Rob

While I blast Soriano as much as anybody... he did go 30 for 32 on the basepaths two years ago. Depending on which version of Soriano shows up on the bases, it might not be a huge deal for him to be running that often.

Again, FWIW PECOTA predict a .278/.342/.426 line for Pagan, and .245/.318/.378 for Finley. I don't have time to check the other projection systems, but I can't imagine any being too high on a 42 year old who has suffered a severe dropoff lately.

That seems about right to me. Murton should get every at-bat against left-handed starters. That should be somewhere around 200 PA right there. If he gets even 1/3 of the starts aginst right-handed starters, then that would put him at 350, and pinch-hitting and double switches could probably push him up to 400. Jones ends up getting the most at-bats because he is the only one reliable enough to play RF right now (I hope that Murton gets out there and gets acclimated quickly to RF so Murton and Floyd can play against some lefties, I don't want to see Floyd in RF at all), and Floyd takes the rest of the right handed at-bats from Murton and a few of the left-handed bats from Jones. I know many of you hate this practice, but history against certain pitchers might dictate some of the matchups. I don't mind it in a situation like this when the players are likely to be similarly productive anyway (although in different ways)-it's bad when you start Blanco over Barrett because of it, but I think it can be helpful in deciding between similar players for that day. I can also see Lou changing his lineup based on which way the wind is blowing at Wrigley. Forgot to factor in their PH predictions... that's another 93 PA for Murton, which would give him more overall PA than Floyd or Jones (they didn't predict PH for either of them...)

FWIW BP's depth charts predict Murton getting 40% of the PA from LF and 15% from RF for 401 PA... Floyd 373 PA... and Jones 484 PA. Doesn't seem too far from being logical...

Not a day off, just no Cubs pics. Ozzie looks to be checking out some ass: http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20070218/capt.azmg10302181934.white_sox_spring_baseball_azmg103.jpg The White Sox go to Arizona for spring training right? Or is it Florida? I can never remember. But either way, is the heavy jacket really necessary there Ozzie? Arizona, they're out in Tucson. They used to train in Florida, but switched to Arizona a few years ago (I don't recall exactly when). I'd be fairly confident in a prediction that he wears that thing in the shower. Guy is a sociopath.

I always conceed SV on Yahoo leagues. Hell, in my league last year I ran Liriano out of the RP spot (after he got moved into the rotation). It gave me a leg up on all the stats but saves... Granted, Liriano is a special case, but I'm sure you can find a couple solid pitching prospects who came out of the pen last year, or start this year in it. (Brandon McCarthy springs to mind)

On a positive note, I'll predict Scott Moore makes Lou think twice about his decision to carry 12 pitchers to start off the season.

At the expense of having a player who's a negative factor on the offense? You're right I don't. It's not mutually exclusive; you can find a good defense SS who isn't incompetent when he hits. I don't buy that Cesar Izturis can suck at the plate but be an asset simply because he plays good defense at SS. This team is not good enough to have a complete cipher in the batting order. 10 years ago, Cesar might have been a HOF cliber SS ala Ozzie Smith (career .262 hitter) Career 0.075 IsoD... compared to 0.035 for Izturis. And Ozzie was so much better with the glove it's not even funny.

Rotation is chock full right now... I'll go ahead and say Gallagher doesn't make the team out of spring training, seeing as how keeping him on the bench would be such a huge disservice to him and Cubs fans.

Much maligned though Cesar Izturis is (and rightfully so) take a look at his IsoD since he broke into the big leagues. 2001 - 0.010 2002 - 0.021 2003 - 0.031 2004 - 0.042 2005 - 0.045 2006 - 0.050 He's shown steady (if not spectacular) improvement in that regard, and he'll be working with a great hitting coach (two, if you want to count Lou) in his age 27 season. I don't like Izturis much either... but all the markers of a potential breakout season are there. Granted, his breakout would be a league-average offensive shortstop... but it's still something to be cautiously optimistic about.

Good, because signing Finley to even be on this team would be a mistake. I don't know... with Darren Baker gone who is going to sit on the manager's lap at press conferences?

Argh matey! Look for de torrent sites, yar!

Some of us don't have the ability to grow a good goatee or soul patch. :cry: That's a shame. *strokes his beard* yea, *strokes patchy stubble* Indeed. *strokes fantastic goatee.*

Fact: If you remove all the b's from the following sentence, "Jason Marquis beats children," it becomes "Jason Marquis eats children."

