davell

This team is going to wind up winning some games. They need to lose as much as possible thru the end of the year. Because I think they'll play close to .500, from January on, if they get the rest of the year to have LaVine, Carter, Lauri, and Dunn mesh..... I want as much of a shot as possible at lucking into Williamson. Or Barrett. Or Reddish. Or Little. But mainly Williamson. Holy horsefeathers.

This quote sure doesn't scream like we're going nuts this offseason.

It might be Theo putting it out there, hoping to get Ricketts to change his mind, because everyone's pissed.

If we have to skimp somewhere in order to get Bryce, my vote is for it to be the pen. I think that between dealing Happ or Schwarber for a good pen arm and using our group of Webster, Maples, Norwood, Alzolay, Mekkes, and others- that we'd find a serviceable group. And address it at the deadline, if Carl and/or Morrow are broken.

I'd be thrilled to get Cozart for Chatwood.

Morosi's column this morning literally mentioned us being more enamored with future FA classes, and brought up Arenado specifically. horsefeathers, this is the "excuse" they're gonna run with?

Next year's class is the following position players..... Goldy-32 Gennett-30 Bogaerts-27 Gregorius-30 Arenado-29 Rendon-30 Ozuna-29 Hicks-30 Castellanos-28 Puig-29 And MAYBE JD opts out of 3/62 at age 32...... So, what the horsefeathers are we waiting on? You don't get chances at guys like Bryce or Manny often. And if you hold off, you've got THIS group, which doesn't compare to either of those 2 guys. (Maybe Arenado, but I doubt we'd ask KB to change positions, unless we don't plan on keeping him)

But, is he? He said Maddon was getting fired if they lost the WC card game.

All of Theo's prior comments have alluded to having funds available for this exact situation. If they don't have them now, I'm damn near certain that Theo got blindsided by Ricketts at the end of the season org meetings, where they discuss budget and all that stuff.

I don't think there's any chance we go to the 250's. Honestly, I think it's extremely likely we stay under the 246 top tier. In fact, I agree we may have 2 separate payroll areas too. 246 or under with Bryce, 226 or under without him. But, I don't think there's any chance we wind up in the 250's. If by some slim chance we go past the 246 mark, I think we go to at least 265, maybe even 275. It doesn't make sense to be taxed harder and take the pick penalty, unless you take complete advantage of it. Like we did on IFA's before that loophole closed.

So, try it sometime?

December 13th 12:21 AM Rosenthal- Duensing to Mariners Gordo- Cubs cost cutting continues as Cubs send Victor Caratini away to get out from Duensing' 3.5 million 12:25 AM Heyman- Kintzler to Oakland Nightingale- Cubs appear to be selling off Greenberg- Theo is trolling the horsefeathers out of us. 12:30 Passan- Alex Lange packaged with Kintzler for ptbnl Sharma- Cubs save 8.5 million late Wednesday night Craig Edwards- I almost feel bad for Cubs fans 12:33 AM Tim Brown- Sources: Tyler Chatwood to Texas Sharma- This may be a long night 12:36 AM Rosenthal- Cubs closing in on Bryce Harper Rogers- Wow Greenberg- Holy horsefeathers Heyman- Cubs making late push for Bryce Lavine- More deals expected as Cubs Hendry gets busy 12:38 AM Nightingale- Cards feel they've got great shot on Harper Gordo- Cubs cost cutting continued with late night sale Lavine- Epstein, not Hendry 12:39 AM Passan- Miguel Amaya, Cubs top prospect, included in Chatwood move. Heyman- Braves get Schwarber Brisbee- Theo is a Gangsta, you guys should have kidnapped him, like I said. Keith Law- Hearing Brailyn Marquez has been dealt to Texas 12:40 AM Rosenthal- Cubs and Harper closing in on 400 million dollar deal. Derrick Gould- Cards try, but fall short in Harper pursuit Joel Sherman- Cubs get Minter Bowden- No one is answering my texts Rogers- I am just waiting to see the final tally, there's another move or two. Mooney- How Maddon and Theo clashed on Morrow usage 12:41 AM Passan- Full deal: Cubs send Chatwood, Miguel Amaya, Brailyn Marquez, and ptbnl to Toronto for Ryan Tepera Heyman- Carlos Quintana to Phillies Sharma- Sweet Lord Keith Law- Holy horsefeathers Brisbee- The Giants, horsefeathers it, I'm a Cubs fan, and we should all be. Nightingale- Cubs move on from bad contracts of Kintzler and Duensing Lavine- Roman Quinn traded to Cubs Muskat- Theo Epstein has confidence Cubs will put a better product on field in 2019 12:43 AM Bowden- Cubs evidently are busy this evening. Chris Crawford- My head is exploding Dayn Perry- This is fun and it sucks. It's ok to say this. Brisbee- Cubs trade for Steph and Klay, Obama, Game of Thrones rights, the Marvel Universe, and the animated version of the Wendy's Where's the Beef Lady. I think they gave up a Stanley Nickel for these things. 12:44 Rosenthal- Full deal is Schwarber for Minter and Fried. Heyman- Chavez back to Cubs Passan- Hearing Cubs are getting Ranger Suarez as part of Quintana deal Gordo- Cubs showing interest in Harper Peter Gammons- Theorstucidoreblomngs 12:47 AM Sharma- Ian Happ is being traded to Colorado Brisbee- I've been known to cut fools that aren't Cubs fans Lavine- Cubs trade for Bob Dernier 12:48 Lavine- Disregard last post, I'm having a beer with him. 12:49 Lavine- Cubs give Chavez 1 year deal for 5 million Bowden- Cubs are making some moves 12:50 Rosenthal- Cubs trade Ian Happ straight up for Jon Gray 12:51 Heyman - Cubs giving Harper 16/400. Multiple opt outs. Julie DiCaro- Sources- Cubs closing in on Bryce Harper 1:55 AM Sharma- Recap of trades today 1) Duensing and Caratini to Seattle for ptbnl-salary saver 2) Kintzler and Lange to Oakland for ptbnl-salary saver 3) Chatwood, Miguel Amaya, and Brailyn Marquez to Texas for ptbnl-salary saver 4) Quintana to Philadelphia for OF Roman Quinn and LHP Ranger Suarez 5) Schwarber to Atlanta for Minter and Fried 6) Happ for Jon Gray Signings 1) Chavez-1/5 2) Bryce-16/400

