bukie
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Everything posted by bukie
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The Mountain West, the best non-conference scheduling conference in the country. Remember, the reason the RPI is so flawed is that 2/3 of the rating is based on what teams you play, and 1/3 is based on what you do.
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1. Your team 2. At-large locks (up to 35, and not including Creighton and Gonzaga, since they are auto bids). Order is not important. 3. Other teams for consideration, unordered. 4. Your top 16 in order As long as I can tell the order in the last list and there aren't more than 35 locks, it's good.
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I got 3 submissions so far, and will be looking for anyone else that wants to participate to submit by the end of the evening tonight. As usual I'll post my lists here for public analysis/ridicule so nobody thinks I'm rigging the numbers at all. Once the lists are submitted, I'll start gathering "nitty gritty" info on the teams. My goal is to get info on both RPI and KP (since KP gives a level of detail that, say, Sagarin does not), but if I run out of time, which system would be everyone's preference? RPI is what is used by the committee itself, usually, but it's not a very good representation as to the actual quality of the teams, and this year's committee chair has publicly stated he uses KP for analysis.
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Iona wins the MAAC, Gonzaga wins the WCC.
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Davidson wins the SoCon, Western Kentucky wins the Sun Belt, James Madison wins the CAA.
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Five auto bids decided tonight: #1 Gonzaga vs #2 Saint Mary's (Gonzaga 72%) in the WCC finals. #4 Iona vs #6 Manhattan (Iona 63%) in the MAAC finals. #1 Davidson vs #3 Charleston (Davidson 75%) in the SoCon finals. #4 Florida International vs #6 Western Kentucky (50/50) in the Sun Belt finals. #1 Northeastern vs #3 James Madison (Northeastern 54%) in the CAA finals. Two more tourneys start up today: -- MAC (KP #58 Akron is a 45.8% favorite) -- MEAC (KP #153 NC-Central is a 34.5% favorite despite Norfolk State going 16-0 in conference)
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Not even close. See: every SWAC champ.
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I enjoy the non-conference record of some of the better teams in the conference. Texas Southern went 16-2 in the SWAC but 1-12 out of it. Arkansas Pine Bluff was 15-3/1-11 and Jackson State was 9-9/1-8. And Texas Southern is ineligible for the postseason, so instead of restructuring their tournament to include the top 8 remaining eligible teams, they made a bracket of 7 teams where 1 gets a bye, 2 plays 5, 3 plays 4 and 6 plays 7. I...have no idea.
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Well, that was fast.
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Here's some fun trivia...who leads all of baseball in bWAR over the past 4 years? Player WAR (Baseball-Reference) 2009-12 ????????????? 26.5 Albert Pujols 26.4 Ryan Braun 25.9 Robinson Cano 25.3 Miguel Cabrera 25.0 Evan Longoria 24.0 Joey Votto 23.1
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I've seen a lot of bizarre tournament formats over the past 10 years, but this year's SWAC is the weirdest.
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As much as Minnesota is worse than their statistical profile suggests, Purdue is better right now than their profile suggests. Iowa is a good team with terrible non conference scheduling.
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I think there are 5 finals today and 5 new conference tourneys starting today, but I'll have to do writeups on it when I'm less busy.
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KenPom is a great tool, but let's not be dogmatic here. Purdue is terrible, Iowa is not good, and Minnesota appears to be a much different team with how they've sank like a stone in the second half(5-10 in their last 15 with losses to Purdue, Northwestern, and Nebraska). You're going to have to explain to me how this is pragmatic.
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Second round: USA, Italy, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico. Two advance to semifinals along with Japan and the Netherlands/Cuba winner. USA v Puerto Rico, Italy v Dominican Republic. Double elimination from this point on. EDIT: Apparently the Netherlands beat Cuba again, and advance to the semifinals.
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only one top 100 win for them (ole miss). hard to see them getting an at large bid. They have a better resume than Iona did last year, and I could see the committee rewarding a dominant regular season champ over a middling major especially with how weak the bubble has looked this year. EDIT: Particularly, for example, Ole Miss.
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USA wins the group, and will face the Dominican Republic/Puerto Rico loser next.
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Team USA has the worst 1B in their group. Discuss.
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Two more bids up for grabs today: #1 Creighton vs #2 Wichita State (Creighton 60%) in the MVC finals. #1S Charleston Southern vs #5N Liberty (Charleston Southern 72%) in the Big South finals.
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I thought Rizzo was playing for Italy.
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Four buzzer beaters so far in the Horizon tournament, including both semis today. Top seed Valpo advances to face 3 seed Wright State in the finals.
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Belmont comes back to win in OT and now 3 bids are spoken for.
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Belmont now trails Murray State 60-56 with just over a minute to play. Could the OVC possibly get 2 bids this season? The MAAC did it last year...
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Run differential. They wouldn't have been eliminated even if Mexico would have won. Now they aren't eliminated even if they lose tonight.
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Late afternoon results: -- Harvard beat Cornell and Princeton lost to Brown so Harvard gets the Ivy auto bid without having to wait until Thursday. -- Wichita State joins Creighton in the MVC finals, so there surprisingly won't be a bid stolen in the MVC this year. -- All the other 1 seeds in conference tourneys have won so far. -- Belmont leads Murray State 41-38 midway through the second half for the OVC bid.
