Rob

Not really. It's a one year deal, and Pettitte got his home run rate back in check in the second half, allowing him to post a 2.80 ERA. I'd rather have that deal than the Lilly or Marquis deal. There's almost no chance Lilly or Marquis earns their keep over the next few years, but there's a significantly higher chance that Pettitte can do it for next year only. If it would have worked out, fantastic... if it didn't, he wouldn't be blocking Guzman, Veal, or Gallagher in 2008. I wouldn't... Pettitte is only about 15% better than the average pitcher over the course of his career. Is that worth $16M? I sure don't think so. You'd rather have Lilly for 4 years and 40 mil, when he's never been anything special, or Marquis for 3 years and 21 million fresh off an ERA over 6? Both of those guys have a pretty high chance to implode and become impossible to move. At least with Pettitte you retain roster flexibility and don't block your best prospects.

Am I the only one who doesn't understand what the point of including this note was? Cart blanche Special assistant to the general manager Gary Hughes spent much of the last couple of weeks driving around from field to field on a golf cart with instructions printed on the front: "Do Not Steal, Maim or Mutilate Gary or the golf cart." Hughes related a story of a recent conversation with Bill Murray, the No. 1 celebrity Cubs fan, who invited him to play golf. "There's something on my golf cart I want you to see," the Wilmette native told Hughes. "I think you'll really like it." "What's that?" Hughes asked. "Cupholders," Murray replied. Any excuse to relate a Bill Murray deadpan, I'd imagine.

Not really. It's a one year deal, and Pettitte got his home run rate back in check in the second half, allowing him to post a 2.80 ERA. I'd rather have that deal than the Lilly or Marquis deal. There's almost no chance Lilly or Marquis earns their keep over the next few years, but there's a significantly higher chance that Pettitte can do it for next year only. If it would have worked out, fantastic... if it didn't, he wouldn't be blocking Guzman, Veal, or Gallagher in 2008.

Got an email addy?

The average lifespan for a Type 1 Diabetic when he broke into the league was 25 years. If he's lasted this long, he may as well keep on living another 67 years (which I would love).

Does anybody know exactly when the results will be announced?

With their payroll if the Cubs fail to contend in a league this crummy then Hendry should be shot out of a cannon Do you honestly believe every single one of those predictions and believe there will not be one single 90-win team in the whole darn league? Also, if I'm not mistaken most predictions gravitate toward the mean. It's not surprising that no team has an excessive amount of wins. Do they use pythagorean wins based on RS/RA? This would account for the lack of outliers. IIRC, the Cubs often underachieve relative to pythagorean predictions Close. They use pythaganport with AEqR and AEqRA Pythaganport - A modified form of Bill James' pythagorean formula. Instead of using a fixed exponent (2, 1.83), the "pythagenport" formula derives the exponent from the run environment - the more runs per game, the higher the exponent. The formula for the exponent was X = .45 + 1.5 * log10 ((rs+ra)/g), and then winning percentage is calculated as (rs^x)/(rs^x + ra^x). The formula has been tested for run environments between 4 and 40 runs per game, but breaks down below 4 rpg. AEqR -The number of equivalent runs scored by a team, adjusted for the quality of their opponent's pitching and defense. AEqRA - The number of equivalent runs allowed by a team, adjusted for the quality of their opponent's offense.

Of course players need regular PA to be better hitters. Why do you think PH numbers for regulars are almost always such much worse in the aggregate than their normal numbers?

Clement has been rushed, but he's still a hell of a prospect.

Fantastic, I actually have that book around here somewhere! Cheers!

I like Barrett, but I wouldn't make more than a 3 year commitment, and that's only if pressed. Catchers in their 30's just scare the bejeezus outta me.

Oh thank you so much everybody. I was really hoping to use this story and couldn't figure which one of the dozens of books it came from. I looked through all of em. Figures it was one of the about three I got from the library and didn't actually buy. Once again, thanks everybody!

I really, really, really wish I could get away with just using the Wikipedia article as a source. I'll look through those references, but I know I haven't read any of those things, so it makes me doubt it's actually in any of those.

Hey folks. I'm working on a speech regarding Ron Santo and his qualifications into the Hall of Fame for one of my classes. Now, I know I recall a story about him and Billy Williams in spring training one year, where Rogers Hornsby was going up and down the group of guys there berating all of them, and then suddenly turned and told Ron and Billy they'd make it in the bigs. Only problem is, I have absolutely no recollection where I found that story, and I can't use something like that without a source. So has anybody seen this before? If so, where?

