CardsFanInChiTown

Wow, if this is true 3\30 is a good deal.

That same article mentioned Jocketty wanting to improve the bullpen, and to leave the rotation largely intact. If "largely intact" means waving goodbye to Morris and signing AJ Burnett, I'm happy. But if it means just bringing Reyes up I will not be pleased. I really think we have to go hard after Burnett. I know he is a risky investement but pitchers like him do not grow on trees. We certainly don't have anything like him in our system. Our rotation is perfect for winning us the division, but it couldn't even shut down the Astros linuep when it counted. I think Giles should be our top priority, IMO our bats let us down in the NLCS.

That's cool, again if that's the expectations then I think over paying for Giles makes a lot of sense. Just trying the help frame the debate.

All teams have nice surpises and tough luck. I expect the Cubs will have both next season.

poop 4-2 Houston

It'll be a whole lot better if them Astros put up a crooked number right here !! :wink: Go Sox! :D

Not to sound like a troll but, the Cubs should only do that deal if they believe they are one player away from seriously contending for the world series. That's stupid. We have the money to spend, we need to improve our outfield, and Giles does that. We cant dick around and make little piddling improvements until we get close enough to a WS that one player will put us over the hump. We need big changes, now. I guess I wouldn't be that keen on overpaying for a player who is likely to decline unless I thought my team would seriously contend for the WS the next year. There is some wisdom in that, except for a few things: 1, if things go right this offseason, we very well might be contending next year, as has already been said. 2, Giles' discipline is not likely to decline. His power numbers and average might, but he'll probably always be posting a pretty decent OBP, and hitting for better than average power, especially in Wrigley. Plus, he seems to be in very good shape, so I think that decline that people are anticipating won't be as steep as you think. 3, Given the above point, he will always have some value - if not to us, then to somebody else who can take on that kind of contract (Yankees, Red Sox, etc.). Frist off, good post. 1. If this is the belief then by all mean by all mean overpay, I was just trying to help frame debate. I guess I'm of the opinion the Cubs might contend but I doubt it. Again, not to sounds like a troll\CardsHomer but this is a team that finished 10 games out of the WC and 4th place in the central. BTW, I don't want to hijack the thread with this part of my post. 2. That is true, I would just worry about injury and what not. Guys in their mid 30's and up tend to break down more and have sharper declines. Again, its worth it if you believe this team will be a contender next year. 3. I have a feeling those teams are going to better job of not taking on overpaid old guys in the future. That said is Giles has a slow decline then yes, they could prolly get rid of him. As a said before guys in their mid to late 30's tend to have (but not always) nastier declines. I thought the Maddux signing in 04 was a good one even tho he was old and I knew they were overpaying because going in to the season they had a great shot for the WS. I'm not so sure, I would feel the same for the Cubs going in to 06. The Cubs have a tough offseason, lots of $ and a lousy FA class. It should be interesting. Not to poke holes in your debate, but you and I both know the Cubs would have been a much better team if Walker, Aramis, Prior, Wood and Nomar. Being healthy would have made the Cubs a threat to at least take the wild card. Sure if the Cubs are completely heathly things would have been better. Can you expect that next year? Can you expect DLee to be the best hitter in baseball again? How about Demp being a good closer?

Not to sound like a troll but, the Cubs should only do that deal if they believe they are one player away from seriously contending for the world series. That's stupid. We have the money to spend, we need to improve our outfield, and Giles does that. We cant dick around and make little piddling improvements until we get close enough to a WS that one player will put us over the hump. We need big changes, now. I guess I wouldn't be that keen on overpaying for a player who is likely to decline unless I thought my team would seriously contend for the WS the next year. There is some wisdom in that, except for a few things: 1, if things go right this offseason, we very well might be contending next year, as has already been said. 2, Giles' discipline is not likely to decline. His power numbers and average might, but he'll probably always be posting a pretty decent OBP, and hitting for better than average power, especially in Wrigley. Plus, he seems to be in very good shape, so I think that decline that people are anticipating won't be as steep as you think. 3, Given the above point, he will always have some value - if not to us, then to somebody else who can take on that kind of contract (Yankees, Red Sox, etc.). Frist off, good post. 1. If this is the belief then by all mean by all mean over pay, I was just trying to help frame debate. I guess I'm of the opinion the Cubs might contend but I doubt it. Again, not to sounds like a troll\CardsHomer but this is a team that finished 10 games out of the WC and 4th place in the central. BTW, I don't want to hijack the thread with this part of my post. 2. That is true, I would just worry about injury and what not. Guys in their mid 30's and up tend to break down more and have sharper declines. Again, its worth it if you believe this team will be a contender next year. 3. I have a feeling those teams are going to do a better job of not taking on overpaid old guys in the future. That said if Giles has a slow decline then yes, they could might be able to unload him. But as a said before guys in their mid to late 30's tend to have (but not always) nastier declines. I thought the Maddux signing in 04 was a good one even though he was old and I knew they were overpaying because the Cubs had a great shot for the WS. I'm not so sure I would feel the same way for the 06 Cubs. The Cubs have a tough offseason, lots of $ and a lousy FA class. It should be interesting.

Most likely not... that's why it's bold! :D

This is a pretty good game.

Buehrle is lookin good. I love to watch that guy pitch.

Welcome to October baseball

Bagwell is a black hole in Houston's lineup.

Lets hope the weather holds up!

Not to sound like a troll but, the Cubs should only do that deal if they believe they are one player away from seriously contending for the world series. That's stupid. We have the money to spend, we need to improve our outfield, and Giles does that. We cant dick around and make little piddling improvements until we get close enough to a WS that one player will put us over the hump. We need big changes, now. I guess I wouldn't be that keen on overpaying for a player who is likely to decline unless I thought my team would seriously contend for the WS the next year.

Not to sound like a troll but, the Cubs should only do that deal if they believe they are one player away from seriously contending for the world series.

Here's a new article on the Cards offseason here. Nothing real shocking, it does mention Giles:

Why? Why can't each pitch become much worse and worse? Have you read any data that suggests this is true? If so, i would be interested to see it. I don't think PAP takes in account for everything however it is interesting stat - particularly for young pitchers.

While on baseball prospectus I checked out the final Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) Report for 05. For anyone who doesn't know PAP is a way to measure pitcher workloads and abuse. Anyway, it comes at no surprise that Livan Hernandez was number one by a huge margin. I wasn't shocked to see Carlos Zambrano at number 2. I was however flabbergasted to see Mark Prior at number 3 considering the guy didn't even pitch for a good part of the year. In short - Dusty is killing your young guns... Here's the report: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=25 Wanna learn more about PAP? 1: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1477 2: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1480 3: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=666

Creepy? What are you talking about? That's not creepy at all. I just got a chill up my spine.

I hate everyone - including you.

yes.

I think this is a seductive argument however I really don't want to see the number of playoff team increase. I really hate NBA, NFL and NHL playoff formats.

This is the only change I think MLB should make. I don't see upsets as a bad thing - sports would be pretty boring if the best team always won!

First off welcome Fred Burke!!! I don't agree with all the stuff TLR does however after witnessing the train wreck here in Chicago *cough* Dusty *cough* Baker *cough* I gotta say I'm pretty happy to have him. Another way I look at it is Walt Jocketty, Dave Duncan and TLR are a package that follows each other everywhere. Do you really want to lose Jocketty and Duncan? This group has had success everywhere they've gone. I say keep em'!