bukie
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Everything posted by bukie
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Numbers were right, just didn't get them moved into the at-large group.
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Stage 3: 1) Decide on regions for the top 4 of the S-Curve, in order of seed priority. That can just be done in the thread easily enough. 2) Rank the "Next 16" in order. The top 8 will be placed on the S-Curve. 3) Rank the 12 next-most-deserving teams from among at-large locks, auto bids, and teams under consideration. The top 8 will be put into the "Next 16" list. 4) Rank the top 10 and bottom 10 teams in consideration. The 7 best will be put into the field for now, and the bottom 8-ish will be removed from consideration entirely. 5) Rank the bottom 8 teams in the field. The bottom 4 will be placed on the seed line 55-58 (14 seeds). If you feel that remaining auto-bids are stronger teams than other teams already in the field (or in your top 10 list of consideration), feel free to rank at-large teams in this list.
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It's ok, if you have any issues with the teams in (the top 8 was pretty clear, so I'll plan on leaving that the way it is), or off the board that you think deserve extra consideration, just make note of it in the thread.
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Step 2 results: S-Curve (top 8, bottom 10): Next 16: Rest of at-large field (18): Other auto bids (6): Unclaimed auto bids (3): Teams still under at-large consideration (23 for up to 7 more spots): Teams off the board (16):
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If they weren't I just gave them all equal weight.
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There is an extremely clear top 8 consensus, though.
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Still waiting on a couple lists, so I'll post in the morning. As for my phase 2 picks: Top 16: Syracuse (Big East) Kentucky (SEC) North Carolina (ACC) Kansas (Big 12) Ohio State (Big Ten) Michigan State Missouri Duke Indiana Wisconsin Marquette Baylor Georgetown Wichita State Michigan Florida Next 12: Creighton (MVC) UNLV (MWC) St Mary's (WCC) Temple (Atlantic 10) Gonzaga Florida State Murray State (OVC) Iowa State Notre Dame Purdue Kansas State New Mexico Consider Top 16 (in order): Memphis Alabama BYU Washington California St Louis Cincinnati Virginia Connecticut Drexel San Diego State Southern Miss Northwestern Long Beach State West Virginia Texas Low 16 Consider (in order): Valparaiso Arkansas LSU Nevada Oral Roberts Pittsburgh Iowa Colorado Massachusetts Central Florida Mississippi Mississippi State Colorado State Ohio Wyoming Akron Bottom 12 (worst to first): SWAC: (Mississippi Valley State) MEAC: (Norfolk State) Western Kentucky (Sun Belt) Long Island (NEC) America East: (Stony Brook) Loyola MD (MAAC) UNC Asheville (Big South) Detroit (Horizon) Southland: (UT Arlington) Montana (Big Sky) Lehigh (Patriot) MAC: (Ohio)
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A bit over an hour left to get me phase 2. Montana wins the Big Sky, and Savannah State loses in the quarters of the MEAC tourney, which means the MEAC winner will be awful, as usual.
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Long Island wins the NEC, Lehigh upsets Bucknell to win the Patriot league.
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Weber's problem is that he's good at coaching Weber recruits and lousy at coaching Howard recruits. Weber's system works with a specific type of player (slow, disciplined, controlled, good jump shooters), and many of the better athletes that have come to Illinois the past 3-4 years play a much more above-the-rim type game that Weber's offense basically nullified.
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It's Peter Gammons, he's probably just catching up on January news now. -
I could always add Conference RPI to the blind list too, but I'm not sure if that's still part of the committee criteria. EDIT: It's not, but "Average RPI opponent" is, which is kind of interesting. http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect/public/ncaa/pdfs/2012/2012+03-06+mbb+nitty+gritty
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Winning games they're favored to win? We're they favored today? It was a coin-flip game, though UConn was technically favored by 1. The coin landed on its side, so they had to flip again in an overtime period.
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You must be seeing things, that was always New Mexico there... EDIT: But actually, that was a major quibble, because New Mexico ended up being missing entirely from any list as a result.
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Winning games they're favored to win?
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Some days I wish the Bears would've just lost to the Vikings, so they could pick 13th.
