davell
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Everything posted by davell
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You can grab Yu at 25 AAV, if you do nothing else that affects next years LT and be sitting in the 180 range, plus pre arbs and insurance. Or basically, around 205. Which is the LT next year. Whether you do it or not, you're looking at the Dodgers sitting around 100 mill, needing to keep Kershaw, but with tons of money after that. I don't know that they'd go 250+ on 2 guys in the same off season, but after looking at how good of shape they're in, its hard not to see it as a very real possibility. So, horsefeathers it. Get Yu if you can.
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It'd be really hard to continue watching, if that happened.
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Me too. But, the Dodgers have to worry about keeping Kershaw too. Not sure if even they would give out 2 separate 250+ mill deals in the same off season.
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Seriously, this.
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To go further, even if the Giants get Bruce, they still need another OF and at least 1 starting pitcher, plus pen help. Like I said, I'd guess they'd try and move Pence first. But Shark seems like he'd be the next option, if they couldn't find a taker for Pence. Maybe Montgomery, Maples, and one of Tseng, Mills, or Butler actually looks decent to them....If not, I'd guess Monty and Alzolay would.
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They're in a tough spot. Especially with their relatively recent past. They probably don't want to blow it up, give those guys time to straighten it out or whatever. Don't get me wrong, it IS stupid, in some ways. But, fans go out there consistently and will again this year. So, at least they're making money. Trade off Posey and/or MadBum and who knows if that's the case? At any rate, they're up against the LT. Looks like they're around 168 or so, right now, not counting pre arbs or insurance. Or Jay Bruce or whoever they're trying to add. They're trying to stay under the LT too.....They've probably got to move another contract, to be honest. But since the initial thoughts on this Matt Moore deal were it could be him or Hunter Pence, I'd say Pence is next on their dump list.
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My guess is Martinez or like Cain and Hosmer (move Belt to the OF) It was Nightengale, but he mentioned Jay Bruce.
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Can't do nothing but lol at this horsefeathers.
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Its more Chatwood than Smyly, for me. Again, they COULD make it work, but the Chatwood move seems odd to me, if Darvish is the other addition. I do think Corbin would have been a better tag team partner, in this scenario. Of course, Corbin is still in Arizona currently too. I can appreciate the desire for maximum flexibility, but they're going to try to win the world series next year. I don't know how better to say it than they aren't going to tie their hands behind their back this year for theoretical flexibility next year. There's probably a point in a hypothetical Darvish contract where they cross a threshold where they have to consider next year more strongly, but Darvish is the highest dollar option and only a proxy for 'multi-year SP' for the point of this argument. I can buy this. In the end, I doubt any of this matters. I don't see the Cubs getting Darvish anyway.
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I think it'll go over 40 personally. But, its not just Smyly and his 5, its Chatwood and his 12.7 too. To me, it'd seem more realistic to have found a Corbin or something like that, on a smaller trade, to fill that 5th spot and save the added money for next year. Smyly's contract is no greater than that of a glorified Duensing. They aren't going to tie their hand behind their back for this year's rotation just because he might look like a rotation candidate next year in his first full season back from TJS. I'm not saying that means Darvish, but there's no reason to shy away from a multi-year solution. Any of the starters could fall on their face or have their arms explode, or most likely, Smyly doesn't look like a guy worth guaranteeing anything but relief innings to. As far as Harper goes, I'm thinking the bite of the luxury tax plus a plethora of top of market options keep him from going that high. I could be wrong though. Its more Chatwood than Smyly, for me. Again, they COULD make it work, but the Chatwood move seems odd to me, if Darvish is the other addition. I do think Corbin would have been a better tag team partner, in this scenario. Of course, Corbin is still in Arizona currently too.
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You aren't going to limit yourself to injury rehabs and rentals for this last rotation spot simply because you guaranteed Smyly 5 million next year. You probably couldn't offer Harper a 40 million AAV, but I'm skeptical his market goes that high, and even that isn't so difficult with a move of any consequence. I think it'll go over 40 personally. But, its not just Smyly and his 5, its Chatwood and his 12.7 too. To me, it'd seem more realistic to have found a Corbin or something like that, on a smaller trade, to fill that 5th spot and save the added money for next year.
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I'd be shocked. If we did this, it'd be hard to explain Chatwood and Smyly on the books next year. The LT isn't an issue this year. But, staying under 245 next year, if you've got Darvish and Harper certainly could be.
