craig

I think it is encouraging that the Cubs though Skulina was worth $800K. I'm sure there were lots of other players available who'd have signed for slot; or who were still rated among the top 120 and would have been willing to sign for 2nd-round cash. But McLeod and the scouts liked Skulina. I think that speaks optimistically about what they hope he might become if he responds well to coaching.

Just the cost. I would have been shocked had he not signed. I think it's going to be pretty rare for any picks in the top-10 rounds to not sign, for Cubs or for any other team, so long as the current rules work. Players can list their signing expectations. Teams can see that, and can call and talk to the players or their advisors before they pick. I expect it will be very rare for a team to use picks on guys whose stated signing expectations don't match the clubs' willingness to pay. By contrast I don't think it will be rare at all for players to have signing expectations that exceed slot, and for teams to be willing to meet those. I assume that's all that happened here. Skulina expected 2nd round money or better, nobody drafted him in the second round, but in the 4th the Cubs were able to meet that expectation and scouted him favorably enough to make it worth doing so. I assume Masek and frazier will also have listed signing expectations higher than 5th and 6th round, and in each case the Cubs were willing to pay what it took. I'll be shocked if either of them sign for slot. And I wouldn't be surprised if both Masek and Frazier are at least $200K over slot. I just think there is so much discussion of price in advance of actual selections that teams always know what they're in for, and won't take guys on days 1 and 2 unless they are willing to pay. No surprises, no suspense about whether guys will or won't sign. The only suspense really is for how much, and whether some overslot 3rd-day guys might also be affordable.

Yeah, really weird.

He was pretty much like that in instrux, too. Whatever it was McLeod saw in him that looked so polished, it didn't appear to be his ability to make contact.

Wonder if he has gained any velocity or this is purely awesome movement/control against lower level hitters. http://www.idahopress.com/members/high-hopes-for-hawks-hurlers/article_59b879de-d3fb-11e2-8946-0019bb2963f4.html Hmm... The alleged weight gain, that's pretty significant. You'd think that some better velocity could result, although of course not necessarily. The 91-94, I may be wrong but I suspect they just snagged that out of BA's draft notes from last summer or their prospects book this winter. By most accounts there wasn't much (if any) 91-94 last summer at mesa. An actual controlled 91-94 2-seamer, if he now or someday could be working there regularly, would be a great pitch. Last summer he had 13 K's in 6 starts/21 innings. Fun to see 8 K's already in first start. These Northwest league lineups are pretty weak now, before the college draft picks sign, get into shape, and get integrated. Often half or more of the starting lineup won't be starting in July or August. Still, it's a very fun start. One single, one flyout, everything else K's or groundouts.

Hmm, I don't think it confirms anything at all. Their number one priority has been to get him to the United States. He could have just been throwing pen sessions for all we know. Getting pulled after 1.1 looks like standard operating procedure for a guy on a 30-pitch count. In Mesa, they don't usually pitch guys in "games" until their pitch count is 30; enough for two innings if sharp, but with a couple of walks and K's that probably wasn't enough to get him through the 2nd. As you say, cal, they had him throwing pens months ago. Other guys have been pitching in DSL games for two weeks, with pitch counts that have allowed them to go multiple innings. So doesn't seem likely that if he's been 100% healthy all year, that he'd have been held out and would now be being gradually introduced on a 30-pitch count. Whatever his hypothetical health issue, I have no reason to assume it's anything serious. But I don't see why the visa think would explain why he's on a delayed 30-pitch type count when other DSL pitchers aren't. The simpler explanation is that he, being a pitcher, has experienced some health issue. Perhaps a different, less probable hypothesis is that he was throwing earlier, but then they decided to shut him down and rest him for a while. And are now just starting to "spring training" him up again. Perhaps they figured little purpose in exhausting his usage for the year in Dominican, and they wanted to save some usage just in case he ever is allowed to come over?

Is Jiminez or any of the other players we think we're interested in old enough to be signed right away, or is he one who they'd need to wait a month or more before he becomes eligible?

Good news, I guess, but partly bad too. I'd hoped there was something else going on, that he was too old for the league or something. This would seem to confirm that he's been not playing because he's been injured.