A Cubs Off Season via Twitter November 6, 2018 (Carlsbad, California) Gordo- Cubs expect to be bit players in Free Agency Sharma- Theo: "Yes, contrary to popular opinion, we DO we have a budget and it's on me and everyone in our department to do everything to the best of our abilities, to get the Chicago Cubs back to the World Series November 7, 2018 Rosenthal- Rival clubs expect Cubs to keep Luxury Tax number under the second tier. Nightingale- Cubs to set payroll under the Luxury Tax Manu- Just sell the team. November 8, 2018 Nightengale- Now that the Cubs run is over, why the Cards get Bryce Harper in Las Vegas November 15, 2018 Morrissey- As Cubs falter, has Theo Epstein checked out? November 19, 2018 Rogers- Breaking- Cubs bring back Rene Rivera Passan- Rivera gets 3 million Greenberg- Cubs having an off season that makes Pirates fans feel bad. November 24, 2018 Gordo- Theo Epstein to leave Cubs once current contract is up Mooney- Nothing to say, other than that's a writer's opinion, not a fact. Brisbee- Hey Theo, we like the cut of your jib, how to kidnap him(not really, but maybe) November 29, 2018 Rosenthal- Addison Russell is a non tender Rogers- Theo" We wish Addison Russell the best, but feel Javy is our best option at SS" Kelly Wallace- Why did this take this long? December 2, 2018 Rosenbloom- Theo Epstein to whimper out of Chicago December 4, 2018 Lavine- Cubs on periphery of Harper sweepstakes December 7, 2018 Muskat- Cubs Winter Meetings expect to be quiet Rogers- Theo- "We've got a good grasp of what we're trying to accomplish this off season. Our sole mission is to put the best possible team on the field as we can and we'll do that. Even if it takes all offseason. December 9, 2018 Sharma- Theo: "Come on, that's not even worth commenting on. You guys wonder why the National guys break lots of news? Really?" December 10, 2018 Greenberg- Sahadev, do we have a pass to Britney's concert? December 11, 2018 Muskat- Cubs putting lots of work in during expected slow paced off season December 12, 2018 10:43 AM Heyman- Cubs get Galvis Greenberg- Not even Mercer? 12:44 PM Gordo- Rival Execs- Cubs are frustrated 5:33 PM Rogers- Theo- "Its slow. We solidified our depth behind Javy and we feel good about that. We are keeping our heads up and bouncing ideas off everyone. 6:16 PM Sharma- Maddon- " The lights here hurt my eyes. That's why I'm down. I think we may need to show these dealers what a Hazelton Heart is. Greenberg- Joe has mailed it in. Mooney- Maddon won't talk to me. 11:38 PM Heyman- Dodgers looking good in Harper sweepstakes 11:47 PM Nightingale- Cardinals still in hunt for Bryce Harper Part 2 in 2nd Post......

