davell

What are your thoughts on Drew Hutchinson? His 2011 numbers (like all Blue Jays prospects) are fantastic, but his stuff doesn't seem as highly rated as Syndergaard's. My first thought looking at it is I would prefer Syndergaard of their right handed pitching prospects, but I might have Hutchinson over McGuire. I think I'd take Hutchison over McGuire as well, but I don't think we could get all 3 of him, Syndergaard, and Nicolino. In fact, we very likely won't get but one of them. Considering how poorly our minors look, as far as LHP goes, I think Nicolino is the best bet. If I were Toronto, I'd certainly think Syndergaard and Nicolino could both come back to really make me regret dealing them. Syndergaard slightly more than Nicolino even. The original package Levine floated was McGuire/Marisnick/Nicolino. Which I still think would be excellent. I think Hutchison has 2 potential, innings eater body too, so I'd like him more than McGuire. But, there's nothing wrong with getting a guy who's almost a sure thing to be a 3, which McGuire is. My perfect package would be Marisnick/Syndergaard/Nicolino, but I really think that's asking too much from them. Not to mention, I also think Theo probably wants to add something a little closer to the majors. Which would be McGuire or even Drabek. Davell, how would this package compare to the one we gave up for Garza? Thanks. I think I'd look at it like this: Guyer is a potential 4th OFer. Chirinos is a future backup C and Fuld is a 25th man, who probably had his career year last season. So, to me, all we gave up was Lee and Archer. Archer was ranked upper 30's. Lower 40's rankings wise. Lee was borderline top 100. Archer has TOR stuff, with command issues and is possibly a back end of the pen guy, if those issues don't get worked out. Lee is a potential top of the order hitting, very fast, solid OBP with 10ish homer pop, gold glove potential SS. To me, he was the prize, as there are a lot more Archer's around than Lee's. Levine's rumored package of McGuire/Marisnick/Nicolino? McGuire is close to ready and is not going to be a star, but a solid 3. Probably a workhorse type. Marisnick is very athletic, very large, solid plate approach, potential .300ish hitter who goes 20/20. A couple of years away though, since he played A ball this past one. Nicolino is wire thin, tons of projection, great offspeed stuff and excellent control. Will probably start season in A or A+ ball. Also couple of years away. My guess is by rankings, McGuire is somewhere around 90ish, Marisnick is top 50 and Nicolino may or may not show up in the 75 to 100 range, but likely to be top 50 and possibly much higher than that by this time next year. I like a package like that quite a bit more than what we gave up for him.

Yeah, I would. I don't think anyone else is going to match that. McGuire is probably ready midseason to be a longterm 3. Syndergaard and Nicolino have ace potential, although a long way away. Hutchison has 2 potential. And Alvarez is 21 with success in the bigs already. Law ranked him 39th in his midseason prospect report last year. Kind of came out of nowhere. If his K rate goes up some, he may have TOR potential as well. But, he's a groundball guy and he throws low 90's, touching 95 on occasion, so maybe he just isn't trying to K guys.

I wonder that too. My guess says it's up to San Diego, with Rizzo involved.

Raul Alcantara, a solid upside righty, and Miles Head, a decent hitting 1B are the other 2 guys heading to Oakland. Boston also gets Sweeney. I think Alcantara may have age issues? May be mistaking him for someone else. Either way, this looks like a good deal for the Red Sox. Too many closers out there. Price tag had to drop for anyone wanting to deal away one. I hope we keep Marmol and see what the landscape looks like in July. Because I think Bailey has more value than Marmol and I wouldn't have been happy with that package for Marmol even. Hell, not even close honestly.

Boom or bust obviously. I think the K rate is really worrisome, but I'm a hypocrite because I don't think the same about Brett. Maybe it's the plate discipline. The speed/power combo is intriguing for sure, but if I'm the Cubs and they're willing to deal a guy like that, it'd make me wonder what they know that I don't. For that reason alone, I'd take Marisnick.

