Rob

They're about even. I'd have to give a slight edge to Murton, though.

Why would you ignore it? Oh, I was saying to ignore it because the ceiling/floor argument actually helps Cedeno's case. If Ronny is at his floor, he's horrible. If he's at his ceiling, he's a well above average SS. If Theriot is at his floor, he's horrible. If he's at his ceiling, he's just bad.

PECOTA isn't a crystal ball. It functions more as an indicator of the actual talent level of the players involved. And in this case, the lessons its giving us are fairly important. Not only was Cedeno's 2006 a fluke year (in the bad way). But Theriot's 2007 performance was a fluke (in the good way). In essence, what PECOTA is telling us is that we haven't seen the real Ronny Cedeno... and that Theriot, horrible though he is, is actually playing over his head. Cedeno is the better player right now.

agreed. cedeno makes too many fielding and baserunning mistakes, and in 2006 he was one of the worst hitters in baseball. the two guys have roughly the same amount of PAs in the majors; Theriot's big league EqA is .260 while Cedeno's is .214. that's right, .214. with theriot you know what you're going to get, and it's mediocrity, but it's not a complete black hole. cedeno could be a better player, but we've got more than a year of major league sample size to look at, and he's been far worse in that time. for a team that is in contention right now, i don't know if you have another year to see if he will sink or swim. Theriot's Projected EqA: .237 Cedeno's Projected EqA: .252 Completely forget all the talk about Cedeno's ceiling/floor vs. Theriot's ceiling/floor. Right now, at this very moment, Cedeno is a better bet to produce this year than Theriot is.

Who cares?

I never understand when people say stuff like this. Getting to the playoffs is much harder than actually having success once you're there. Seriously. Once you make it to the playoffs, its just about luck as much as it is about talent... which isn't the case so much over the course of 162 games in the regular season. But some people choose to romanticize the playoffs as if the team that emerges from them was actually the best that year... no matter what evidence there is to the contrary. Getting to the playoffs is priority #1. If we can do that this year without sacrificing our chances to do so in the coming years, we absolutely need to do that. Trading away players that might add a 5% chance to make the playoffs next year, in exchange for an additional 1% chance to win the world series this year would just be a poor utilization of resources.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cySfw8f0beg

Why? If Roberts came, you would have Derosa and Fontenot as backup infielders. Still don't think the deal will happen, but cutting Cintron should not have any bearing on it. You're assuming Lou feels comfortable at SS with DeRosa or Fontenot for an extended amount of time should anything happen to Theriot... which doesn't appear to be the case.

Cutting Cintron means we wont be trading Cedeno. Cedeno and Gallagher were the only constants in the proposed deals... Getting a deal done just got a whole heckuva lot harder.

I only like fu manchus in Montreal.

Just standard categories (R, HR, RBI, SB, BA, W, SO, SV, ERA, WHIP). And while I don't particularly need help in steals, I could really use a boost in batting average. I am employing Rickie Weeks, Stephen Drew, and Chris Young... and only have Todd Helton really offsetting one of them. Besides, with Santana, Peavy, and Smoltz in the fold... losing Hamels is just trading from depth.

Trade Thome and Kendrick for some starting pitching help. Play Johnson and Kemp in their places.

Deal is accepted and pending league approval (need 6 votes from mostly disinterested owners to shoot it down... it wont get vetoed). My offense just got somewhat fearsome.

This may become less of an issue. Another guy in the league has the worst pitching staff in the league (by far), and a major mancrush on Jay Bruce... he's currently debating a trade of Carl Crawford for Cole Hamels and Jay Bruce. And while that may seem lopsided, the numbers actually show that he would be getting considerably better even if Jay Bruce never takes a cut in the majors this year.

Why aren't you locking this damned thread! I secretly want this thread to cross the 300 page plateau. That way we can say we talked about nothing for 300 pages. That's not exactly a well-kept secret. Well, it was a mighty fine secret until YOU decided to let the cat out of the bag. I didn't let it out. It clawed its way out while I was digging the hole to bury it in.

Why aren't you locking this damned thread! I secretly want this thread to cross the 300 page plateau. That way we can say we talked about nothing for 300 pages. That's not exactly a well-kept secret.

Don't fool yourselves, folks... Rosenthal saying "it's over" doesn't mean that it's actually over.

Now that the Rays have decided officially to send down Evan Longoria, I'm one player short of being able to field a full team. Mark Reynolds is on the waiver wire, so I know I can grab him... but the question now is who do I drop? I have it narrowed down to Evan Longoria, Jay Bruce, Matt Cain, Pedro Martinez, and Rich Harden. Standard 5x5 H2H league (the only exception is that it's LF/CF/RF instead of 3 OF). We get seven keepers for next season. This is my roster as it stands now... C - Victor Martinez 1B - Todd Helton 2B - Rickie Weeks SS - Stephen Drew 3B - Ryan Braun LF - Alfonso Soriano CF - Chris Young RF - Corey Hart UTIL - Evan Longoria SP - Johan Santana SP - Jake Peavy SP - John Smoltz SP - Cole Hamels P - Joe Nathan P - Jonathan Papelbon Bench: Jay Bruce Matt Cain Pedro Martinez Rich Harden

Interesting project. I'll fill out my form in a minute.