I just listened to the Finfer/Sharma/Greenberg podcast. They're definitely not painting a pretty picture about this offseason. That said, we'll hear from Theo at the GM Meetings next week. That's when we'll know whether we've got the ability to get him or not. Personally, I'm starting to think that Theo just got blindsided by our end of the year org meetings and was told we've got budget restraints due to the uncertainty of the TV deal...... If that's the case, the Hamels deal doesn't matter, because they're more concerned long term, than short term. But again, it's just my hot take currently. We'll have a much firmer idea next week. Until then, it's all speculative.

Evidently so. Sharma says we want Chavez and Delarosa back and are interested in Doolittle, Will Smith, and Tony Watson in trade. Also said any money we were spending was going to offense this year.

I call bullcrap on Mooney there. These deals are always finalized at least a year out. And with how big and complicated they are, they damn sure are far enough along at this point to know at least what neighborhood it's in financially. Maybe it turns out to be a disappointment, but they know by now. Eh, with this market changing drastically and quickly too, it wouldn't shock me if they're not on firm enough ground to know where they stand yet. In fact, I prefer thinking that way, to knowing the deal isn't going to be nearly as lucrative as we had hoped....... Hell, signing Bryce increases value here too, is the funny thing.

What sucks is evidently we've got no real idea yet on what kind of money we'll be working with in the future. The massive TV deal window missed us by a bit obviously. But, it seems like he's saying this is a main reason they're so noncommittal right now too. I'll say this: I definitely don't think we're going past 246. The question becomes are we even certain we'll go past 226, if we can't get Bryce? And is the Hamels move, actually a no-brainer, because we already know we've got extremely long odds at Bryce? Maybe we've known this all along? He does say we'll get creative this offseason. But, you've got to wonder how many subtractions is worth it, to acquire Bryce?

I mean, they've both had TJS. The only reason Smyly missed 2 seasons is they waited forever for him to have his, for some reason. He didn't have his until very late June in 2016, despite not pitching up until then, with elbow issues. That supposedly came on from him pitching in the WBC, after throwing 170+ innings in 2016. Again, I just don't think a team wants to take on the higher paid head case. Personally, I wouldn't call 1.64 HR/9 almost 2 and his career is 1.50. He also has a career 2.54 BB/9, while Chatwood's is 4.73 and has become even more of an issue this past season. Let's just agree to disagree on this one.

From the "they suck, but I've kind of always liked them" pile of poop, Martin Perez and Matt Moore both had their options declined today.

How is a guy who hasn’t pitched in two seasons anything but a project? If the baseline for $7 million is just being able to pitch at all in 2019, Chatwood’s averaged 130+ innings the past three years and is currently healthy to Smyly’s less than 60 with a still in rehab TJ surgery cutting out two ML seasons I just look at it like the TJS rehab guy, who was a better pitcher to begin with, is the better bet to come back than the guy with the mental stuff going on personally. I think more teams would be willing to give Smyly 1/7 right now, a full year removed from his surgery, than they'd be willing to give Chatwood 2/10, or whatever. I'm truly not sure Chatwood would get anything close to that, in his current state.

Sharma's article today mentioned we're wanting to use most of our funds on hitting obviously. Mentioned we don't have it in the budget to sign a Miller or Britton. Said our dream guy is Doolittle, to pair with Morrow late in games. Also mentioned Will Smith and Tony Watson, as guys we're interested in. Also brought up we're interested in bringing back both Chavez and Delarosa.

Total aside question - when speculating a hypothetical Chatwood 2019 FA contract you go with 1/4 or something. Why does Smyly get $7 million from someone in, I assume, this same universe? Smyly’s missed two seasons There should be zero concern about ditching an arm who hasn’t pitched in two ML seasons and is coming off a major arm surgery to keep a way better pitcher I just look at it mainly thru the eyes of conceivably Smyly is ready to pitch in 2019. Full year removed from TJS. Chatwood? I think you've gotta look at him as kind of a headache/project at this point. Although, I'll give you the fact that he COULD be looked at as a change of scenery guy to plenty of teams. But, I can't see how anyone would give him anything remotely close to what he's owed. Honestly, if I look at him thru rose colored glasses, I guess I could see a rebuilding team willing to take on 2/10 in hopes they can straighten him out and flip him?