What are your thoughts on Drew Hutchinson? His 2011 numbers (like all Blue Jays prospects) are fantastic, but his stuff doesn't seem as highly rated as Syndergaard's. My first thought looking at it is I would prefer Syndergaard of their right handed pitching prospects, but I might have Hutchinson over McGuire. I think I'd take Hutchison over McGuire as well, but I don't think we could get all 3 of him, Syndergaard, and Nicolino. In fact, we very likely won't get but one of them. Considering how poorly our minors look, as far as LHP goes, I think Nicolino is the best bet. If I were Toronto, I'd certainly think Syndergaard and Nicolino could both come back to really make me regret dealing them. Syndergaard slightly more than Nicolino even. The original package Levine floated was McGuire/Marisnick/Nicolino. Which I still think would be excellent. I think Hutchison has 2 potential, innings eater body too, so I'd like him more than McGuire. But, there's nothing wrong with getting a guy who's almost a sure thing to be a 3, which McGuire is. My perfect package would be Marisnick/Syndergaard/Nicolino, but I really think that's asking too much from them. Not to mention, I also think Theo probably wants to add something a little closer to the majors. Which would be McGuire or even Drabek.

We will never know what went on with Hendry and Ricketts when he first bought the team. To me, if Hendry had went up to Ricketts and said that the way they had approached things were wrong and he thought they'd be better off starting over from scratch, it probably would have been his only chance at saving his job. Why I don't think he ever woulld have started over was he wasn't very good at selling off. Other than getting a good haul for DeRosa. He also had one of the smallest front offices in baseball and Ricketts had to appoint a guy to be their statistical analysis guy. It also appeared as if Hendry had told Ricketts they should spend more money in the draft, not because it was a necessary thing to do always, but because this was going to be the last time they could. In the end, I just don't think Hendry would have ever tried a completely different approach than what he was already doing.

The big difference is obviously body type. If they are the same age, Cespedes is definitely going to age much, much better. From what I've heard, if he's not ready for the majors immediately, he'd need half a season of AAA to get acclimated. That said, if it's one or the other for us, I want Soler.

Hendry's offseason would have been this: Sign Pujols for 10/275. Extend Aramis 3/39. Give Dempster 2 more years at 12 per. Trade everything in our system for Gio. Add a couple of high risk relievers. Unload Z for nothing and pay 75% of his deal. Contender in 2012? Yeah, probably. Definite division winner? Nah, but possible. How's the team outlook a few years from now? Same situation we're in now. If I look top to bottom of every organization in baseball from major leaguers to what's in their systems, I'm honestly not sure how many teams I'd put underneath the Cubs at this exact moment. Maybe the Twins, White Sox, Houston, and Mets? There may be others close, but as far as talent top to bottom, I think this is about where we're at. So if Theo wants to blow it up and get as many potential assets as he can, I don't really see any reason to question him.

Kipnis is excellent, but they have no reason to trade him. Chisenhall has lost some luster. LaPorta has lost damn near all of his, Jason Knapp had shoulder surgery last year and will probably miss half of 2012 at least. Scott Barnes is a slightly better version of Chris Rusin. A back end lefty starter is his upside. In other words, I wouldn't deal Garza to them. We need pitching prospects and they don't have them. Hell, and other than Kipnis, I don't like any of their hitting either.

I feel like I'm at an Occupy rally. There are a dozen teams that had a higher profit than the Cubs, including the Dodgers, Pirates, and Padres. If you had 700 mil to invest where would you put it? They would have made more than 23 mil if they invested it in T-Bills. I didn't know the Cubs were a charity. The Cubs aren't a charity whatsoever, but when the owners have came out and said that the profits would be put directly back into the team, people tend to take them at their word. Personally, I thought it was a mistake for Ricketts to say that.

I think the key here to Theo is the state of the farm system. And I do think that, even though he'd never say it, having high draft picks in back to back drafts is very appealing to him. We've currently got the 6th, 43rd, 58th, and 65th picks this year, assuming we don't resign Pena. Another year of a top 5ish pick and a second rounder around 40 or so, coupled with a ton of IFA before the new CBA takes effect could easily give us a system that's consensus top 5, especially since the strength of ours currently is high upside guys in the lower levels. It'd give us tons of flexibility moving forward. Whether we'd be using guys as trade bait or them filling in holes we have and allowing the big FA signings.

Yeah, those guy are a ways a way, but all 3 have top 10 prospect potential. With them being as loaed as they are, the hope is they'd be more ready to go for it now, in this case. Marisnick is probably top 50ish right now, but I don't know that either of the other 2 will be top 100 at this exact moment. If they are, it'd be pretty low. Levine hinted at a McGuire/Marisnick/Nicolino package last week and unless Montero and one of the Yankee guys are packaged together, I really think Toronto matches up best with us. But, I'd love Syndergaard instead of McGuire, even if it close to certain McGuire is a 3 as soon as 2013.

