MeatampPotatoesMan

when has he shown up his teammates? :? Todd Walker last year. How so?

when has he shown up his teammates? :? he's a young kid. i've seen a lot less antics on the mound as he's gotten older. blanco also keeps a leash on him, so that's good. :D

At this point, Big Bird is a viable option in RF. Anything but Jones.

Prior's value is at a low right now. If he puts up '03 numbers for a full season, he will be untouchable. As low as his value is, he's worth Tejada (this supposed #3 in all of baseball). Food for thought.

Sure it is. To use an extreme example, if they raise the mound 5 inches next year, and only two players hit above .250, wouldn't it be a great year if you hit .255, even if you averaged .300 prior to that? Obviously there's no one thing to point to, nor is the change that drastic, but with steroid testing and other factors, offense was down this year. Comparatively speaking, Tejada was better in '05 than in '04. I don't buy that. In 2004, he had more HR's, RBI's, Runs, Hits, total bases, Walks, fewer K's, a higher average, higher OBP, and a higher SLG. He was better in 04. If you want to factor in the rest of the league, then maybe he was relatively better in 05. But he was better in 04. Tejada's BABIP has been pretty high the last 2 seasons (and in 2002). It isn't coincidence that those were his 3 best years. However, BABIP wise, he was out of line with the rest of his career. Either that increase in BABIP is just part of his game, or he's going to take a dip in the next couple of seasons (to the 750-800 OPS) level.

We know Guzman likely has the stuff if healthy, but he's like Wood. You can't count on him. Hill is going to get eaten alive by MLB batters, even though he has a ridiculous curve and decent fastball. Counting on him to put up positive VORP in his first couple of MLB seasons isn't a great idea, IMO. He could surprise us though. I don't think Cedeno is the answer at SS from what I've seen hitting wise. He'll be more than fine in the field, but his lack of walks troubles me. The loss in production from Prior (or Z's) departure isn't something we can stomach. You don't just go out and find another pitcher who can put up those numbers. Burnett was the closest example of a pitcher available in FA/trade this offseason, and he isn't even close to touching Z or Prior's (when 100% healthy) production. Look at how much freaking money Burnett raked in. If we overspend on someone like Burnett to replace Prior, that just makes our offense that much more limited. Our minor league arms are legit #5s, but that's a huge difference from Prior's numbers. Jeez, last year he had 30+ VORP while not at 100% health and missed time. Prior has the stuff. Look at his K rate. That's ridiculous when comparing him against the other SP in MLB. Top tier stuff. I'm not worried about prior's health. He's not Wood or Guzman. SS is a hard spot to fill, but we're not really losing much by not having a stud there. Who are legit studs at SS anyway? All of them (I don't consider Lopez a stud quite yet although he could be) are in the AL. Furcal and Rollins definitely aren't studs and the difference in their production and the next guys down on the list is minimal. We don't lose much against the competition by not having Tejada at SS. (I realize that makes SS a spot for huge improvement against the competition) However, Miggy is going to be 30 years old this season. My problem is that this looks so attractive b/c of the pathetic OF we've assembled. I can stomach Murton. Pierre will be ok if his BABIP doesn't tank. Jones is nigh worthless. I too want a big bat, but Tejada isn't the answer.

I really don't see how. Tejada's production, considering he is a SS, is pretty remarkable. You might disagree, but it's certainly not ridiculous to rank Tejada third. And I would take him over Lee any day of the week. It's pretty easy to find a decent bat at 1st. Agreed. I love D-Lee, and his defense and speed are advantages over Miggy. But their overall production are very similar, and Tejada plays a much harder position to get production from. As much as I love Lee, I'd take Pujols over him of course, and I'd regard any of Todd Helton, Adam Dunn, Mark Teixeira and perhaps a year or two ago, Carlos Delgado, as just as good. At SS I'm a Jeter fan, and of course A-Rod if he played there. But then there's Miggy, and quite a drop-off after that. I'd rate Miggy top 3 at SS, easily, but not overall. Pujols, ARod, Manny Ramirez, and Cabrera are all better players. It's not Miggy's ability that concerns me. It's giving up a young arm, who is dominant unless he's getting run into by someone or taking a line drive off an elbow, for a 30 year old player. That's a huge no-no and I'd rather Hendry didn't screw us over for the next 5-10 years by trading Prior or Z. I'd rather not have that whiner on this team anyway. He had his pick of clubs when he was a FA and now he's complaining about where he ended up. Sweet. Swapping Prior for Tejada just exchanges one piece for another. You have to look at the differences in production not just at SS, but also with Prior leaving the rotation. Does the swap leave us better off in the short term? I doubt it, since we'd probably be bringing in a minor leaguer into the rotation. It certainly wouldn't be the smart long term decision for this ballclub given the ages of the players in question.

