The Cubs are still one game under their Pythagorean projection, and right at their adjusted EQA projection. They are a couple games ahead of their 3rd level projection (Adjusted EQA). Roster-wise, who is overperforming? Theriot, DeRosa and Cedeno, maybe, but not by a whole lot, and any overperforming is explained by a difference in OBP. Derrek Lee is underperforming at this point. Dempster will likely come down, but it's just as likely as Lilly coming back and performing at his normal rate. Marquis is not likely to keep performing as he is and continue pitching. Hill, Marshall, and Gallagher should be able to provide extra rotation support if any of the other pitchers falter. As for the Cardinals, they are overplaying all their projections, by 2-3 games each. Plus, guys like Ludwick, Schumaker, and Molina aren't likely to maintain their pace, and you'd be hard pressed to find anyone else available in the lineup or on the bench that should improve significantly. Wellemeyer is as off the charts as Dempster at this time, Looper's peripherals are going to catch up with him eventually, and Lohse is also having his best year in a while. Isringhausen fell apart, but Franklin stepped up nicely, so it's not as if they're worse in the pen than expected. I do find it scary that the Cubs really aren't playing above their heads to this point. They're just playing to their potential, which they haven't done in 10 years.