$21,100 over slot. Hmm, I didn't picture him as a guy that needed to go overslot. I don't picture any HS pick after the 4th round signing for slot, unless they are really academically incompetent and are totally unqualified for college. Given how much academic assistance is available for even very poor students, not that many guys are in that boat.

I think that "neighborhood" number is literally "neighborhood". Reference was made to 3rd round dollars, which range from around $750-500. Where in the range Clifton settled, we don't know. The author in that article made some factual errors. So I'm not sure how reliable some of his details were. One was that the Cubs took Clifton with their first Saturday pick. They didn't, everybody else had a shot at him before the Cubs selected, but nobody else selected him. Which suggests that the Cubs either had no fear that he'd get taken by somebody else, or else that they'd have been OK if he had been and would have been fine with selecting a different guy in his place. I'm partly guessing that perhaps it was more at the high-priced end of the 3rd round. That would have left fewer other teams who had the cash space left to beat it, and would have also been closer to the $800K that Clifton's supposedly listed.

Are there any concerns that Lake made 5 errors in the last two days? Or is that a non-issue?

The toughest signs outside the top 10 will be/were 12th founder Trevor Clifton, 24th rounder Tyler Alamo, 25th rounder Marcus Doi and any of the HS or JC guys in the 30s, including 37th rounder Jeremy Martinez. How significant is Alamo, do you think? Seemed like the scouting reports said he was big so he might have power, but other than size they didn't sound that positive to me. I wonder how much overslot he cost? I'll be surprised if he cost more than $250, but I'm just guessing. Were there any rumors on that?

I agree, he sounds like a really good prospect who seems well qualified to be a 3rd round pick. Few 3rd round guys end up being good major leaguers, so he'll probably prove inadequate like most of the others, in which case the judgment that he was a poor choice/overdraft will remain viable. But it seems from the scouting reports that his physical qualities are well qualified or overqualified for where he was taken. Top-end speed, 15-20 HR power, CF-quality defensive tools, and seemingly having the hit tool, what's lacking? Seems like the only criticism was that he's 22 and inexperienced. But if a guy is a natural hitter with a good stroke who was really productive even after missing 2.5 years, why can't he be a good hitter when he's playing consistently and getting optimal coaching? If he comes up as a good player when he's 25 or 26 instead of when he's 22 or 23, I don't care, as long as he's good when he arrives. I also think that if Theo think he's the BPA in round 3, he should probably take him in round 3. There are a lot of smart scouts around the business. If you see a guy who you think is really good and is BPA right now, I think you should assume that some other scouts might recognize those same qualities, regardless of the BA rankings, such that he may not be available a round later. (Granted, if there's somebody else you like just as well, maybe take that guy now and hope Hannemann still lasts another round. I suspect the Cubs didn't do that because somebody in that room really felt that Hannemann was better than, not just interchangeable with, the alternatives at that spot.)

So obviously the Cubs couldn't have gotten him a round later, and he's not a flagrant overdraft. Interesting, actually, that Toronto would have been calling him that far ahead. It's one thing to be the top guy on your board at 47 (or 41); it's another to already be knowing that when the draft is only at 25. They must have had him pretty high on their board.

Clifton has agreed, for 3rd round money.

bryan, thanks for all the research and info. Really awesome to pop on here and have a bunch of info right away. Alamo sounds interesting. #348 on the BA list. Given the dreadful situation at catcher in the Cub system, any top-500 catcher is obviously interesting. My assumption is that Clifton pretty much emptied the overslot fund, so I doubt there's anything left, and I expect a pick like this is a "just in case" pick. (Just in case he changes his mind and really does want to go pro; just in case somebody who said they'd sign for XYZ changes their mind; just in case somebody fails their physical....) Still, it would be fun if I was wrong, and if they really still do have some superslot money left.

I wonder if any later picks, whether Clifton, Masek, or Frazier, will outprice Hannemann? Or Skulina, for that matter? Those slots are $736 and $477.

