bukie
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Everything posted by bukie
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Western Michigan wins the MAC, North Carolina Central wins the MEAC, and New Mexico wins the MWC.
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Texas Southern wins the SWAC, and even get the auto bid since they were one of the eligible teams. St. Joe's beat St. Bonnies, and Duke beat NC State, so I think that will prevent any Sunday bid thefts.
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Tulsa may have just stolen a bid by winning CUSA.
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And because it took me so long to put together, it's already wrong, as Albany beat Stony Brook to win the America East.
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First attempt at a bracket, straight S-curve, not worrying about bracket rules yet. http://i.imgur.com/UmeymX8.png
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In one model (the first one), they would have been the last team in. In the second model, they would have been the first team out.
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If I tweak the data to make KP worth more and tier game data worth less (making it closer to 50/50), I get: Safely in: SMU Tennessee Xavier Providence Last four byes: Florida St. Stanford Arizona St. BYU Last four in: Nebraska Kansas St. St. John's Colorado First four out: Utah Dayton St. Joe's Southern Miss Next four out: Illinois Green Bay NC State Missouri
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If I had to guess, I'd have Nebraska and Tennessee in, and Southern Miss and Dayton out.
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Because I hate myself, I ran the data assuming Abrams' shot had gone in, and Illinois would have been the last team in. With the correct data, it's Kansas State. Last four byes: Florida St. Stanford BYU Saint Joseph's Last four in: Southern Miss Dayton Arizona St. Kansas St. First four out: Tennessee Nebraska Missouri St. John's Next four out: Green Bay Illinois Utah North Carolina St.
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I'll update the data as soon as looking at college basketball stuff doesn't anger me.
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Note for future: 10 rounds is probably enough.
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I would have liked to see what would have happened had Abrams been able to make that shot, though.
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Dayton was 2 short of the bye before the loss, so they might go to Dayton, which would be interesting. Nebraska was the last team in yesterday, so it's precarious, especially since Tennessee was on the other edge of the bubble.
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I mean, when the play you draw up out of a timeout with 4 seconds to play results in an open layup for your PG, I don't think the coach is at fault there.
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Ok, that was way more frustrating than losing by 30.
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I'm not sure you've seen Illinois' offense this year.
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Michigan has already missed more 3's than they did the entire game last week against Illinois.
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According to Lunardi's site at least, even with the 4 extra teams Iowa would be pretty cleanly in as they aren't even among the first four byes. I've got Iowa as a 9 seed right now, which is a stark drop from the likely protected seed they were 3 weeks ago.
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Illinois has a formalized agreement with NIT to play, assuming they aren't selected to NCAA tournament. So at least there'll be more basketball for this group, win or lose today.
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Well, a 25% chance to get into the at-large picture is better than I was expecting 10 days ago.
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Stanford over ASU 79-58. Good for Stanford, bad for ASU.
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Updated data (spoiled for long): First 8 out: http://i.imgur.com/2QbJnUC.png Utah and Green Bay are basically done, since they can't improve at all and there won't be enough teams that fall back that far to bump them up by default. NC State and LSU are the only two other teams that could potentially play their way into bubble talk...and only maybe at that.
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Also, the most likely bid thief (UTEP, assuming La Tech was at-large worthy) lost at home in the C-USA quarters to Southern Miss. With Louisiana Tech trouncing their opponent, that guarantees at least one team in the C-USA finals in the at-large consideration. Still could get a bid stolen if, say, Tech makes the finals and loses, but it's significantly less likely now.
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A - Nebraska B - Stanford C - Kansas State D - Illinois E - Tennessee F - Missouri G - St. John's H - Minnesota
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Still a road win against a tourney team.
