indifferent

Vance, although I agree comparing starters to closers is apples and oranges, closers have been awarded and have contended for the CY in the past.

Very true, but that doesn't change expected win/loss. All that indicates is the Cards pitching staff pitch to their strength, inducing ground balls. Cards are not a K staff (with the exception of Carpenter although his high Ks are almost incidental), quite the opposite they pitch to contact for the most part.

jgalt, just to clarify, you're not insinuating that the expected wins/loss narrows the gap between the Cards and the Cubs, are you? I took it as a knock against W/L as a means of gauging pitchers only.

Or that Carpenter is a better pitcher than Clemens... :D Bingo! I didn't want to add fuel to the fire, but this post best supports arguments for Clemens as CY (Carp 19-4 should be 15-7 and Clemens 11-6 should be 15-4).

That's his point, the expected wins/loss means our pitchers are not as "good" (comparatively or isolated) as their win/loss indicates. And jgalt, I think it's an interesting point, so why the need to end the discussion? It's interesting to note the Cards are 19-19 in one run games this season also.

Agreed, when you're looking at wins. Losses Cards gain 6 and Cubs gain 7. That tells me the fact the Cards pitchers have more decisions (albeit favorable ones) factors in. Bullpen factors in as well.

JGalt, I've kept on eye on that also. Altogether that puts the Cards starters at 70-39 when their expected win/loss is 55-45. Suppan at 12-10 should be 9-9 Marquis at 10-13 should be 9-11 That puts the Cubs starters at 41-35 when their expected win/loss is 44-42 (included G. Rusch at 3-6, should be 4-5). Both teams are lucky when looking at expected win/loss.

STL's Bernie Miklasz on Carp and Pujols for CY/MVP http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/columnists.nsf/berniemiklasz/story/25046C7F119203928625706F00324AFA?OpenDocument

Anyone going to this series? I'd be interested in meeting up with some NSBBers before or after the Sat. game at a bar close by. Any takers that wouldn't be afraid to be seen with a Card fan?

Honestly, what is wrong with have the CY runner up and the MVP runner up on your team? No other team can say that. I know no one remembers the runner up, but these two guys are the reason we're in the position we are.

If Clemens gives up 3 or 4 runs in his next couple starts (with his team in a serious playoff hunt), regardless if his ERA is less than Carp's at the end, Carp should get it. Otherwise, right now it's still Clemens.

I'm "projecting", that's how I come up with 4 or 5 games, and not just 3. If you're going to ignore the extra 4 or 5 games, then ignore the 3.1 innings, and 8 earned runs, too. Otherwise, that ONE GAME is going to go a long way toward making up your mind, even though Carpenter will have pitched an extra 4 or 5 games. Suppose Carpenter had given up 16 runs in that one game (3.1 innings), rather than spreading them out over the rest of the year? His ERA for every start EXCEPT THAT ONE would be near what Clemens is doing, but since his overall numbers would be the same (because of the bad 3.1 innings) would still have you saying Clemens is "more than slightly better". Does VORP take into account how Carpenter may have pitched if he'd been locked in tight games all year, like Clemens has been? Does it take into consideration that Carpenter might have not been as aggressive with a 1-0 lead as he has been with a 4-1 lead? You and I both know that pitchers are likely to pitch differently in different situations. You're running out of straws to grasp man. You just keep going from one sidetrack to the other. The difference in ERA from Clemens to Carpenter is the same difference from A.J. Burnett to Brian Moehler. It's not even close. Hey, Brian Moehler's not been that bad!

OK, I'll concede one huge, gaping weakness, our left handed bullpen relief (specifically Ray King).

You seem upset gus_dog. I thought we were cool. If my presence bothers you, I'll be glad to refrain from participating here, as I respect you. Upset? :lol: How could you possibly garner that emotion from a couple of questions? Not upset..., simply curious. No Gus, great minds think alike! Welcome Amy!

Enjoying shades of gray, Tim! I believe it was 35% Dusty, 35% players, and 30% Hendry.

But still good for discussion, what team in baseball has less holes than the Cards? Still humble here and don't by any means think we're a lock for the first round, let alone the Series, but I look around at other teams and I see holes. Again, this is not a thinly veiled attempt to get kudos for the Cards team, but I think most have evolved beyond that at this point.

Thanks for the non-biased summary.

I don't think Cards fans think there's much of a chance with that lineup, but they are still looking forward to getting Walker, Sanders, and Grudz back healthy. If they play every day in the playoffs (and there's no further injuries), I think they go. Still a lot of ifs and I'd agree that there's no sure bet in either league.

FYI, Carp v. Clemens is scheduled for Sun. Sept. 4th. Probably will have something to do with the CY.