While Felix Pie has really crushed the ball in the major leagues, right? So I guess it's safe to assume he'll be horrible, too? As I said in another post, when the Chicago Cubs start playing the Omaha Royals - let me know. Cedeno raked in the minor leagues - why isn't he starting in front of Theriot? His minor league stats suggest he should... your post makes my brain hurt The arrogance by many on this board makes mine hurt. Pie and Cedeno have better minor league numbers - therefore it will just automatically translate to success at the major league despite what their past performances have shown us. I know so because numbers support my claim - despite what the actual play on the field suggests. Pay no attention to that.... Arrogance? There was nothing about your post that made sense. Pie and Cedeno have put up really, really good numbers in the minor leagues, and Pie was usually very young for his level. Ryan Theriot never put up really, really good numbers and was often very old for his level. Ryan Theriot has done nothing in the major leagues to have an everyday job handed to him, while guys like Pie and Cedeno have proven, based on their minor league numbers, that they deserve a shot. What I said was just because Pie and Cedeno did well in the minor leagues it doesn't always equate to success at the major league level. How hard was that to understand? Many here want to see Cedeno start in front of Theriot based on potential and minor league performance while forgetting the fact Cedeno failed miserably when given the opportunity at the major league level. Theriot was not good, true, but he was/is better then Cedeno. Many are so quick to bash Theriot's defense, his lack of power, etc. Funny - they're all better than what Cedeno has done in the major leagues...if Theriot sucks that bad how would you describe Cedeno? Yes, I thought it was stupid Hendry didn't make improving shorstop priority #1 in the offseason but Theriot is the best we got. I wish that wasn't the case and we had another viable option but it sure isn't Ronny Cedeno. Did you just wake up one morning and arbitrarily decide that since the minor leagues and the major leagues aren't the exact same thing, that you can't compare them at all? Because we certainly can. Age 21: Cedeno - .279/.328/.401 at AA Theriot - .204/.341/.252 at A+ Age 22: Cedeno - .355/.403/.518 at AAA, .300/.356/.375 at MLB (80 AB) Theriot - .252/.335/.313 at A Age 23: Cedeno - .245/.271/.339 at MLB Theriot - .259/.353/.318 at A, .236/.351/.270 at AA Age 24: Cedeno - .359/.422/.537 at AAA, .203/.231/.392 at MLB (74 AB) Theriot - .273/.367/.342 at A+ Age 25: Cedeno - 2008 Theriot - .304/.365/.391 at AA, .154/.214/.231 at MLB (13 AB) Age 26: Cedeno - 2009 Theriot - .304/.367/.379 at AAA, .328/.412/.522 at MLB Age 27: Cedeno - 2010 Theriot - .266/.326/.346 at MLB At every age in their respective careers, Cedeno has been playing at a higher level than Theriot... and with the exception of his bad year in the majors, Cedeno has been significantly better despite playing at much higher levels. (Though one can reasonably assume that if you were to jump Theriot to the majors at age 23 with his mediocre lines split between A and AA, that he would have performed significantly worse than Cedeno did... yuck). Ryan Theriot seems like a real nice guy. But he's a pretty abysmal ballplayer... We wouldn't stand to lose much if we played Cedeno and he imploded... but we could gain a whole lot if Cedeno played up to even a fraction of his potential. Keeping Theriot in there as the starting SS is the sort of risk-averse move that is the reason guys baseball has guys like Dusty Baker still in this league... "proven" guys. (Even if they only have proven to be quite bad)

Ridiculous.

While Felix Pie has really crushed the ball in the major leagues, right? So I guess it's safe to assume he'll be horrible, too? As I said in another post, when the Chicago Cubs start playing the Omaha Royals - let me know. Cedeno raked in the minor leagues - why isn't he starting in front of Theriot? His minor league stats suggest he should... SAMPLE SIZE. A couple hundred sporadic at bats in the majors at age 22 doesn't exactly mean a whole lot in projecting a player from that point onward. If you can't properly discount those numbers, you'd actually be better off forgetting it happened at all rather than taking it into account. Oh, and Cedeno should be starting in front of Theriot. Ryan Theriot is the worst hitter on our ballclub (including bench players), and a mediocre defensive SS at his best. Theriot doesn't even have a chance to be anywhere close to decent in full time play... Cedeno might not be a great bet to, but he at least has a chance. And we all know that baseball is all about playing the percentages.

I'm under the impression Lieber signed because he was essentially guaranteed a rotation spot unless he pitched his way out of it. If memory serves, he's had the best spring of all those three guys.

+1 And who knows where salaries will be in 8 years. This could be a bargain in 3-4. Compared to A-Rod, it is a bargain NOW. Compared to Soriano, Cabrera's contract is an absolute steal. Only an extra 17.3 mil spread out over eight years... and instead of getting an aging player who at his best is only very good, you get a player who is already fantastic, and hasn't even hit his prime yet.

I think Demp might've pitched his way out of a rotation spot (unless we can find a taker for Marquis in the next week or two).