bukie
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Everything posted by bukie
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I'm not really sure who put a bug up your ass this year on statistical models, but a couple notes: Wisconsin was 11th ranked going into the game, and UNC was favored. I made mention that any ratings system that takes MOV into account is going to be slightly skewed by a big result early (for Wisconsin and Marquette, specifically this year). So I said though their rating was slightly inflated to produce the statistical projection Pomeroy came up with, Ken specifically noted that, and indicated the true odds were closer to 70% in UNC's favor, but the game could largely end up being a toss-up. It was a 4 point game with 30 seconds to play, a position that is favorable to the team in the lead but still largely volatile. If you're going to argue that Wisconsin had virtually no chance in the game down 4 with 30 to play, then fine. Now, if you're actually going to be willing to discuss possibilities and be open to considerations outside your own ass, then I'll be happy to continue discussion. If not, then you're just wasting my time with your condescension, which is admittedly disappointing because I had thought you were better than that.
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I'm an IU fan. As rational as I try to be, you can probably tack on a couple points for my bias. A six-point margin obviously isn't as laughable as a 3.5-point margin, but it's still exceedingly optimistic for IU. Kentucky is loaded. IU has a total of three players that can athletically compete on the same court as UK (though, as I said, I do expect Hulls to play well). Obviously I hope I'm wrong and IU wins, but . . . it would be a very big upset. Anyway, keep on believing Wisconsin is the second best team in the nation. Because that's what I said. I said the UNC-Wisconsin game was a toss-up, and it was. The repeated condescension is really welcome, though. Thanks for the patronizing tone.
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So, expect a 10 point margin, but a 6 point margin is laughable?
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Misc. Free Agent News
bukie replied to Clem Fandango's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I disagree, I think Barney makes a fantastic backup SS. -
Tigers sign Prince - 9/214 - Heyman
bukie replied to ctcf's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I don't have any problem going as high as it takes AAV to get Fielder for 5 years. 6 years would be tolerable, 7 is concerning, beyond that he can go to the Mariners. -
Jones, Maclin if he plays, Decker if Maclin doesn't.
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Tigers sign Prince - 9/214 - Heyman
bukie replied to ctcf's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
The problem with Fielder (and Pujols) for any NL team is that the player's long term value is simply going to be higher for an AL team, due to the possibility of getting more value out of their hitting and eliminating any negative value from declining fielding later in the deal. So an AL team can simply more easily justify going higher with them. -
The funny part of this post is that you tried to make the worst-case batting line absurdly low, and it's still higher than his actual OPS from 2011. The media douches right now are focused on the trade itself, the relative value of the various players. Eventually, it's going to set in that the 2012 starting 3b for the Chicago Cubs is a guy who couldn't even hold a roster spot on the 73-89 2011 Rockies. And if he does that, he won't be the starting 3B by the all-star break. Here's the thing, though...what is this infinitely better option? Starting LeMahieu? Worst case scenario is that Stewart just can't hit anymore, and the Cubs use someone else at 3rd for the majority of the first half of the year and are out 2 million. This is the kind of risk a major market team can take that someone like the Rockies can't.
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Everyone knows Paul isn't coming back. Nobody is going to trade a better player for him, so of course Paul is going to be the best player in the trade. The Hornets were getting four players ranging from slightly above average to top quarter at their position, the Rockets were getting one of the best big men in basketball, and the Lakers weren't going to have enough assets left to get Howard anyway. You really think Orlando was going to accept just Bynum and whatever crap was left on the Lakers for Howard? Actually, yeah. That's why I think there was an uproar. In a vacuum, the Paul trade arguably makes the Lakers worse. But if a Howard deal is contingent on it going down and the other owners believe that, they're gonna wanna kill the Paul deal. If that is the case, they should kill the unfair Howard deal, not the Paul deal. Saying a deal should be killed because it will look better after they make another crazy lopsided deal is a little bass ackwards.
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Everyone knows Paul isn't coming back. Nobody is going to trade a better player for him, so of course Paul is going to be the best player in the trade. The Hornets were getting four players ranging from slightly above average to top quarter at their position, the Rockets were getting one of the best big men in basketball, and the Lakers weren't going to have enough assets left to get Howard anyway. You really think Orlando was going to accept just Bynum and whatever crap was left on the Lakers for Howard?
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Chris Broussard just tweeted that Brandon Roy will be announcing medical retirement.
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The Rockets were getting Gasol. They were making out fine.
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Because when you're a major market team, a move's not worth making unless it costs you 25 mil. If this were Jim Hendry letting Ramirez walk and replacing him with Ian Stewart, the rage would be palpable And Trey is right-ish will get real around here when we don't win the bid for Darvish (still not sold on him) and if we pass on Fielder. If it were Jim Hendry, neither deal would have happened. Complaining about the deal being one a major market team doesn't make is stupid. We're worse now than when we ended the season. And we sucked last season. And while it'll be tough when they break camp next week with nobody manning first, I'm mostly grateful the team still has 2 months to be built. Both moves so far have improved the team, and Ramirez wasn't coming back anyway.
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Because when you're a major market team, a move's not worth making unless it costs you 25 mil. If this were Jim Hendry letting Ramirez walk and replacing him with Ian Stewart, the rage would be palpable And Trey is right-ish will get real around here when we don't win the bid for Darvish (still not sold on him) and if we pass on Fielder. If it were Jim Hendry, neither deal would have happened. Complaining about the deal being one a major market team doesn't make is stupid.
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I can't believe in the whole month the new front office has been here, all they've done is make two good buy-low deals and thinned out the glut of middle infielders in the system. On top of that, they didn't heavily overpay for Pujols and Buehrle, and refused to move the team to LA to accommodate Wilson.
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Because when you're a major market team, a move's not worth making unless it costs you 25 mil.
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Heh, the other owners vetoed the trade.
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You know what always works great? A pro sports team being run by its league.
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Pinkel, Cutcliffe, and Marrone all put OSU 4th, and Troy Calhoun put them 5th. Bah, misread an article that said "two coaches who put OSU lower than third" that I read "the two coaches who put OSU lower than third". Still, that's a bit of a conflict of interest, especially for 1/3 of the BCS factor.
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Fun fact: There were two coaches in the final coaches poll that voted Oklahoma State lower than third. One of them? Nick Saban. The other? Stanford coach David Shaw, who put Stanford 3rd.
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Huh. I wonder if he changed his mind about wanting to play for the Bulls, or if they didn't want him? That is a lot of money for Caron Butler, so my thought is that the Clippers just blew him out of the water with an offer.
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Caron Butler agrees to a 3/$24M deal with the Clippers.
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The Big Ten definitely is better than the Big East in basketball this year, by a large margin. The Big 12 might be better than the Big East this year.
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Jonah Keri weighs in on the newest $250 million man: http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/11778/is-albert-pujols-really-worth-250-million
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Keep in mind he's bracketing based on teams' performance and results right now rather than projecting how they'll end the year. Also, he's basing it on the teams' current RPI (which is comical if you see it).