Of course we wont. The pitcher wont be batting 3rd.

This is either an omen, or Kerry is just getting his injuries out of the way early this season so he can be a monster the rest of the way. I haven't decided which way I'm leaning yet.

Actually, he probably is. PECOTA is projecting about a half run of ERA in Ryu's favor. CHONE predicts nearly an earned run Ryu's favor and ZiPS favors Ryu as well, although Dan sees them being pretty close. I keep forgetting to use ZiPS and CHONE when I make points about pitching. PECOTA may as well be the definitive source on projections for hitters... but its pitching lags behind (due to the very unpredictable nature of pitching itself). I will go out on a limb and say that all three will be wrong and Marquis will be about a run better than Ryu. Of course you will. You have no professional experience with projecting performances, nor do you have professional credibility that needs sustaining in order to ensure the money keeps coming in (at least not in this area). Not only that, but now Ryu has switched to the AL East. No offense intended of course, but I think I'll continue trusting the people that get paid to make these projections. After everything is said and done, I suspect Ryu's ERA will be slightly better after adjusting for league context.

Actually, he probably is. PECOTA is projecting about a half run of ERA in Ryu's favor. CHONE predicts nearly an earned run Ryu's favor and ZiPS favors Ryu as well, although Dan sees them being pretty close. I keep forgetting to use ZiPS and CHONE when I make points about pitching. PECOTA may as well be the definitive source on projections for hitters... but its pitching lags behind (due to the very unpredictable nature of pitching itself).

Actually, he probably is. PECOTA is projecting about a half run of ERA in Ryu's favor.

JRK is a major league ready starter? He's going to get destroyed in the AL East if they start him. 139.1 IP 3.23 ERA 114 K, 51 BB in the PCL. That ERA is good for sixth in the league. While I agree his ERA will look nasty facing Boston and New York, there's no doubt in my mind that Ryu is major league ready... his cup'o'coffee notwithstanding.

I'd certainly be willing to go Santana, Aybar, and McPherson.

I see Hendry's plan is finally coming together. If he trades enough major-league ready, back-of-the-rotation starters away for next to nothing... well, we might actually need Marquis.

And will likely help a team lose. The 2003 Florida Marlins might have something to say about that. Would you agree with me that Andy Fox (70 G, 120 PA, 21 H, 12 R, 8 RBI, 0 HR, 1 SB, 2 CS for a batting line of .194/.269/.259) was probably detrimental to the chances of the Marlins winning it all in 2003? If you can't agree to that, of course, you should lose any degree of credibility you have. If you can agree to it, however, you are admitting that it is quite possible for teams to win despite the contributions of some people. In that case, isn't it theoretically possible that the Marlins won despite Pierre, not because of him? Saying, "The 2003 Florida Marlins might have something to say about that," while we are talking about individual performance means very little... if anything at all. Hell, I could pull that line out when discussing Andy Fox. Basically, all it means is... nothing. I hardly mean to pick on you, but a pet peeve of mine is empty rhetoric. I simply mean to point out that isolating his individual performance is a much better measure of making arguments. That all being said, Juan Pierre was worth nearly 5 wins over a quadruple A replacement CF (WARP1 of 4.8). For as much money as he was making then, I find it extremely unlikely that he actively hindered the chances of the 2003 Marlins winning it all... though I'm not quite sure how much he may have helped. And he was certainly less valuable than the CPatt/Lofton combo we had that year.

I was the under the impression that "affording" Zambrano isn't the problem, but rather worries about injuries (ala the last two long contracts we gave to pitchers). Santana is consistently the best pitcher in baseball. And he's 27. Why wouldn't one worry about an injury to Santana, but at the same time worry about an injury to Zambrano? I don't get it. In the last 3 years, Santana has averaged over 230 innings. The most innings Zambrano has thrown in a season is 223. The next highest is 214. Granted, Zambrano gets left in too long in many games, but there is no way to no whether Santana or Zambrano can or can't handle the extra abuse they each have been put through. Not all pitchers have the same threshold. Santana ranked 70th last season in pitcher abuse points, only throwing more than 110 pitches in 2 outings all season and another 16 between 101 and 110. Zambrano ranked 2nd, with six starts over 122 pitches, 13 between 110 and 122, and another 13 starts between 101 pitches and 110. Put more succinctly, Santana threw 100 pitches or less in 16 of his starts. Zambrano only did it in one.

I'm pretty sure they could make him a PTBNL, though they might have closed that loophole in the latest CBA.