davell

Thanks for posting this. I've never considered BCB a "must read" so I've only been there on occasion. But there are 3 parts to this interview, with them running Tuesday and Wednesday. With Wednesday having the new CBA addressed some in it, which will be cool.

The Colts owner came out a few days ago and said that if Peyton is healthy, that he'll be back with the Colts (although they are still very likely to also draft a QB). Yeah, I saw that. I figure it's just a last gasp effort to make people think that. Archie's already said he didn't like the idea of Peyton and Luck on the same team basically. And with Peyton's health concernes, his 28 mill roster bonus at the beginning of March is going to be a ridiculous check for them to stroke. This is going to be a game of chicken, because Peyton's not going to restructure unless he's guaranteed they won't be drafting his successor. The Colts aren't going to go for that and will be trying their damndest to trade him. But no team is trading for him and then have to stroke that 28 mill check either. So, in the end, he's going to get cut.

As far as Dempster goes, I don't really see a trade market out there for him right now. Oswalt and Kuroda are FA, will cost less than what we owe Dempster and wouldn't cost prospects. Not to mention, he may not waive his 10/5 rights anyway. Let the rebuild get started, hope he's having a solid first couple of months and trade him at the deadline, when it's apparent to him we're not going to keep him around anyway. Depending on the trade market, he could be one of the best guys out there.

And over half of that would be Z and Soriano, who'd be long gone.

Andrew Luck isn't the answer for Miami. Peyton Manning is. They've got a team that's ready to win now. The Colts will have to cut Peyton and my guess is Miami is where he's headed.

Hell, if we deal Marmol, I guess our closer is going to be one of Shark, Cashner, Dolis, or Carpenter. I did see the Sun Times mention we had inquired on Brad Lidge at some point this offseason. I guess Kerry Wood could still close as well. Of course, with a total rebuild, we're not going to need a closer very much anyway.

I think Chris Carpenter, John Gaub, and Jeff Beliveau all have much better shots than Castillo does.

I think the Manny Corpas signing almost definitely means Lendy Castillo isn't making the team. Besides him, the guys I don't care if they have a 40 man spot or not are Weathers, Coleman, Dewitt, Bianchi, and maybe Reed Johnson. That said, if we do wind up with a video game rebuild scenario, having a seemingly good guy like Reed isn't a bad thing, in that case. There has to be some vets on the team that can show the kids work ethic and stuff like that, I guess. Hell, I think I read he turned down a coaching position this year to play again. If we're going for it, I think it's an awful signing, but if he's kind of there to teach and mentor, I'm OK with it, as long as he's not taking at bats away from someone who needs them.

Has anyone heard of a provision that makes any money being sent over in a deal has to be sent completely within 18 months? I'm asking this here, because it coincides with a total selloff, especially when talking about dealing Soriano. With what we owe on him, if we trade him and leave a team 3/12 on his contract(eating 42 mill), it means 21 mill each of the next 2, not 3 seasons. If we got rid of Z as well, I could see our major league payroll dropping into the 85-90 mill range for this season. Garza, Marmol, Byrd, and Soto have value, while Z and Soriano will just be off the books basically. There's nothing left on the market that even makes sense to buy on, if this IS the direction, other than Cespedes possibly, and Soler for sure. Maybe Wei Yen Chen.

The league offices are closed though, aren't they? Why the supposed rush to get this done? And if it IS true, as secretive as everything inside the organization is, we probably won't know anything until after the New Year.

Also, we're at 38 on the 40 man right now. Not counting Reed Johnson and Kerry Wood. So, in trading Garza, we'll probably target talent that's not on other team's 40 man rosters for the most part. Same thing goes in trading anyone else as well. Maybe a swap of guys ON the 40 man, but we'd probably want to add some depth geared more towards the lower levels of our minors, outside of the swap of spots.

By the way, I don't think the Red Sox can even put together a package capable of getting Garza. Bogaerts is supposedly untouchable and we're probably looking for a pitching heavy package to begin with. And the Red Sox don't have a single elite pitching prospect and very few decent ones even. If Garza gets dealt, I think it's almost definitely going to be to one of the following teams: Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, Royals, Mariners(if they get Prince, they could "go for it") or Rockies.

