bukie

In-depth stats on the next set of S-Curve selections: Team RPI Pom Sag Pred W L 1-25 26-50 51-100 101-200 200+ R/N SOS NCS EM Arizona 15 28 21 19 25 6 1-3 4-2 7-0 10-1 3-0 8-6 44 129 .06 Connecticut 24 21 16 20 23 9 4-8 4-1 6-0 2-0 7-0 10-5 14 173 .01 Florida 10 19 18 23 24 6 2-2 5-0 6-1 6-3 5-0 10-3 42 105 .12 Georgetown 12 32 17 25 21 10 4-8 4-2 5-0 6-0 2-0 11-6 2 27 .00 Kentucky 11 10 15 8 22 8 4-3 1-2 4-2 8-1 3-0 7-8 31 46 .12 Louisville 21 14 14 14 23 8 7-4 1-2 5-2 2-0 8-0 5-5 36 293 .06 North Carolina 6 11 12 13 24 6 2-3 6-1 9-2 4-0 3-0 9-6 11 35 .11 San Diego State 3 9 6 11 27 2 2-2 3-0 6-0 13-0 3-0 15-1 43 61 .16 St. John's 23 34 23 33 21 10 7-4 2-2 4-2 4-1 4-1 8-7 7 97 .02 Syracuse 17 12 9 12 25 6 4-3 5-2 7-1 5-0 4-0 9-3 23 213 .09 West Virginia 19 22 19 18 20 11 5-6 2-2 6-3 5-0 2-0 8-9 3 21 .05 Wisconsin 13 7 11 9 23 7 4-5 4-2 8-0 2-0 5-0 7-7 13 202 .10

Well, it certainly doesn't hurt them.

I went ahead and gave you the Jags since I'm pretty sure we don't have one on the board. You can have the Chargers if we start tripling up, but I really don't want to do that. I'm pretty sure he just called you the only jag on the board.

What happened there? The box score doesn't jive with this. Virginia led by 10 with the ball with 40 seconds to play and let Miami tie it and send the game to overtime.

Double the turnovers, half the free throws, and gave up 13 offensive boards.

Kemba Walker hit a buzzer beater to beat Pitt. Kansas in a battle with Oklahoma State in the second half. And I'm not sure I've ever seen a collapse as bad as Virginia against Miami.

OK, I tossed in placeholder teams for all the conferences that hadn't completed tournaments yet, so we can rank the bottom 12 auto-bids for placement in the bottom of the S-Curve. The placeholder team is the odds-on favorite, not necessarily the best team (i.e. UTEP is the favorite in the CUSA tourney because it's on their home floor).

And someone is going to have to explain to me what makes Memphis an at large candidate beyond that they're Memphis. Alabama, I can buy the argument that they have the second best record in the 7th best conference (in the worst division I've ever seen), and they have played better the second half of the season.

I may ask for a fifth list of ranking the bottom 12 auto-bids, but I'll have to do some digging for placeholder teams for one-bid conferences that haven't completed yet.

Updated lists: S-Curve (8): Remaining at-large pool (28): Auto bids (13 of 31): Consideration board (34 teams for 1-9 spots): For today: 1) Rank the following 12 teams in order for the next 8 spots on the S-Curve: 2) Rank the next 12 teams from auto bids/at-large for placement on the S-Curve. 3) Rank the top 12 teams in consideration for potential at-large pool placement. One will be placed for sure, the next 7-9 will be placed in potential spots barring bid theft (If Utah State is one of them, they are another potential auto bid from a conference). 4) Rank the bottom 16 teams in consideration for removal (there are more to remove than to place). 5) Rank the bottom 12 auto-bids (placeholder teams in parentheses for conferences not yet done with tournaments) for placement at the bottom of the S-Curve.

What's scary is that even with the teams in the at-large pool, there are still up to 9 spots available for the remaining consideration board.

Today's results: Top 8 on the S-Curve: 1. Ohio State 2. Kansas 3. Pittsburgh 4. Duke 5. Notre Dame 6. Purdue 7. Texas 8. BYU 8 teams removed from consideration (alpha order): Arkansas Dayton George Washington Marshall Miami Southern Miss Tulsa UCF 8 teams into at-large pool (alpha order): Clemson Florida State Illinois Marquette Tennessee UNLV Washington Xavier Next 6 into the S-Curve selection (alpha order): Arizona Connecticut Kentucky Louisville St. John's West Virginia

I'll get this information interpreted as soon as I can.

Well, it's official. Bulls clinch the Central division. And nobody wants the 8 spot in the East. Milwaukee has won 4 of their last 10 and gained on a spot.

Long Island wins the Northeast.

As for today's lists from me: 12 For removal: 12 for at-large pool: Top 14 overall: Top 8 remaining:

UCF is a weird case, where they were outstanding at the beginning and end of the year, and had a completely unexplainable collapse in the middle. They went 6-10 in Conference USA. The "outstanding at the end of the year" was a 5-2 finish that included two 1-point wins at home, two 3-point wins (one at home) and a 6 point win. I think their start was mainly a function of winning close games against decent teams in the state of Florida and then beating a bunch of patsies. I don't know if they're an at-large consideration for the NIT. Oh, I'm not saying they're even in the tournament ballpark, but if Memphis is a consideration, then half of CUSA had to be.