He might be the best at his position, if you don't take into account defense.

Yeah, that's pretty ridiculous.

check this out. :) viewtopic.php?t=29011

What does BP project Wood to do? Less than 20 starts? If so, then i think the Cubs could improve on the above projection just out of a healthy season from Wood (yes, i know that may be asking a lot). BP projects Wood to get 100 innings of relief. And I think what you said was MPM's point. Anyway, the way to figure it out exactly would be to take his VORP from 2003 or maybe his career average VORP, subtract William's projected VORP, and plug into baseball's pythagorean theroem. Per these projections: Wood's VORP in 99IP (of relief) = 24 Williams VORP in 160IP (28 starts) = 7.0 If you play the numbers, you unfortunately have to remove the 2 games Wood "wins" with his 24 VORP in relief and change some of those innings to Williams (or someone) in the bullpen who is unlikley to be as good. If you suppose Wood would have a VORP of 36 with 50% more innings (150IP) and his bullpen replacement is Williams, then you're looking at another 12 runs prevented. So Wood in 150IP makes this team look about a win better, and in 200IP makes it look about 2 wins better. Damn. I was starting to get optimistic. [-X Will I ever learn?

I would have rather had his 1 year deal than Rusch's 2 year deal. Not me. Yes me. Cause Weaver's deal is one yr, and his deal is off the books after the season. Weaver would pitch just solid enough to fetch a pick or two (because Weaver won't aceept arb)when he signs elsewhere. Whereas, Rusch wouldn't fetch the Cubs 2 bits on the dollar for his services. I agree, but that's mostly b/c I think Rusch is worthless. :D

Where does that put us when wood makes 20+ starts? :D

If we're going to assume everyone is healthy: 1) Wood 2) Prior 3) Zambrano 4) Buerhle 5) Garland Buerhle really doesn't impress me, either in the flesh or by looking at his stats. But hey, he wins games, and that's solely a function of the pitcher. :roll:

Boise - right where he ended last season, IIRC

I think so. yes. ...with a healthy rotation it would. God playing LF for the Cubs couldn't save us from some combo of Z/Prior/Wood missing significant time. A top 5 offense could help offset one signifigant pitching injury. A top 5 offense got Cincinnati 73 wins last season. Texas (another top 5 offense) had 79 wins last season. ONE park effects TWO one significant pitching injury to us should still leave us with a well above average pitching staff, which cincy and texas didnt have. Texas was ranked 15 out of 30 in park factors (Cinci was 24). A rotation of Z, Maddux, Rusch, Williams, and Hill/Koronka/whoever is above average? Maybe in the NL, and only just barely. Z is awesome, but he can't make up for the other 4 mediocre arms in the rotation. If everyone's healthy, we're looking at Wood / Prior / Zambrano / Maddux / Williams, which would be amazing. A top 5 offense would definitely put us over 90 wins, maybe even way over depending on the pen. Last year we did have a significant pitching advantage over Cinci (I won't even compare us to Texas since they're in the AL). Other than Claussen and Harang, they were worthless. Let's look at 2005 VORP for our theoretical starting rotation: Zambrano 51.0 Maddux 28.1 Williams 16.0 Rusch 11.1 Hill/Koronka/whoever - x Let's look at Florida, an average pitching staff in 2005. Willis 68.1 Beckett 36.2 Burnett 33.1 Moehler 16.3 Lieter -11.2 (in 80.0 IP) The 2005 Marlins were average/below average in the NL for OPS, WHIP, K/BB, and ERA. The numbers they put up are much better than what our theoretical staff can put up. Throw in Prior at a VORP of 30.8 instead of our minor leaguer and we still don't make up the difference.

I think so. yes. ...with a healthy rotation it would. God playing LF for the Cubs couldn't save us from some combo of Z/Prior/Wood missing significant time. A top 5 offense could help offset one signifigant pitching injury. A top 5 offense got Cincinnati 73 wins last season. Texas (another top 5 offense) had 79 wins last season.

you can tell it's definitely spring training :lol: :lol:

the Evil Empire

I think so. yes. ...with a healthy rotation it would. God playing LF for the Cubs couldn't save us from some combo of Z/Prior/Wood missing significant time.

Wood and Wade aren't similar pitchers. Wood has much better stuff. His K-rate and WHIP are a notch above Miller's. Willer isn't bad by any stretch of the imagination, but Wood is dominating. Isn't this Miller's first lengthy stint on the DL?

Hendry must be assuming we're going to the WS.

It might add another 1-2 mph on his fastball when it flies forward.

Dempster, rofl.

:lol: Williams is going to beat Rusch out for a spot in the rotation.