All 3 of Chen, Cespedes, and Soler will sign major league contracts though. I don't see any scenario where Cespedes costs more than 8 to 10 mill for the 2012 budget and it'd probably be less actually. At worst, signing all 3 puts our major league payroll at 115ish. 15 mill tops for draft/IFA after July and it leaves 20 mill to go. 7 or 8 could go towards more IFA that aren't getting major league deals. Even then, you'd still have lots to play with. Which works out well if we operate on a 5 year budget plan or something similar.

I'm basing this question on NOT signing Fielder and trading Garza......Where are we going to spend money? Maybe getting Soler and Chen? That'd put our payroll around 105, with probably a 12 mill budget for the draft and IFA after the new CBA. Our baseball budget is evidently around 150 for the major league payroll and draft/IFA. This would leave us 33 mill short. Going on a spending spree on IFA between now and July seems likely, but I'd be shocked if we found a way to spend more than 7 or 8 mill and it may be hard to even do that. So, it leaves us 25 mill leftover. It doesn't make a lot of sense to spend on non impact major league guys, if we're not planning on truly fielding a team capable of contending abd Fielder is the last shot at that and it's certainly arguable we'd need plenty more to go along with him. Only thing I can think of is overspending bigtime on the draft or IFA after July. But, if we suck, losing a probable top 5 pick in 2013 isn't smart either. And IFA alone just doesn't seem likely, plus it could piss off other teams anyway. Maybe there's just nothing left for us to spend on?

The more I've thought about it, here's what I see happening with our "assets". I do think Garza gets dealt and it's either a 3 team deal with SD or we make a separate deal with them for Rizzo. I think we'll find a way to unload Soriano on someone and eat a ton of cash. But, I think that's it for the offseason, as far as selling off goes. There's too many options out there to deal Marmol right now and get value. There's no teams currently in need of a C, so Soto stays put for now. No market for Z or Dempster either, because of the money involved. Even Byrd probably is better off sticking around for now. But, as soon as some injuries pop up or needs to become apparent, I think all of these guys get dealt by the deadline. But, it just doesn't make sense currently, as there just isn't a market for them right now.

If Castellanos or Porcello could be had with Turner, I'm not sure there's a realistic package elsewhere I'd take over it. But, the A's were turned down when they offered Gio for Turner/Castellanos. Not sure who else may have been in the package though. If the packages are Turner/Smyly/Oliver vs Nicolino/Syndergaard/Marisnick it's awfully close for me and I think I'd take Toronto.

Toronto has guys with 1/2 ability, they're just further away from the majors. If I'm taking one guy, I'd take Turner for sure. But, if I can get 2 of Syndergaard, Nicolino, or Sanchez, I'd take Toronto's deal. Especially since the other pieces Detroit has, don't match up with what Toronto does.

We need pitching. KC has some solid pitching prospects, but supposedly Montgomery is off limits and Detroit, Toronto, and the Yanks have better pitching prospects anyway. You want a bigtime power hitter in the OF? Jorge Soler says hello and we don't have to trade Garza to get him.

If Tampa is using Molina as a starter, there's a decent shot they're still looking at options. My guess is we could get Wade Davis for Soto. But, would it be possible to get Niemann instead?

Non guaranteed, split contract. Corpas got the same, by the way. So I guess neither are automatically put on the 40 man, but both get some sort of extra money than a typical NRI.

Watch out for the Jets to go after him pretty hard. I've thought about that too. I think it boils down to whether Peyton wants to be in the same city as Eli or not. Marketing advantage possibly? But the other part of me thinks that Rex Ryan is probably the last coach on earth Manning would want to play for. Meanwhile, the Fins will have the ability to hire a coach Peyton approves of. I bet it's already entered their minds about this too. And what better way to reenergize a fanbase than to bring Peyton Manning and Bill Cowher in? I could see Kansas City as another team that'd be attractive for Manning possibly. I can't see him going somewhere that's not ready to win. My darkhorse landing spot for him is Baltimore, if Flacco falters in the playoffs.

Only if it's clear they won't take Z.

Brett said today that he's given the Cubs permission to look at a trade involving him. My guess is our only hope of getting something solid for him would be to pay the majority of his salary and hope the Yanks or Sox see value in not having the luxury tax implications really hitting hard. Maybe eat 10 mill and see if the Yanks would part with Romine?

Yellon says in the comments section that he doesn't ask any hard hitting questions, because it's likely it would be the last time he'd be granted an interview.