UCF is a weird case, where they were outstanding at the beginning and end of the year, and had a completely unexplainable collapse in the middle. GW and Tulsa I agree, as well as Arkansas and Marshall. EDIT: By Marshall I mean Memphis, who has an awful profile and is only getting attention because they're Memphis.

In depth data on the S-Curve selection teams: Team RPI Pom Sag Pred W L 1-25 26-50 51-100 101-200 200+ R/N SOS NCS EM BYU 4 8 5 7 27 3 5-0 1-3 4-0 13-0 4-0 16-2 59 99 .18 Duke 5 3 4 3 27 4 2-1 6-3 12-0 3-0 4-0 10-4 27 70 .16 Florida 10 19 19 22 24 6 2-2 4-0 6-1 6-3 5-0 10-3 42 104 .12 Georgetown 11 26 16 19 21 9 4-7 4-2 5-0 6-0 2-0 11-5 2 27 .00 Kansas 1 2 2 2 29 2 3-2 7-0 8-0 7-0 4-0 13-1 40 175 .17 North Carolina 6 11 12 13 24 6 2-3 6-1 9-2 4-0 3-0 9-6 11 36 .11 Notre Dame 9 15 11 15 25 5 6-3 5-2 5-0 2-0 7-0 8-5 19 250 .07 Ohio State 2 1 1 1 29 2 5-2 7-0 9-0 5-0 4-0 9-2 20 241 .16 Pittsburgh 7 6 3 5 27 4 6-2 5-1 4-1 7-0 5-0 10-2 32 239 .15 Purdue 8 4 7 6 25 6 4-3 7-0 6-3 4-0 4-0 9-6 10 165 .13 San Diego State 3 9 6 11 27 2 2-2 3-0 6-0 13-0 3-0 15-1 43 62 .16 Syracuse 18 12 9 12 25 6 4-2 5-3 6-1 6-0 4-0 9-3 22 210 .09 Texas 14 5 8 4 25 6 4-3 3-2 5-1 7-0 6-0 9-4 36 91 .20 Wisconsin 13 7 10 9 23 7 3-5 5-2 8-0 2-0 5-0 7-7 13 203 .10 Key: RPI = RPI rating Pom = Pomeroy rating Sag = Sagarin rating Pred = Sagarin Predictor W/L = duh? 1-25, etc = record vs. Pomeroy ranked teams (since record vs. RPI teams isn't easy to calculate) R/N = Road/Neutral record SOS = Overall strength of schedule NCS = Non-conference SOS EM = Efficiency margin - calculated by John Gasaway, a measure of how much better a team has been than their opponents in games.

Villanova should absolutely make the tournament, but their seeding may be well below teams that aren't locked yet. As far as one bid leagues, there are 16 for sure one-bid leagues: America East, Atlantic Sun (Belmont), Big Sky, Big South (UNC Asheville), Big West, MAAC (St. Peter's), MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley (Morehead State), Patriot, Southern (Wofford), Southland, SWAC, Summit (Oakland) and Sun Belt (Arkansas-Little Rock). An additional 8 leagues have no more than one lock, so could potentially be one-bid leagues: Atlantic-10, Colonial (Old Dominion), Conference USA, Horizon (Butler), Ivy, Missouri Valley (Indiana State), West Coast (Gonzaga) and WAC. Which leaves 7 leagues that are locked into multiple bids: ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Mountain West, Pac-10 and SEC. With 28 at-large locks representing 8 leagues, that leaves anywhere from 9-17 bids available for the teams still in consideration.

Added a 5th set of lists and the information didn't change, so yay? During the day, I'll figure out what the one-bid leagues are, and if anyone thinks we missed someone for consideration (and I really doubt we did, unless there are some avid Coastal Carolina fans), or thinks someone under consideration should absolutely be a lock, discuss!

god as much as i hate bosh, wade was worse during that video. i'd forgotten how shameful that display was. it says it all that the PA announcer would describe three guys as "your miami heat." To be fair to the PA announcer, in July, that was basically the entire team (except Chalmers).

If anyone else sends me a list overnight, I'll update this tomorrow morning. I have a total of 4 lists so far, including mine. So, according to those lists: At-large Locks (28): Consideration Pool (50): By the end of tomorrow, send me 4 lists: 1) Top 12 teams under consideration to fill in at-large field 2) Bottom 12 teams under consideration to thin the consideration board. 3) Rank the following 14 teams in order. If you rep one of the teams, leave them out of your ranking, and it will be factored into the results (top 8 will go to S-Curve): 4) After those 14, rank the next 8 teams from among the at-large pool and the automatic bids (see first post).

One hour to go, I have two submissions so far.

The NBA's first team to have a championship celebration the summer before the season.