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A blind analysis of the top 16: Team RPI SOS R/N Top25 Top50 Top100 100+L 200+L Best Worst A 28 37 8-7 1-4 3-5 8-7 2 0 24 152 B 12 28 6-6 4-4 9-4 11-5 2 0 2 149 C 3 4 10-3 3-4 6-4 11-4 0 0 4 24 D 4 2 13-2 6-4 7-5 13-5 0 0 3 56 E 1 27 11-1 2-0 9-1 16-1 0 0 7 38 F 13 53 12-4 2-2 2-3 6-3 2 0 15 134 G 5 1 7-6 7-5 9-6 11-7 0 0 8 84 H 8 10 7-4 5-5 9-5 12-6 0 0 4 84 I 7 16 10-5 2-2 5-5 11-6 0 0 10 89 J 16 81 11-3 3-1 7-3 10-3 1 0 6 120 K 11 11 8-7 5-4 9-6 12-7 1 0 5 133 L 21 21 9-4 3-6 6-6 10-6 2 0 8 133 M 10 10 6-6 3-3 8-4 8-7 0 0 7 96 N 9 19 11-3 1-4 7-6 11-6 0 0 25 40 O 6 7 10-4 5-3 10-4 12-5 0 0 8 65 P 2 36 12-1 2-1 8-1 15-1 0 0 3 11
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If I can pre-emptively clarify for tired bukie.(And hopefully I get it right) If in list 2 you have a team from the "in consideration" list, you should still include them in list 3. Indeed. And if your team is among the top 16 (UNC, Missouri, Michigan, Illinois), leave them out and rank the top 15. I promise it isn't going to hurt their standing the way I calculate it.
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If anything I just typed in the last page is confusing, just ask and I'll answer in the morning. I'm sleepy.
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Stage 2, for midnight CST Wednesday: 1) Rank the listed top 16 in order. The top 8 will go into the S-Curve, the next 8 will be re-ranked in the next stage with 8 additional teams. 2) List your next top 12 from the teams locked in, auto bids, and other teams under consideration if you feel the need (just one list of the 12 next best teams) 3) List your top 16 teams from those in consideration. There are between 10 and 17 at-large spots yet left unclaimed, pending multi-bid conference tourney results. 4) List the bottom 16 teams from among those in consideration. 51 teams is too many. Some need to be taken off the board. 5) From among the auto bids and unclaimed auto bids (with most likely winner as placeholder), rank the bottom 12 teams.
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Fifty-one teams under consideration, then. That will sort itself out in subsequent stages, trust me.
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Oh, and here were my picks (representing Illinois): Locks (28): Baylor Duke Florida Florida State Georgetown Gonzaga Indiana Iowa State Kansas Kansas State Kentucky Louisville Marquette Memphis Michigan Michigan State Missouri New Mexico North Carolina Notre Dame Ohio State Purdue Syracuse Temple UNLV Vanderbilt Wichita State Wisconsin Consideration (40): Alabama Arizona BYU California Cincinnati Colorado State Connecticut Dayton Drexel Iona La Salle Long Beach State Miami Middle Tennessee Minnesota Mississippi State NC State Nevada Northwestern Ohio Oral Roberts Oregon San Diego State Seton Hall South Dakota State South Florida Southern Miss St Bonaventure St Josephs St Louis Stanford Tennessee Texas UCLA Valparaiso Virginia Washington West Virginia Xavier Top 16: 1. Kentucky 2. Syracuse 3. Kansas 4. North Carolina 5. Ohio State 6. Michigan State 7. Missouri 8. Duke 9. Indiana 10. Wisconsin 11. Marquette 12. Baylor 13. Georgetown 14. Wichita State 15. Michigan 16. Creighton
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Step 1 results: The committee: bukie - Illinois SouthSideRyan - Illinois Transmogrified Tiger - Missouri Formerly Snayke - St. Louis Andy - Notre Dame Vanilla Ice - UNC UMFan - Michigan Top 16: Other at-large locks (11): Other auto bids (12): Other teams under at-large consideration (51): Unclaimed auto bids (12):
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Looks like we're going to end up with 27 locks initially, only 20 of which were unanimous. And 52 teams in consideration. And a clear top 16 for the next step.
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Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Detroit (Horizon), South Dakota State (Summit) and Harvard (Ivy) earned auto bids tonight (which means they aren't going to show up on the at-large locks list or under consideration...because they're automatically in the field).