Perfect world X would be Porcello. More likely, it'd be Drew Smyly, Andy Oliver, or Casey Crosby. Castellanos and Turner was what Oakland wanted for Gio and the Tigers wouldn't do it for him, so I think it's definitely off the table for Garza as well.

Garza has already proven himself in the AL East and I honestly think that's going to matter here. Plus, he's the last bigtime pitcher available. Kuroda, Jackson, and Oswalt are the competition for us, as any team interested in Garza can go out and sign one of them. But, Garza's the best pitcher of the bunch and has no red flags whatsoever, which isn't the same for them. I figure we'll talk to the Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Tigers, Mariners(if they sign Fielder), Marlins, and Rockies. He doesn't make sense for the Orioles to me, even if they do sign Fielder.

I think Toronto is actually going to sign Fielder. And I think they need Garza more than New York or Boston does, because they can go out and buy guys easier. Not to mention, they're playing catchup to those 2 teams. And, even by giving up a package like that, they've still got Gose as far as a future CFer. And dealing away Nicolino and Syndergaard hurts some, but they still have McGuire, Hutchison, Cardona, Sanchez, wojociechowski, and Drabek as young arms to go through. I think Garza being the last elite pitcher on the market helps net us an excellent return. And taking guys lower down the system should help us add extra talent as well.

That's an easy one. Pads send Rizzo to us, receive Marisnick from Toronto. Toronto receives Garza and Rhee from us, sending us Alvarez, Syndergaard, and Nicolino.

I think it's at least possible to sell this to the general meatball fan, but I admit you'd probably have to reduce ticket prices some. That can be offset though, by having a lower payroll than we've carried recently. Plus, this coincides well with when the current TV deal runs out. Granted, I guess all of baseball would figure out this is what the plan is, but it'd suck to have to say it, in order for the general masses to understand. I guess the key would be watching the development of Castro, Brett, and whoever else is on the big league club. This is where the marketing genius of Crane Kenney would have to truly take effect. He'd have to find ways to keep fans coming out.

I don't think it's going to take that long honestly. I really think we'll see a spending spree on IFA over the next few months that's never been seen before. Not Cespedes either. But Soler, Concepcion, and as many Latin American guys that fell through from last year. Probably some Pac Rim guys as well. And if by next year, some young cheap guys hit the trade market, I could see us adding them, even if we're not contending. Suck in 2012? Yeah. Suck in 2013? Probably. Suck in 2014? Nah, solid with true excitement again. 2015? Dynasty begins...........

I think we're about to see a video game rebuild job, for the first time in baseball history. I don't see us signing anyone to more than a two year deal, unless they're 25 or under. Everyone we're signing to these 1 or 2 year deals are stopgaps and if they play decently, they'll get dealt. Garza, Byrd, Marmol, and Soto will all be dealt by June, at the latest. Zambrano and Dempster could be gone by the deadline. Soriano will be dumped for nothing. We'll give guys like LaHair, Sappelt, Wood, and Castillo shots. If they show something, they'll be traded as well. Guys like Carpenter, Cashner, Dolis, and Shark will all be given plenty of time to develop at the major league level. And find their longterm role on our team. Guys like Brett won't be rushed, but once he does get here, he'll be given a really long leash. And while this is going on, we'll be developing our prospects and with all the trading off of assets, we'll have a top 5 system by this time next year, maybe even better than that. Because I think we're about to go on a crazy spending spree on IFA between now and July. And I also think we'll find a way to spend more on the draft as well. And it's not to go develop and wait for all these guys to hit the majors. It's so we can make the trades for a Gio or a Cahill or whoever else and it not hurt the system. And spend bigtime on the very few holes we'll see on the horizon. Yeah, we'll suck in 2012 and maybe 2013 as well, but Theo's going to sign value guys and it won't be ridiculously awful. And once we're up and going, I think it's going to be a machine. I wanted us to stay competitive and all, but I'll take the tear it down completely approach, because I think we've got the best FO in baseball to do it.

By the way, Toronto makes more sense for us in my scenario as well, because our 40 man stands at 39 right now, once Corpas and Johnson are added. Not even counting Kerry Wood.

Here's my thinking on this: I would prefer a package from Toronto, because of volume. If we could get a package of Marisnick, 2 of Syndergaard, Nicolino, and Hutchison, and one of Sanchez or Knecht, I'd prefer that to a package of Montero and one of Banuelos or Betances. If the Yanks offered both pitchers and Sanchez, I'd jump all over that though. I don't really have an interest in Drabek, Snider, or Rasmus, to be honest. And I don't have an interest in anything the Red Sox could offer.

