craig

Thanks, ctcf. That's pretty nice review on aa. The comment that his throwing mechanism looks better for 2B than SS, I'm not sure I understand , but that's really encouraging. Caution, of course, is that having a beautiful BP swing involves hitting straightballs. I suspect Alcantara's high K-rate reflects that he's got some limitations that won't be evidenced in bp.

I'd take the 20 on that bet.

Please check my replies from last year before saying everyone. Agreed, there were plenty of posters last year who observed that Olt struck out like crazy and was a high-failure-risk prospect. And it's not like having another year of struggle since shouldn't be allowed to influence ideas. The premise with prospects is that they'll get better with experience. When they don't, it's good reason to drop the arrow on them a whole bunch. Unfortunately the Cubs have had lots of prospects who were supposed to improve with experience but didn't.

Agree. Third guy, fine. "Advanced" guy so they can more easily justify a trade in which one of the two primary guy is in A-ball, great. But he's such a remote long-shot in my book. Jackson, Ian stewart, we're 0-2 lately on those kinds of guys. Maybe it's time to get Olt and finish the strikeout.

I'd like John Garcia.

Wil Remillard, the good defensive catch-and-throw catcher with no bat who was drafted in the late teens, has apparently tweeted that he's signed.

This is a good point. I suspect that BA has pretty good access to mlb sources, so my guess is that what they report is pretty much accurate. But what comes from Boras might be different. Perhaps Bryant has a $6.7 deal, but $250 of that is for dental school? Who knows.

Over his last 4 outings, 21-year-old Austin Reed has 10K/1BB/4hits/10 innings, no runs. 4 outings isn't much for a guy who's been chronically wild and hittable with no K-pitch. But you never know.

You can see why players love Boras. He's got nothing to work with, every logic says the Cubs should have been able to get Bryant for a lot less. But somehow Boras plays tough, the Cubs give in, and Boras gets an incredibly good deal. Boras is the best, there is no doubt about it. I'm really surprised that the Cubs gave in so far. I suspect this also reflects the Cubs either not being honest with themselves in terms of what Boras told them in their pre-draft discussion; or else Boras not being honest. I'm pretty certain the Cubs thought they'd essentially had an agreement on a price prior to the draft, and that's why they thought they knew what they had to work with in terms of Clifton etc.. I'm pretty sure Boras changed his story after the draft from what they thought he'd agreed to before the draft. Regardless, as Kyle has noted, usually you'll win or lose with your top pick. Bryant will define this draft, not Clifton.

AJ Morris has been good as a starter. No HR's helps, even though his K-rate isn't great.

Peralta in August. Do we know what happened with Peralta? INjury, or reworking his messed up mechanics, or what?

The "smartness" involved, of course, involves paying $2 per dollar. You need to outbid the market to get a guy in the first place, so you're paying $1 mill for guys that other teams won't pay a million for. With the tax, you're paying $2 million for guys that nobody else will give a million for.

Thanks, David. It was horrific, over a one-month sample. Now it's improved back to bad, but it's staying steady at bad. I guess it's something. I guess I've been perceiving it as consistently bad, with some of the ups and downs that happen with all hitters but don't necessarily mean anything. He had some K "ups" in April, and he had a week in June that was an anti-K "down". Maybe it means something, but maybe those are just some of the routine highs and lows that every hitter goes through, and the overall picture gives as good or better a picture than either April or June.

It may be that this season is a fluke. But this year Alcantara's been really good LH, and I hope that's not a fluke. He's never been especially good RH, and has never had power RH. Alcantara's career is sub-.700 as a RH hitter, with .374 slugging and only 3 HR career. If we were just looking at RH Alcantara, I don't think we'd be that interested in him as a prospect. It's the LH power that makes him a prospect to become a quality big-league starter.

All 12 of Alcantara's HR's have been LH, and hitting LH he's got a .912 OPS with .538 slugging. That is really good. RH he's hitting .228 with a .298 OBP and .318 slugging. So I think some platoon future should almost be expected, if he's going to become a starter rather than a utility player. The game tends to have quite a few RH-hitting middle infielders, so finding a platoon 2B who does well versus the occasional LH starter shouldn't be that hard. If Alcantara can become a good 120-start platoon 2B, partnered with a 40-start RH guy, that looks very reasonable to me. Alcantara has had his challenges defensively at SS. So I think getting him over primarily to 2B as soon as possible makes a lot of sense. Barney has been a terrific defender, but he's so limited offensively that we should be looking towards a replacement ASAP. Barney himself might be a good partner. he's been a .700+ OPS guy versus LHP. A guy like that who'd be OK as the minor platoon guy, and then available as a natural defender backing up SS would be a good roster fit. SS to 2B may be one of the easier switches, but the footwork on the DP for example is not easy. If Alcantara got moved over last week, and spends all of this season, all winter/camp, and all of next summer working at 2B, then by late next season he might be ready to play big-league defensive 2B. By next August, perhaps he could be ready for a serious call up as a platoon starter. I think it's a good plan. And hope that between Castro and Baez, one of them might be able to play an adequate SS long-term.

