davell

Nice to see Paredes getting some love. Personally, I think I've got Alzolay 1st at this stage.....

[tweet] [/tweet] There's dumb.....Then, there's this.

I know i don't know the exacts of how to calculate this, not sure if any of us do.....But, KB has Boras, a ROY award, an MVP award, and a ring(which doesn't matter, but still). I'm guessing 12, because I'll be shocked if he's not the highest paid 1st year arb guy in history.

Yep.

The average Giancarlo Stanton season (injuries included!): 477 PAs/ .267/ .357/ .543 / 30 HRs / 3.8 rWAR In 2012-2013 when he missed large chunks of the season he took 1005 PAs with a wOBA over .400. During his injured shortened 2015 (318 PAs) he put up a .394 wOBA. This all in a pitcher's park during a dramatically run supressed half decade so of baseball. He's one of the handful best hitters in baseball when on the field in any season but 2016, and is back to crushing it again. When you can hit like that it's not hard to imagine being able to beat that $29.5 million average salary in coming years unless FA prices fall across the board in the future for reasons. I know how good he is. I love him as a player. He's injury prone, he's going to be older, and he's not opting out of that, because no team out there is going to give him that, in his decline years. Just not happening.

Expecting a team to give Stanton, a guy who's literally played more than 123 games TWICE in 6 full seasons, a contract more than 7/208, for his 31-37 year old seasons is also one of the worst ideas in the history of the board. You can't remotely expect him to opt out of that.

I'm setting KB at 12, Addy and Hendricks at 5 each. We'll see what happens, but I think I'm actually slightly UNDER selling what those 3 get.

I think it can add up fairly quickly. Let's say you buy a guy in FA, instead of adding Teheran.....That's probably an extra 5-10 mill in payroll. Darvish being the biggest target, that would cost more..... You're going to need 3-4 bullpen arms, that's going to add up. Maybe 25-30 mill? More, if you keep Davis or trade for Britton..... And you've at least got to look at a possibility of adding a CF. Quintana + Teheran + Darvish at 30M + 25-30M towards the bullpen is basically the same payroll as this year's team. Maybe you can't get a Jay replacement, but those bullpen estimates are probably high(Montgomery is in the pen in this scenario) and you've got several CF lying around(Happ, Almora, Heyward, maybe Burks) without dropping Jay-money on one. Is that the path I think they'll go? No, but it's not all that elaborate a contortion either. Trading for Teheran wouldn't close any doors, unless there's a similar valued pitcher you like better that you can't trade for with a more depleted system. I think there's a better chance of a NEED in CF. I can see us trading one of Javy/Schwarber/Russell/Happ+ in the off season for Archer/Stroman/Whoever..... Maybe adding Cain thru FA, in a scenario, like that.... Where are you getting Q+Teheran+Darvish is 30 mill? Are you subtracting Lackey/Arrieta from that or something? I think the pen comes in at that range fairly easily personally....Again, Davis or Britton comes in at 15 on their own. And decent guys cost 5-7 mill apiece, to accentuate that with.... From quick math that may be a tad off, we're losing Jake, Lackey, Montero, Uehara, Davis, Anderson, Jay, Duensing, and Rondon probably gets non tendered.....That saves 80 mill from where we're at. Seal Boy and Grimm probably costs 3 mill next year combined, I figure they'll stick. KB, Russell, and Hendricks? I'll say they cost 22 mill next year.....Gives us 55 mill total to spend, in order to hit the current payroll..... Obviously, back loading, whatever tricks can apply to pare payroll a bit.... But, if the 25-30 mill figure spent on the pen is correct, (we've just got Carl, Strop, Grimm, loser of Butler/Monty) then menial additions of a backup C, veteran OFer of some sort, 6th starter, that seem like things that'll get added.... It'd basically just give us Darvish money, unless we're really shaking up the roster, by trading one of the position guys, which puts things in an entirely different light obviously, with multitudes of scenarios..... And yes, the payroll CAN go up. But, I don't really expect it to, because they'll want to save up some for Bryce or one of that group and the payroll skyrockets then.....And the FO will have to begin thinking about creativity with the LT, in the next year or two....

They didn't give Montgomery, Butler, Kelly, etc a rotation spot this spring, and if they kick Montgomery out of the rotation for Hendricks, then their best bet from the internal options won't be likely to go a full SP's workload. Quintana and Teheran combined cost about as much as Lackey+Anderson, so it's not a matter of finances that would hold them back either. That said, if you have Lester/Q/Hendricks/Teheran, another SP isn't a huge need, but there isn't a whole lot else to spend on either. I think it can add up fairly quickly. Let's say you buy a guy in FA, instead of adding Teheran.....That's probably an extra 5-10 mill in payroll. Darvish being the biggest target, that would cost more..... You're going to need 3-4 bullpen arms, that's going to add up. Maybe 25-30 mill? More, if you keep Davis or trade for Britton..... And you've at least got to look at a possibility of adding a CF.

If I had to put out a prediction on him, I'd veer towards up and down guy. His stuff just isn't special in any way. But, if his FB command improves enough, I'd turn my guess into he's a guy that sticks in MLB long enough to at least hit his arb years and make some money.

Realistically, we have room to add one MAJOR starting pitcher between now and Opening Day next year. We've got Lester, Quintana, and Hendricks written in ink. One of Monty, Butler, or any other "upside" play, ala Gausman, or those types, will be our 5th, with others providing depth..... So, with our ONE chance at a big acquisition......I'll be sorely disappointed, if it winds up being Julio flipping Teheran. We can, and WILL, do much better.

As someone with plenty of experience in marketing and sales, I'd LOVE to hear how supposedly TRYING, but not GETTING players is successful marketing.

Tseng finishes 7 3 0 0 1 8.....89 pitches, 6/4 GB/FB

I really want to see him get a few starts in Tennessee. Its pretty horsefeathering awesome to see an 11th rounder last year do this in High A, a year after being drafted.

CeeeeeeeeeeTeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!! I've not heard of any changes to his repertoire. Averagish stuff across the board, but with above average command. He's still just 22, so he's just getting smarter, is about all I've got. He's putting himself onto the 40 man after the season. Should be our 7th, 8th, 9th starter next year.....

Rucker is at 8 2 0 0 0 10, on 92 pitches.

Rucker is at 6 1 0 0 0 6, on 63 pitches so far.

I'm not even sure he'll be cheap. Angelos is a miserly weird, old guy and Jones is one of his favorite players ever. It won't surprise me if he wants a serious return for him.

Paying Giancarlo Stanton 10/288 over his 28-37 year old seasons is among the worst ideas this board has ever had. NM, guess it got edited out of a post quickly.

If we go after Britton, I really want us to grab Gausman with him.

Q's start was worth 0.6 fWAR. He's up to 6th on the team and one more start like that puts him 3rd lol.

That's a pretty underwhelming return.

Wow. Pretty cool horsefeathers.