Off the 40 man is where the Jays shine, in my opinion. Anthony Gose is tools galore. K's galore as well, witout plate discipline either. Bigtime power, with defensive back speed. Love him or hate him type. Jake marisnick is also a CF. Large athletic, played A ball and showed power and speed with a decent approach. Both of these guys are top 50. Noah Syndergaard is a big righty with excellent stuff. K/9 should be great. Mid 90's heat, excellent movement, changeup is averagish now, if it develops he has ace potential. Justin Nicolino, also played A ball last year is a slender lefty, awesome control, offspeed stuff is his ticket, has low 90's FB. Has 2ish potential. Drew Hutchison has workhorse written all over him, pitched at 3 levels last year. Solid mix of pitches, also has 2, probably 3 potential. Deck McGuire is a 3/4 guy, solid repertoire with very slim chance of burning out. He is what he is. Should have long major league career. Aaron Sanchez is another really young arm for them with breakout potential. Tons of movement, needs to get a handle on it. CB is his best pitch. Marcus Knecht is a toolsy corner OFer, typical big arm, hole in his swing, big power, decent speed. Syndergaard and Nicolino may or may not make top 100 lists this year. Both are candidates to be top 20 guys next year though, if they repeat in A+ ball what they did in A. Hutchison is probably a back end top 100 guy with potential to move much higher as well. McGuire probably will miss lists, but is close. Sanchez and Knecht are not going to be seen this year, but Sanchez certainly has top 50ish potential.

Toronto needs separate posts. First, their 40 man roster guys...... travis Snider and Kyle Drabek are both well known names and have lost some to most of their luster. Both could be had in a deal for Garza. Henderson Alvarez is a GB pitcher, throws low 90's from the right side and has 4/5 written all over him. Early success in majors and is very young. 21, I think. JP Arencibia is an all or nothing type C. Humongous power, will never hit for average and is below average behind the plate. Could be the Rob Deer of our generation. Brett Lawrie is untouchable. Superstar 3B in the making. Travis D'Arnoud is also untouchable, but makes Arencibia available, since he's a C. Should be a superstar as well. Colby Rasmus, everyone knows about him as well and he could be a part of a Garza deal too. Lawrie and D'Arnoud have both been top 10ish type prospects. Arencibia was top 100 at one point. As were Snider, Rasmus, and Drabek. In fact all 3 were top 50 easily. Alvarez never was and moved very quickly. Getting a back end cheap guy like Wood may keep Alvarez off our radar now anyway.

Yankees match up very well with us, but seem to be hesitant to trade away thei cheap, young guys now. On their 40 man, I'd say there's a decent possibility Hughes could be part of a Garza deal myself. Jesus Montero is a C, that probably BEGINS his major league career as a DH. May play some 1B. Flat out rakes though. If he OPS's .900 as a rookie, it won't totally surprise me. Austin Romine is another C. Does everything fairly well, nothing great. Is definitely a starting major league C though. Dellin Betances is a huge RHP. Mid 90's effortless FB. His curve and change are very solid as well. I've seen young Josh Beckett comps. Off their 40 man, is Manny Banuelos, a smallish LHP, with a mid 90's FB as well. Excellent CB. Gary Sanchez is another C. Bigtime power, solid skills behind the plate, played A ball last year at 18. Mason Williams is a 5 tool OFer who hasn't played full season ball yet. Betances and Banuelos are both top 100 guys. Some lists may have Betances higher than others, Banuelos is probably top 40ish. Betances anywhere from 50 to 80ish, command issues being the reasoning for the lower rankings. Sanchez is probably top 50ish himself. Montero is top 10ish. Romine may not make it this year, but has in the past and is capable of starting immediately. Williams will probably be a huge riser next year, if he succeeds in A ball.

Oh yeah, Lavarnway is a possible top 100 guy. Middlebrooks is somewhere in the 50 to 75 range. Kalish is a former top 50ish guy, lost his eligibility. Reddick made the list at one point as well. Bogaerts is probably top 30ish. Cecchini, Coyle, and Jacobs would probably all get some consideration this year.