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Doubt Boras allows that to happen. Boras isn't going to refuse out of spite, and ultimately it's not his decision. It'll just be expensive. That's true. I just doubt KB would actually have an interest in doing it himself. Obviously, its based on nothing though.
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I haven't thought about this very hard, but my initial reaction is you do what it takes to buy out a year or two of Bryant's free agency as a first step. Doubt Boras allows that to happen.
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Theo won't blink an eye on 40 per on Harper, nor should he. The opt outs involved will allow for him to get even more cash too. Theo ain't even truly trying to hide this either. The key is keeping from hitting 245 mill next year and we'll be able to do that. If we miss on him though, who DO we spend on? And I'm not thinking Machado is the actual answer..... Kikuchi? Kershaw? Blackmon or Pollock? One of the closers like Britton, Kimbrel, or Miller? Obviously, in some of those casee you can grab multiples for the same money it'd count on the LT for Bryce. Still, I think we're getting Harper anyway.
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I mean, this is the same org that doesn't bid on posted players, because they don't agree with the process and also the org that doesn't like selling off at mid season, because that's not the team fans bought tickets to see.... They waited a year too long to deal off Machado anyway. But, it doesn't really matter. They're not going to go full rebuild. They'll sit in 70-80 win territory for as long as Angelos owns them.
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So what now? Is it as easy as just signing a starting pitcher and maybe grab another bullpen arm cheaply in January? I'm not necessarily thinking that's what we do..... As an FYI, we've got somewhere in the neighborhood of 37-40 mill available to spend, under the LT.(that's after insurances and pre arbs) Trade Happ for Salazar and maybe get some nominal secondary piece Sign Reed 3/30 Grab Wisler from the Braves, as our Eddie Butler 2.0 deal. Sign Xavier Cedeno to a 1.25 mill deal. Sign Geovany Soto as an NRI Still leaves 20 mill or so for in season moves. My only concern is it'd put us around 205 for 2019, after projected arb raises and the insurances, etc. The LT is also 205 next year, as an FYI. Still, I think we'll sign either a starter or reliever and trade for the opposite, before hitting Spring Training.
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Its Gordo, but he says in his latest article that Cobb's asking price is "about 20 mill per" and that he's heard the Cubs have cooled on him.
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Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek for 2/$13M
davell replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Let's say Chili Davis pixie dust magically turns Heyward into a .290/.390/.500 guy next year (lmao) with still beyond elite defense in RF resulting in like a 7 win season (that's a pulled out of my ass guess at what that would be) Do you hope for opt out or no opt out? (I hope for opt out still) Yeah, I'd still want him to opt out. You could have Bryce and the rest of your OF is cheap, with Almora, Happ, and Schwarber. Could use the Heyward money on pitching, at that point. -
Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek for 2/$13M
davell replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Cishek is really solid and gives the pen a different look. He's a great compliment to Morrow. The pen looks pretty damn solid. My guess is they'll still add a guy like Duke or Logan, if they're cheap. Maybe Cedeno. I wouldn't mind a guy like Jared Hughes at all, at this point either. But figure they'll grab a lefty of some sort. -
Could he have been referring to Smyly? Surely not, right? Especially since they said if he gives you anything in 2018, its gravy. I know I'd be disappointed, if our entire bullpen off season, was swap Davis for Morrow, and let Rondon walk, with a bunch of flyers like Alvarez added.
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Assuming its an oversight, since we've not signed a guy since Theo said we're still looking for at LEAST one more pen arm. But Rosenthal didn't mention us in his list of teams still shopping. At any rate, I can see us trading for our other guy. If not, maybe we're holding off until we know for sure what Wade is doing? Assuming we don't bring him back, I guess its one of Reed, Kintzler, or Cishek. After that, I'd love to wait the market out and grab one of Jared Hughes, Sergio Romo, Xavier Cedeno, Zach Duke, Boone Logan, or Tony Watson(if he doesn't grab a 2 year deal).
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0%. He didn't have TJS until around mid season.
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When do we get the new TV deal? After next year? Maybe the just plan to say horsefeathers the LT (not Dodgers level disregard but fine going 30-50 over) starting next year with that coming in to place. Its not that we can't spend that much, its the penalties involved. No team is going 40 over.