bukie
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Everything posted by bukie
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Link/summary of front page stories, maybe let mods/admins do the same for worthwhile posts/discussions.
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Unfortunately, if a team wants premium talent, they'll likely have to pay a premium to get it. No reason to bid yourself up, of course, but chances are if the Cubs do land Pujols/Fielder, they'll have paid above value to get one of them. -
Please tell me Zook didn't call for a fake FG.
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I know this doesn't deserve it's own thread - Castro WAR ?
bukie replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Extrapolated to this year's complete set of PAs, it's about 4.75 WAR. With the hopes that he can improve his fielding metrics, there's no reason to believe he can't be about a 5 WAR player as early as next year. EDIT: Bah, answered already. I did the extrapolation, though! -
Well, he did once trade Carlos Lee for Scott Podsednik, maybe he'll trade Carlos Quentin for Tony Campana.
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Since when was Scott Feldman one of their best hitters?
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Hypothetical, say Theriot reaches via a walk and loads the bases...would you IBB Pujols with the bases loaded up 2 to force in a run, just so he doesn't beat you?
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You get Theriot out, and then you walk Pujols. No question.
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Due up this inning: Daniel Descalso, John Jay, Jason Motte and Ryan Theriot. If Oliver walks any of them, he's a fool.
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Either that or Ryan Theriot.
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Let's just top this all off with another Napoli HR.
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Free Agent Predictions
bukie replied to UMFan83's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Albert Pujols - Cubs Prince Fielder - Cardinals CC Sabathia - Yankees CJ Wilson - Red Sox Jose Reyes - Cubs Jimmy Rollins - Phillies Aramis Ramirez - Cubs Carlos Beltran - Angels David Ortiz - Rangers Jonathan Papelbon - Red Sox Francisco Rodriguez - Red Sox Heath Bell - Padres Brad Lidge - Cardinals Joe Nathan - Twins Jonathan Broxton - Yankees Ryan Madson - Phillies Mark Buehrle - Cardinals Michael Cuddyer - White Sox Carlos Pena - Brewers Yu Darvish - Yankees Edwin Jackson - Cubs Johnny Damon - Rays -
Another random thought...would you trade Soriano straight up for Carl Crawford? No other money trading hands, just a straight player and contract swap. EDIT: I'm intrigued by the idea because it works for both teams. Crawford's defensive value is wasted at Fenway, and Soriano's biggest defensive deficiency (range) would be nullified at Fenway. Crawford's a good bet to rebound, but his contract rolls on two years longer than Soriano's.
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This is the place for wish lists, no? Screw conservative realism, I'm shooting for the moon.
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I know you're just spitballing, but do you really think there's a remote possibility to sign Pujols (or Prince), Wilson (or Edwin), Oswalt, Grady Sizemore or Jason Kubel, and possibly Jose Reyes, on top of extending both Castro and Garza? If Dempster doesn't exercise his option, they trade Z and Soriano (that's where the back-end SP/OF money would come from), and they expand the payroll to $150M like has been rumored, then it's possible, yes.
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The biggest thing in Dempster's favor if he declines his option is that three of the biggest free agent players will be looking primarily for pitching.
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In order of priority: 1) 1B and SP: Go hard after Pujols for 8 years and CJ Wilson for 4 years. If either fails, go hard after Fielder for 5 years and/or Edwin Jackson for 3-4 years. 2) SS and SP - Sign Castro and Garza to extensions beyond their arbitration years, possibly Castro to a Longoria-like contract. 3) SP - Hang onto Zambrano unless someone offers something of value for him. Sign a FA back-end starter (Oswalt?) to a 2-year deal. 3) 3B - Offer arbitration to Ramirez. If he accepts, work out a contract and roll with him for a year. If not, take the compensatory pick and roll with a LeMahieu/Flaherty/Baker platoon 4) CF - Let Brett Jackson play. Shift Byrd to a corner OF position for a year. 5) LF - Explore trade options for Soriano, looking to salvage half his salary, and then use the savings to pick up a Grady Sizemore or possibly Jason Kubel. 6) RP - Sell high(ish?) on Marmol, pick up Capps/Broxton(?) on a one-year incentive-laden deal. Wood, Marshall, Samardzija, Russell, Cashner form solid pen. 7) 2B - See what Reyes wants, see if he fits into the budget on a 3-4 year deal. Let Barney be the backup utility IF. 8) Bench - Non-tender Hill/DeWitt, let Castillo be the backup C, let Colvin or LaHair be the 4th OF/1B backup. Campana can be the utility OF.
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Who will be the manager? Quade Fired (pg 15)
bukie replied to Magnetic Curses's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
YOU DON'T HAVE TO BE THAT OLD TO REMEMBER HIS PLAYING DAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!! Yeah, the guy retired for good after 1997. Anybody over the age of 18 is old enough to remember at least a bit of his playing days. -
Free Agent Predictions
bukie replied to UMFan83's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I don't have a problem with short-term solutions as long as they're signed to be short-term solutions, and don't get a couple years tacked on to the contract for the heck of it. -
Just because it's published, doesn't mean it's legitimate.
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I like it, the stadium is about a 10 minute drive for me, and I don't have to deal with the city traffic. :P
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Here's my argument for Fielder: Everyone agrees that Fielder will most likely decline much sharper and earlier than the average superstar player. Pujols is a once-a-generation type hitter whose season hit a decline this year and was still about as good as Fielder. How early do we think Fielder will start to decline? Four years down the road? Five? Let's just assume for the sake of argument that Fielder has four years left in him before he starts to decline. Unless Pujols can be counted on to rebound and avoid injury, the best case scenario for Pujols is about as good as Fielder was this year, while it's reasonable to think Fielder can still improve over the next 2-3 years. So it's reasonable to expect more return out of Fielder during the years we'd expect either to be productive in their contracts.
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Free Agent Predictions
bukie replied to UMFan83's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
For reference, Pujols' 5.1 WAR this season was as good or better than 4 of Fielder's 6 seasons. Also, after a slow start, he hit .316/.383/.571/.954 over his last 520 PA's this year. Those numbers surpass Fielder's 2011 when you include park factors. That's the big difference. When Albert slows down, he puts up Prince Fielder seasons on the way down instead of Ted Williams seasons. When Fielder slows down, he puts up Dmitri Young seasons on the way down. Unless you think that Pujols will rebound somewhat and remain relatively injury-free, though, going forward the best case for Albert Pujols is Prince Fielder seasons with passable defense. The next five years, the comparison will be between Fielder's age 28-32 seasons and Pujols' age 32-36 seasons. Even if we all assume Fielder will drop off a cliff after that, Pujols will likely be well declined by then as well. So, over the next five years, who will have more value? Pujols, who is already declining, or Fielder, who may still be improving yet for a couple years? -
It does disappoint me that we wasted 20 years twiddling our thumbs, because the inefficiencies get smaller every year as teams get smarter. I'm just expecting Epstein and Friends to find small inefficiencies and mostly just bludgeon the NL Central with our financial resources. Of course, as the gap between front office development strategies lessens, the greater the payroll gap makes a difference. If every team is doing the same thing, the team that does more of it is in better shape to deal with mistakes and risks.
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I don't think he fits either of the last 2 qualities. Up the middle is the one spot we don't need to bring in new players for. Between Soto, Castro, Jackson/Szczur, and Barney/DeWitt/DJL/Flaherty/Gonzalez, the Cubs should be fine. Yeah, given the Cubs' draft strategy the past several years of drafting almost exclusively SS and failed SS, if they can manage to generate an ability to do any kind of positive development on the existing prospects it should at least keep their up the middle options covered.
