bukie

Illinois apparently decided that fast starts are a detriment.

USMNT Gold Cup group:Panama, Haiti, and likely Honduras.

I just realized that everyone participating in this is repping Illinois, so go ahead and include them wherever you think they should go and if we overrated them, oh well.

Next: - Top 16 teams available (not including the 8 in the S-Curve) - Next 16 teams available - Bottom 12 auto bids (assume best available team in unfinished conference tourneys) - Bottom 16 teams in at-large pool, since we're still 15 teams heavy at least.

Current state of the board: S-Curve: 1. Kentucky 2. Duke 3. Virginia 4. Villanova 5. Wisconsin 6. Arizona 7. Gonzaga (WCC) 8. Kansas Other Auto bids (31): AAC America East (Albany/Stony Brook) ACC North Florida (Atlantic Sun) A-10 Big 12 Big East Big Sky Coastal Carolina (Big South) Big Ten Big West Northeastern (CAA) C-USA Valparaiso (Horizon) Ivy (Yale/Harvard) Manhattan (MAAC) MAC MEAC Northern Iowa (MVC) MWC Robert Morris (NEC) Belmont (OVC) Pac 12 Lafayette (Patriot) SEC Southland Wofford (Southern) North Dakota State (Summit) SWAC Sun Belt WAC At-Large Pool (56 teams for 29-41 spots) AAC: Cincinnati, Connecticut, SMU, Temple, Tulsa ACC: Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, Notre Dame A-10: Davidson, Dayton, Rhode Island, Richmond, VCU B1G: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue B12: Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, West Virginia Big East: Butler, Georgetown, Providence, St. John's, Xavier CUSA: Old Dominion MAC: Buffalo MVC: Illinois State, Wichita State MWC: Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State Pac-12: Arizona State, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, Utah SEC: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Mississippi, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt Southland: Stephen F Austin WCC: BYU, Saint Mary's

8 teams taken off the at-large board: Massachusetts Harvard Yale Louisiana Tech Pitt TCU Green Bay Minnesota

S-Curve top 8: 1. Kentucky 2. Duke 3. Virginia 4. Villanova 5. Wisconsin 6. Arizona 7. Gonzaga 8. Kansas

Lafayette wins the Patriot League.

My top 16:

Over 28 years of conference tournaments, Air Force is 5-28.

San Jose State might just be the worst team in D1.

I did run analytics on them though. Utah to me is one of those teams that beats up on bad teams in a bad conference and is overrated as a result.

To be clear we're ranking the bottom 16 from the list of 70 above right? Yeah we'll handle the dregs of the auto bid pool tomorrow.

It's all the ex-Great West, i.e. worst teams in the NCAA without a conference right? Chicago State and...Utah Valley St? I know Grand Canyon is in it because there was a big hubbub about a for-profit university being in Division I. Yeah it's basically New Mexico State and the dregs of division 1.

I've got an easy top 7: Kentucky, Duke, Virginia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Villanova, Gonzaga. After that, there the Big 12 conglomerate of Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa State and Baylor, then hell if I know.

And just to help along the process, here's the KenPom top 25 teams organized by tier performance, as I did last year. http://i.imgur.com/nRiK8i8.png Explanation: A T1 game is a home game against the top 25, neutral against the top 50, or road against the top 75. A T2 game is home vs. 26-60, neutral against 51-100, or road against 76-175. T3 is everything outside that. The PP numbers are scoring and opposition scoring per possession, with the margin posted the column after.

Also, pop quiz: Name two teams currently in the WAC. Yeesh.

Next step: Rank the top 16 teams overall, and the bottom 16 teams in the at-large pool.

Current state of the board: Auto bids (32): AAC America East (Albany/Stony Brook) ACC North Florida (Atlantic Sun) A-10 Big 12 Big East Big Sky Coastal Carolina (Big South) Big Ten Big West Northeastern (CAA) C-USA Valparaiso (Horizon) Ivy (Yale/Harvard) Manhattan (MAAC) MAC MEAC Northern Iowa (MVC) MWC Robert Morris (NEC) Belmont (OVC) Pac 12 Patriot (Lafayette/American) SEC Southland Wofford (Southern) North Dakota State (Summit) SWAC Sun Belt Gonzaga (WCC) WAC At-Large Pool (70 teams for 36-48 spots) AAC: Cincinnati, Connecticut, SMU, Temple, Tulsa ACC: Duke, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, Notre Dame, Pitt, Virginia A-10: Davidson, Dayton, Rhode Island, Richmond, UMass, VCU B1G: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin B12: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, West Virginia Big East: Butler, Georgetown, Providence, St. John's, Villanova, Xavier CUSA: Louisiana Tech, Old Dominion Horizon: Green Bay Ivy: Harvard, Yale MAC: Buffalo MVC: Illinois State, Wichita State MWC: Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State Pac-12: Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, Utah SEC: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt Southland: Stephen F Austin WCC: BYU, Saint Mary's

Gonzaga, North Dakota State, and Valpo clinch auto bids tonight. Green Bay...ehh, probably too little, too late.

Yeah, I don't see a scenario where Murray State or Iona gets an at-large bid. Same, really, for the Ivy loser and the Horizon loser.

Murray State's coach gave what had to be the worst transitive property argument for being a tourney team. They didn't beat tourney teams, but they beat teams who beat tourney teams.

Today's auto bids: Big South: Coastal Carolina MVC: Northern Iowa (saving an at large bid) Atlantic Sun: North Florida

This will be the first time in Patriot League history that the 1 or 2 seed won't win the conference tourney. Reward: likely play in game.

Yale blew the Ivy League title by losing at Dartmouth last night, so Harvard and Yale will play a tiebreaker game for the Ivy League next Saturday at Penn.