I think when you've got a guy like Luck, who is proving to be everything the experts thought he could be thus far, keeping it close and giving him a chance to win it late isn't a bad play. Also, those two blowout losses, to the Bears on the road in week 1 and to the Jets on the road the week after the emotional Pagano stuff and win against the Packers. I wouldn't be surprised to see them win both of the Jax and KC road games. The two home games they're favored in are good bets for Ws as well. And with as bad as the rest of the AFC appears to be, 9-7 probably gets them in.