Baker had very little to do with the success of the Cubs his first season. Every year since, this club has slipped bit by bit. So you hold him accountable for this year, but refuse to give him credit for his success? Face it, Hendry let him down bad at the beginning of the season. He replaced Sosa and Alou with Hollandsworth and Burnitz. He replaced Matt Clement with nobody. He made the bullpen worse (if that was possible) and he left the bench a disaster. But yes, keep telling yourself it is all Dusty's fault. Hendry is the one who should get the axe. Hendry hurt the bullpen, but Baker finshed it off. How much different might things have been if Dempster had been closing since the start of the season, with Hawkins and Fox (Dusty's fault) setting him up? That's what Hendry wanted, but Baker saw fit to put Hawk in the closer's role (where EVERYONE knew he would fail), Dempster in the rotation (where he was no good), and Rusch in the bullpen. What a freaking waste. How much sense did that make? And it ruined what might have been at least a decent pen. Burnitz has been better than Sosa, but Hendry did mess up not replacing Alou. But Baker messed up just as bad by playing Holla when it was clear he stunk, and players like Dubois (who was marginally better, but better) and Murton festered on the bench. How about using his two worst OBP players in the 1-2 holes for the better part of a month, when Walker was avilable? Dumbassery. As for the rotation, going into the season with a rotation of Prior, Wood, Zambrano, Maddux and Rusch was nothing to complain about, so you can't fault Jim for not replacing Clement. The bench has been a bit of a mess to say the least, but Perez playing through June and July (when he was flat out terrible), using Macias as the first bat off the bench, starting Holla when his strength is as a bench player, etc. has not helped matters any. But you just keep telling yourself it's all Hendry's fault. Both are equally at fault, but Baker is just a poor manager. Like it has been said in this thread, the 2003 playoff run was due to Wood, Prior, Z and Clement. Prior and Wood pitched on a whole other level for two straight months, and we still barely made it. Remember Lenny Harris leading off? Just many in a series of boneheaded Baker moves that got lost in the playoff fervor. The point is that the 2003 season wasn't really Baker's success. He messed up that year, but the rotation pitched like they never have before or since and bailed Dusty out. Dusty has always made his living riding on the coattails of great players and great performances. Matt Williams, Bonds, Kent, Aurilia (when he was good), Robb Nen, Billy Swift, John Burkett, Kerry Wood, Prior, Z, Clement...Dusty has benefitted from the best seasons all and more than they had to offer. And since Dusty likes to let "players police themselves" or delegate to his coaches (That's Larry's department"), you can't credit his coaching for their successes. No matter what he or anyone else says, the total lack of fundamentals, pateince at the plate, etc. reflects on him. He is the man in charge of the house, and it is poorly run, to be kind. You set much adversity in his way, and his teams fold like a lawn chair, as we have seen first hand. So why in the world would we give him a free pass for two years of blatant mismanagement because of one season theat wasn't that great (88 wins doesn't get you in most years) that he had little to do with? Please. I know we all get some warm fuzzies thinking about the pre-game 6 2003 season, but let's not let that cloud our judgement. Dusty wasn't that good then, and he sure isn't now. Hendry isn't with out his very large share of blame, but assigning Bakers share to Jim is patently ridiculous. Dusty has not made the best out of the hand he was dealt, or anywhere even close. If we win next year and Dusty is still in charge, it wil be in spite of him unless he totally overhauls his approach. Excellent post and I would add that until a manager comes close to maximizing the talent he's given, the GM shouldn't get a full share of the blame.

8/24/05 - 8-3 game, 96 pitches through 8. Take him out, Tony!

Since it seems to be a topic that comes up daily, let's check out over/underachievers for both teams (including those that have over/under achieved but could be expected). I'm sure fans of both teams will agree/disagree depending on where their loyalty lies. I'm also not going to comment in great detail in expectation that the thread will flesh out as people post to it. Cards Morris - Overachiever in the sense that most wouldn't expect it given shoulder surgery and last year's performance. Carp - Overachiever although I think he'll remain an elite starter barring injury Walker - Underachiever, expected due to injury Grudz - Overachiever due to injury history only Rolen - Underachiever Edmonds - Underachiever Nunez - Poster boy for overachievement Taguchi - Overachiever Mulder - Could go either way, I still think underachiever based on career body of work vs. one half of season King - Underachiever (as far as expectations, but can see how he would be viewed as on par with career performance) Reyes - Overachiever Marquis - Underachiever To me, Pujols, Eckstein, Suppan, Tavarez, Mabry, and Molina have all been on par with what one would expect. Cubs Wood - Underachiever, expected due to injury Prior - Underachiever, not expected - fluke injury Lee - Overachiever Garciaparra - Underachiever, expected due to injury Patterson - Underachiever Maddux - Underachiever Novoa - Overachiever Dempster - Overachiever mostly because he was coming off injury and had never been in the closer role Hollandsworth - Underachiever Wellemeyer - Underachiever To me, Zambrano, Walker, Burnitz, Perez, Williams, Rusch, Hairston Macias and ARam have all been on par with what one would expect. I didn't put a label one way or the other on Lawton, Dubois, or Murton due to varying lengths of time with the team. That's one Cards fan's take...

In the hand. I have no doubt he will lose some time with this. The Cards are literally dropping like flies!

No hitter through four.