This is a weird move. If you're holding the 6 mill over the Rangers head, why do you deal them Smyly? Wouldn't Kintzler or Duensing, or BOTH, been more advantageous to us? BOTH is only an extra 1.5 mill from the Rangers side of things....... Seems like we could have sent them something pretty underwhelming to cover 1.5...... Instead, we send them a guy quite a few teams would probably take a one year flyer on at 7 mill...... We used zero leverage here. If it's to keep up good trade relations? Ok, I get that. But, Smyly wasn't going to be hard to move at all, so this seems more like a favor to them, in my eyes. One of Duensing or Kintzler being attached, would have made me feel better about this. This does truly feel like a pure cost cutting move. Fine, I guess. But, there needs to be more deals, more cutting, and then replenishing the spots we're losing....... This guy being the first gone seems odd to me. This guy being the first out, which hurts our NEEDED rotation depth, is NOT a great look, in my eyes......

[tweet] [/tweet] If this is the case, then why in the horsefeathers are you bringing back Hamels?

Realistically, the guys that conceivably make money and could be moved..... Arb guys first...... Schwarber- No, he's not going to make MUCH, but at his estimate of 3.1, if he brought back multiple pre arb arms? At least a possibility....... Russell- Yeah, this one SEEMS like a no-brainer. But, from a business standpoint, letting this guy walk or dumping him for scraps, definitely sucks. I hope they do it, but I'm readying myself for him to be around on Opening Day. He's scheduled to make in the range of 5 mill. Just replace him with Iglesias, Galvis, Mercer, or Hechavarria, salary should be in the same vicinity, if not less, for some of them....... Montgomery- Set to make around 3. Easy to move and kind of a surplus for us, with Smyly too. Plus, if he still wants to be a full-time starter? He's a possibility..... Edwards- Won't make a ton, less than 2 mill. If they think he's going to break down in 2019, I guess it's at least conceivable? Seal Boy- Will make under 2 mill, but does he really have a spot? If things are super tight against one of the tax numbers, he's an easy guy to shave down a bit further..... Realistically, I'd still rank Russell as most likely, followed by Monty, then Schwarber. Guys under contract...... Heyward- 5/105 left. 23 against the tax....... Open market, he gets what right now? 2/22ish? He could be dealt, but we'd be sending lots of money AND attaching lots of other pieces to him...... And he likes it here and has enough of a no-trade list, that he could make it extremely hard for us to find a match anyway........e Zobrist- Counts 14 against the tax, owed 12 mill..... He'd be easy to move. Let's hope he's not though. If he gets moved, that's a signal to me, that we're really over budget. Because he fits this team great. Chatwood- Counts 12.667 against the tax, has two years left. Literally would be lucky to get more than 2-3 mill, plus incentives right now, if that...... My guess is you'd need to attach Happ or Amaya to move him. Too steep for me. Maybe you can find a bad contract swap where we technically lower our tax number by a couple mill though? However, if we DID attach something good to move him, I'd take it to mean we must know we're getting Bryce. Quintana- Easy to trade. No idea what kind of return he'd bring..... Again, this one would be a red flag for me, that we're really up against a tight budget. Kintzler- Sucks we've got to deal with this, but my guess is he'd get 2 mill or so from someone. He can be moved by using a Caratini type. Or by including him with Schwarber, Happ, Almora, or part of a bad contract swap. Pretty decent chance he's a goner, in my mind. Duensing- Same as Kintzler, other than he'd probably be signing a minor league deal. Still, he's easily movable, just an annoyance. Darvish- Extreme long shot, but Evan Grant, the Rangers beat guy predicted they'd trade for him this offseason. I can't see it. But, who knows? Maybe getting out from half his deal and taking on a bad deal for the rest? Again, I'd guess 1% here, but figure it's worth bringing up..... Kintzler and Duensing are the easy ones. I think I'd put Chatwood 3rd here, with Quintana close behind, if he brought us back something pretty solid. Any of the others would shock me honestly...... As for pre arb guys, or guys in the minors....... Almora doesn't seem to me to be a guy we'd get much for. May be more valuable to us to just hold on to, but he's obviously a possibility..... Happ seems to me to be a better than 50/50 bet to get moved....... Caratini seems like the perfect piece to move one of both of Kintzler or Duensing with. Maples seems like a guy we could easily attach as well. No one's safe though, in the minors. Not if we truly want Bryce. They're just collateral to help us make Bryce fit into the budget........