The way I see it, there's three levels of matchups: Gimme - Nebraska over Wake Forest Should win - PSU over BC (PSU is bad, but BC is the worst major conference team), IU over NC State, Illinois over Maryland, Purdue over Miami, Clemson over Iowa, Northwestern over Georgia Tech Toss-ups: Virginia Tech-Minnesota, Michigan-Virginia, Florida State-Michigan State, Duke-Ohio State, Wisconsin-North Carolina If the Big Ten teams that should win do win, they'd win the challenge even if they only win one of the toss-up matchups. And 3 of the 5 of those are on the Big Ten team's home floor. EDIT: Pomeroy disagrees. His predictions for game outcomes, from most likely to least likely: 1. Nebraska 73, Wake Forest 62 (86%) 2. Purdue 69, Miami 61 (79%) 3. Ohio State 76, Duke 68 (78%) 4. Michigan State 63, Florida State 59 (68%) 5. Minnesota 68, Virginia Tech 64 (62%) 6. Penn State 62, Boston College 59 (62%) 7. Virginia 56, Michigan 54 (62%) 8. Illinois 69, Maryland 67 (55%) 9. Clemson 66, Iowa 65 (55%) 10. Wisconsin 65, North Carolina 64 (54%) 11. Indiana 75, NC State 74 (53%) 12. Georgia Tech 66, Northwestern 65 (52%) That would still result in the Big Ten winning the challenge 9-3, though.