I'm all for a manager that goes by the numbers. He just needs to know what numbers to use. I'm not convinced he wont pick somebody solely off their RBI totals against a pitcher in a limited sample size, ya know?

Yeah, I agree. I especially like discussion on pitching mechanics since I know much less about them than hitting. Well I'm sure you probably already have heard of it, but if you haven't I'd suggest reading "Saving the Pitcher" by Will Carrol.

Given our clubs offensive woes and pitching depth, I'm sure I'm rather have Weiters.

FWIW, the fielding stats used by John Dewan are fairly advanced. Each game is watched and the balls in play are tracked by what vector they are on, how hard they are hit, etc... and each player is given credit for plays they make that the average player at that position wouldn't make, or deducted points for each play the average player would have made that he didn't. It's not a perfect stat, but it is much better than junk like Fielding Percentage or Range Factor.

i doubt little leaguers have the bat control to foul stuff off Are you kidding me? I know some guys on my little league team who hit almost nothing but foul balls. :lol:

Well they paid Marquis 21M over 3 seasons. The absolute worst case scenario with offering Maddux arbritration is having him awarded around 15M for one year, and it likely wouldn't be quite that bad. We could, and did, do worse than keeping Maddux for this season in our rotation baseball wise, and it's hard for me to believe one year of Maddux at 15M isn't still better than three years of Marquis at 21M from a financial perspective. I'm inclined to agree. I've always been of the mind that it's real hard to have a bad one-year deal...

Has anyone affiliated with the team indicated anything like this? Rightly or wrongly, it seems like the club itself is feeling pretty good about having Izturis there. agreed. despite the feelings on this board to the contrary, very few if any winning teams have all star players at all 8 positions. if izturis can stay healthy, hit .250 and play excellent defense i think the cubs will be very happy with his production. with 4 potential .900 ops guys (5 if you include murton), i highly doubt a light hitting ss will keep this team from contending. Building a team based on players who wont "keep this team from contending" is hardly a solid approach to take. of course not. the cubs should just trade izturis to the yankees for arod & mariano and then they would be set. somehow the cards managed to win last year with a light hitting short stop just like the sox won with one in 2005. Wow. All I was trying to say is that any decision by the front office to be complacent with Izturis at SS is a stupid decision. I'm not saying we couldn't possibly overcome an offensive black hole at SS, but Izturis is a far cry offensively from even Eckstein or Uribe.

Has anyone affiliated with the team indicated anything like this? Rightly or wrongly, it seems like the club itself is feeling pretty good about having Izturis there. agreed. despite the feelings on this board to the contrary, very few if any winning teams have all star players at all 8 positions. if izturis can stay healthy, hit .250 and play excellent defense i think the cubs will be very happy with his production. with 4 potential .900 ops guys (5 if you include murton), i highly doubt a light hitting ss will keep this team from contending. Building a team based on players who wont "keep this team from contending" is hardly a solid approach to take.

CERA has always been regarded a junk stat. It's fun to play around with, but it doesn't mean a bloody thing.

Off the top of my head, the highest theoretical value would come from something like this... Lee Ramirez Nomar Soriano Murton Barrett Jones Walker Might want to adjust that if we're facing a team with a Bradford type pitcher that destroys righties, though. A better conventional-style one would probably look like this though. Murton Walker Lee Ramirez Soriano Nomar Jones Barrett I really like the idea of Nomar behind Soriano. A high contact guy like him would help to maximize the value of Soriano's SB. And I really like the idea of a lineup where Barrett could be batted 8th without too much of a fight from the board.

You can offer your own free agents arbitration. If they decline, that's where draft pick compensation comes into play and the team who loses that player will get a pick or 2 if the player is rated at a certain level of all MLB players. huh? :? Essentially, arbitration applies not only to younger players under club control, but for any player whose contract is about to run out (remember: younger players are given one year contracts each year). You can offer arbitration to any player on your team whose contract has run out after the season. In the case of the guys under club control, they're stuck with accepting it. In the case of older guys, they have the choice to accept or decline. If they accept the offer of arbitration (as Walker did), they are automatically tendered a one-year contract for an amount TBD by an arbitrator if they are unable to settle on an amount. If they decline the offer of arbitration to sign with another team, the team that lost the player will be compensated with extra picks in the next draft.