Isn't this a pretty damn good deal for the {redacted}? I mean, the Tigers just gave Anibal Sanchez 5/80, right? If Wainwright doesn't miss a season's worth of time I doubt they'll have huge regrets, but Wainwright's injury history is far from clean and he's 32 this year, so they're taking on their share of risk. To compare with a teammate that has a similar background, Chris Carpenter missed his age 28 season with TJS(Wainwright missed age 29). The 5 years starting with his age 31 season, he threw 670 IP and accumulated 13.7 fWAR. Very good when healthy, but not healthy as much as you'd like. I don't think you can really compare Wainwright and Carpenter since one had a relatively commonly successful elbow surgery and Carpenter came back from a much less frequently successful shoulder surgery. Also, Wainwright had problems with the elbow for years before the complete tear and was very effective. Given how well he came back in his first season after TJS and didn't seem to have any lingering effects from it, I don't think he's any more of a risk than signing any pitcher to a $20M/year deal would be.