I don't know anything about him, but that would seem to be more the kind of picks I'm anticipating. A guy who's a meaningful prospect, and might develop into a good prospect. But who's not going to get a million bucks or anything like that. I tried to look Eicholtz up on BA's top-500 list, and he wasn't listed. He was #47 on their Florida list, right behind Karsten Whitson, who is also not on BA's top 500. So, Eicholz may not be anything amazing, but obviously lots of guys who end up being 1st-rounders weren't coming out of HS either. That's the job of the scouts to find some of these guys, and gets some pitchers who could become pretty good if they fill out, improve their delivery, and get coached well. I expect several of those, rather than one big ticket prospect. But, of course, what do I know, I'm just speculating.

I assume that Serrano and Jones are totally off bounds. No idea how much Sheffield or Whitson are asking. I assume the Cubs are doing some accounting to figure out how much they'll need to spend to cover the guys taken thus far, and then doing a whole bunch of phone-calling to players they like who are still out there. Not sure how much they've got left, but it could still be pretty substantial. I wouldn't be surprised if Frazier or Masek might be overslot guys to varying degree. Still, I assume they've got something to work with. My guess is that it won't go all to one superslot, one $1.5 million type guy. But rather that they'd have several guys more in the Eicholtz type category, guys who might not sign for $100K, but might for $250 or $425 or something. I'm hoping they can add several more guys who could have been legit 4th-5th round type picks, and who have the potential to perhaps blossom into really good players.

100%

.... This is exactly what I've been thinking. When everybody is going with 10K guys in the next rounds, the ability to keep going overslot gives you a good chance to grab several more guys who you like well enough to be 4th/5th round guys, but who happened to slip through or whom weren't quite willing to take slot. There is no question but that the team is going to use it's money. It's not a matter of cheap, it's a matter of deciding how to spend a finite amount, when, on whom. Hannemann might be somewhat overslot, or maybe right on, who knows. Masek may well involve some overslot.

Carrie Muskat

I'm with Kyle on this. I think the obsession with $$ being way overblown. These are just straight-out scouting picks, BPA (so long as price doesn't go Serrano-prohibitive). Callis might have Hannemann at 214, but Cub scouts saw it differently. Callis might have Z at 76, Cubs saw him being much better than that. Neither pick was made to save money. They were made as scouting picks, because McLeod etc. likes these guys. Maybe for good reason, maybe not. But it's just an issue of scouting, not money. From the quotes, it sounds like Hannemann might sign for slot. But if he's off of slot, he'll probably be over rather than under.

I wonder if there isn't some opportunity there. When other teams have run out of cash and need to be picking $10K guys, if you can be offering $200-300, I wonder if there might not be a bunch of guys who hoped to be 3rd-5th round and who'd rather sign for 5th-6th round cash than delay the dream go to school? Either way, I'm sure the Cubs will know what they've got going. If they've picked some guys they know are going to cost, and they need some extra hundreds, go with the $10K picks. But, maybe that won't be needed. Other thoughts $$-wise: one great prospect is probably worth more than several sorta-good ones. So I understand the push to go for some $2.5 guy..... if the scouts really believe he's pretty special. But I wonder if going for the super super-slot demand guys isn't kinda poor dollar usage? Underwood, for example, was $235K over. Not huge, but that overslot was enough to secure a very good-value pick. If we've got $1.5 in discretionary, I wonder if it isn't actually better to go for 3-5 guys you like a lot but who are $300-500K over, rather than to blow it all on one superslot guy? All depends on the scouting, I guess. If the scouts really think Denny is a great prospect, one good player who ends up being a quality starter is well worth it. But perhaps it would be as smart to get several guys instead.

Agree. There are some college pitchers who are finished, and won't change. But I think it's a myth to assume that a 20-year-old college pick won't change in the pros. *The fastball can change. Lots get a little stronger at ages 21-22-23; improve their mechanics/delivery a little; and end with more velocity. *The breaking ball can change, a lot. Lots are still tinkering with their breaking ball in college without settling into the best or having done so with consistency. Think of Samardzija, and how many iterations of breaking ball he's gone through since he was in college. *The changeup can change. For Z that sounds like it's already an advanced plus pitch. But for a lot of college pitchers, the change is kind of an inconsistent underused show-me pitch. In the pros, that often changes. *The cutter can change. For most college pitchers, the cutter is a "tinker on the side" pitch, but hasn't been optimized into a crucial game-usage pitch; in the pros that can often become an absolutely integral tool. For attacking opposite-side hitters, for throwing strikes and controlling the count, for getting contact outs.