I don't see much of a decrease in K-rate. Or at most a very modest, incremental one. He's still striking out every day and striking out about 1/4 of his AB's. The progress in BB's, yes, that I think is real. And to do that without the K's going up a bunch, maybe that's pretty good. But I don't see much substantial reduction in his K-rate. Might be interesting to see how the AA thing goes. Perhaps pitchers won't be quite as scared and will throw him more strikes, so perhaps he'll get more HR-pitches and fewer walks. So maybe it will be nicer for him. Or maybe better pitching with better breaking stuff will have him as challenged as he was last summer at Daytona, who knows. Should be interesting to track. On Alcantara, I think he'll play 2nd. In his last 5 games, he's had four at 2B and one at DH, so I think maybe the switch to 2B has perhaps already happened. Which I think makes good sense. I think AA has a chance to become a very good defensive 2B, and a good player as a 2B. I think it's also easier to set up a platoon at 2B than SS, so if AA ends up making it as the primary LH half of a platoon, that could end up working.

I also found that really unexpected. The only way that can make sense is if they wanted Guerrier. Guerrier was a really effective relief workhorse for many years in the AL, so I wonder if Theo kind of developed a respect for him and he still has hopes for Guerrier to be or to become again a safe strike-throwing reliever. Perhaps the Cubs scouts think he's coming back, or can be effective again with what he's got now. I assume that they want an experience strike-throwing type veteran. Camp was supposed to be that guy, they must think Guerrier might take that role. Obviously giving away slot money to save $0.5M in payroll was not the motivation. The motivation must have been some desire to get Guerrier.

BA now has Wilson and Garner dollars, both underslot by enough to get out from penalty. Essentially using the BA numbers, picks 2-10 are all signed. Even with the reported Skulina money, they are within the 5% overage for selections 2-10, and would NOT be in penalty now, even if Bryant did not sign. So there is no longer any reason to be holding Skulina back. If his deal isn't going through, then there is something else going on unrelated to penalty or to Bryant not having signed yet. But Boras does not have penalty leverage now; the Cubs do not NEED Bryant to sign in order to escape penalty. Once Bryant signs, that will free up cash for Clifton and whomever else they may pay overslot to in the 11-40 rounds. If Bryant signs at $6.25, they'd have about $800K to play with. (Clifton asked for $800, so even if they give him all of that, he'd absorb $700K in overslot.) If Bryant signs at $6.0, the Cubs would have over a million for Clifton plus. If Bryant came in at $5.6, there would still be $1400K to use on Clifton plus.

If Bryant chose not to sign, the Cubs would either be in penalty and lose next year's pick, or else they'd need to get under by recouping that $67K excess via Garner and Wilson. Or else have it such that Skulina is not actually signed, formally, so that they aren't so far over.

Crum signed for $25,000 despite having a year of eligibility. After turning down $100,000 last year. Weird. He wanted 7-figures from the Cubs when he was drafted out of high school. Guess his expectations fell a bit. I was looking through list of previous Cub drafts from some years past. Pretty common that guys who seemed intriguing at draft, and who didn't sign over money or whatever, never turn out much. There are some Bryant and Appel and Prior guys who go to/return to college as high-value guys, and get picked higher. But certainly more exception than norm.

As cal mentioned, it will be really interesting to see how they handle the pitchers. Godley, who threw over 100 innings. But Z, Skulina, Masek, Frazier, and Garner, and Wagner, they've have all thrown in the 78-94 innings range. And they've all had a break since their seasons ended. Will be very interesting to see how long it takes before any of them get worked back into any box score games, and how many more innings they're allowed to throw. It's a pretty good-sized pool of reasonably healthy college juniors to consider. Last year Johnson threw around ten innings, but he was a special arm risk, so may have gotten especially cautious use. Heesch got 25, but he was a senior, so maybe the juniors won't be allowed that many? Or maybe they'll be allowed more, because he was a $10K guy of low developmental priority?

Everybody starts in Mesa, to get their feet wet, as cal noted. Often that ends up being one or two weeks, if that, of box-score games. For pitchers, they won't go in games until they've thrown some on the side. I think often a pitcher won't be allowed into a box-score game until he's built up to 30 pitches. I think Mesa is often a better instructional place. Lots of practice fields and video facilities. Little-know travel. Lots of pitchers around to throw to hitters. Who knows what they'll do with Hanneman. As a freshman, does he need more coaching and tutorizing?

Baez still will get one or two more AB's this game. But if he finishes hitless, it will be 9 games ago since his last hit in play.

Agreed. Bryant is worth about maybe $1.4 in discretionary funds. (Assuming he signs for $5.6, he would be $1.1 under slot plus 5% of his slot would be other $0.3.) If he refused to sign, and the Cubs already had Clifton/Alamo/Skulina/Masek/Frazier/Garner all signed to overslot deals, as I expect will happen eventually, the Cubs would be hopelessly overspent. Which would be a good situation for Boras. "You've over the limit if we don't sign, so you're paying the penalty. If we do sign, but over the limit, you're paying no more penalty than if we don't sign. So since you're paying the penalty either way, you may as well get the talent....."

Deleted double post.