same as the year before or even a very slight raise. My guess is KB gets between 13-15 mill next season. He'll definitely get a raise.

I think I've read he actually wants to stay put and they want him back too. Money talks and all caveats obviously.

We need a guy who can put the bat on the ball in clutch situations (to move runners over, to hit a sacrifice fly, etc.). I'm tired of watching batter after batter swing for the fences and then strike out with men in scoring position. We have too many all-or-nothing hitters. I'm tired of this constant complaint at the end of every Cubs season. A certain segment of the audience always claims the thing the Cubs need is fewer all or nothing hitters and more contact guys. We need guys who can catch the ball.

I like Hamels a lot. But, you can't give him 20 mill, unless we're just A-OK blowing last the top end of the luxury tax. If we are, then keeping him in a one year commitment makes perfect sense, considering the control we've got over the rest of our rotation. But, no one is going to give him a guaranteed 3 years based off 12 or however many starts he made for us, at his age. If the Luxury Tax is a concern, you've gotta let him walk and add a different one year, depth option type. If we need more than that, I think we wait until the deadline to attack it.

Kyle isn't being negative there, it's kind of the truth. Did anyone really expect Rizzo or KB to actually get better? That would be damn hard to do. I DO expect KB to get back towards where he's been. He was just hurt this year obviously. Rizzo probably sticks in the 3-4 WAR range for a few years. I'm sure most figured Russell WOULD continue to get better. He didn't and now he's not a guy we even expect to be with us at all. That was worst case scenario. Javy? horsefeathers, was this a career year? Personally, I think the answer is no. But, it may be and that's still way better than most ever figured out of him. Schwarber? I DID think he'd lower the K's and hit lefties better. That hasn't happened and I doubt it will going forward. Ok, so he's a 3 WAR guy. With more power still possible at least. Nothing wrong with that outcome at all. Contreras? Ups and downs, I suspect he'll improve from 2018. But, he's not a potential MVP or anything. Almora? Eh, he's a fine cheap guy. The thoughts of him being a 3 WAR type though is gone though. An upgrade and him being a 4th OFer seems like what should happen. Happ? I think the K's are always going to be frustrating. But, I suspect that he's a 25+ homer guy, if he's given full season AB'S, with good discipline. Zobrist likely takes a step back next year. But, maybe if you give him 2 days off a week, he'll stay in this realm? But, my guess is he'll decline a decent amount. Heyward? Jesus, I guess he's a low .700 OPS guy now and won't ever be more. Bote? Personally, I suspect he's a .750 OPS guy going forward. A guy that can give us 400 PA, that we're just fine with. So, a better KB and Willy, a lesser Zobrist, with the rest of the guys likely canceling any progress or regression out, as a whole. Replace Happ(trade for pitching)with Marwin Gonzalez or Eduardo Escobar. Add Harper. Fire Chili. Best offense in the NL next year. Probably by a lot.

Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Schwarber was absolutely a decent LF this year and will continue to be, if he keeps the weight down.

I'd think they go like this..... 1- Schwarber- At least to some American League teams. He's a relatively proven power bat, that has made strides defensively in the Outfield too. 2- Happ- The versatility and upside power, along with the control, are obvious reasons teams will like him. Discipline too. The swing and miss is the main reason they wouldnt. But, I think he's very close to Schwarber, because of the extra control. 3-Edwards- A clear step below the first two. May be even lower currently, due to the lack of velo at the end, the forearm issue involved, and his recent struggles because of this. Honestly, he may be off the board for some teams, due to the unresolved forearm issue. If he's given a clean bill of health, he's an easy 3rd here though. 4- Almora- He's got plenty of warts. But, he's a solid defensive CF(at least for now) and hits lefties pretty well. Honestly, I doubt his value is ever higher than it is currently. But, he may be a guy more valuable to keep, than what we could get via trade. 5- (Tie) Bote and Montgomery- Bote has to learn to hit or lay off the upper zone stuff, but I think he will. He has lots of versatility and an attorney excellent glove. His value is rising. Montgomery seems like a guy who has mid rotation upside, but may fit best in his current role of swing guy. Not sure where his value lies, but I'd figure it's more because of his versatility, than because a team is completely sold he's a long term rotation answer. In prospect terms, here's my guesses as to what these guys are worth..... Schwarber- Top 50 prospect, plus a top 10 guy from a decent system. Happ- Top 50 prospect, plus a top 30 guy from a decent system. Edwards- Top 125 prospect, plus top 20 guy from a decent system. Almora- Top 150 prospect, plus top 30 guy from a decent system. Bote- Top 10 and top 20 prospect from a decent system. Montgomery- Top 10 and top 20 prospect from a decent system. Addison Russell seems like he'll get released. I definitely think that's what we'll do, if we can't find a trade. If we can find a trade, I think it'd be dependent on him getting "cleared", meaning no suspension. I don't see this happening at all, nor should it. But, if it does somehow, I figure some team may give up 2 top 30 guys from a decent system, in order to take their shot. But I think it would need to happen before we even are required to tender him, because I don't think we will. Not that I think we'll trade him, but I think Contreras still has VERY solid value, slightly more than anyone on this list. I figure even after his down year, you could get a top 50 prospect, plus a top 150 guy as well. And if not, I don't think there's any chance we'd consider moving him. Further down, I figure to move Duensing or Kintzler, it takes a top 15-20 prospect from our system. To move Chatwood, it'd take a top 100 guy.