Rob

Upon thinking about it some, I would believe that there might be one player in baseball whom if the numbers said they were better in the clutch, I would think it was more than statistical noise. That player is Manny Ramirez. He might be the only player in the entire league that I would buy just coasts through without max effort, but steps it up in big situations (again, providing that the numbers showed it). Everybody else in the league is probably already attempting to do their best everytime up there though.

Ping, you know fielding percentage is a flawed metric. Why are you lowering yourself to using it?

"Clutch" exists. There are large moments in ballgames, and some spectacular things can happen. "Clutch players" are a myth, though. Performing better than normal in clutch situations one year doesn't make you more likely to perform in the clutch next year.

+1 Theriot Soriano Lee Aramis Fukudome DeRosa Soto Pie or Murton Fukudome ARod Lee Aramis DeRosa Soto Pie

That's all I ever wanted. :yahoo: (we need a hug emoticon)

Well in this particular case, it finally occurred to me that I could combine his AAA MLEs with his actual MLB stat line. And after I had done so, I couldn't help but laugh at the fact that he performed almost exactly as well as Theriot in AVG/OBP last year, and obviously beats him badly in SLG... and yet some people still think Theriot is somehow better. I mean, really... Pie - .272/.322 Theriot - .266/.326 That's pretty neat. And I don't recall anybody else trying to combine Pie's disparate performances into one stat line. So of course I feel the need to brag, and to be acknowledged for discovering this little tidbit.

Forgive me if I read too much into your bolding. It seemed somewhat conceited. At any rate, I'd sincerely love to hear why you think you know more than the people who designed the translations. It'd be one thing if you were just saying you're more comfortable that you know what Theriot is capable of. But to argue that he's actually a better hitter is simply letting yourself be so risk-averse as to cloud your judgement. Give Pie the everyday job at the beginning of the season, and it would take a huge collapse to even make them comparable hitters. Maybe a 10-15% chance of that happening? Ryan Theriot simply is not a major-league caliber hitter...

Yeah Theriot is another Neifi except he plays all out and doesn't make stupid boneheaded mistakes. And Theriot scored 80 runs last year. If he batted leadoff all year he would score 110. Thats not worthless. Theriot isn't great by any stretch of the imagination but he has okay. You can't have a Sori or anything close to it at every position. Scoring a lot of runs does not make you a good baseball player. I agree I said that because of what he said in the post I quoted. I bolded it for you. In case you missed it the first time, I'll bold what I have to say. Pretty much everybody gets out at the same rates on flyballs (at least the ones that stay in the park) ... and with very few exceptions (read: Ichiro), most everybody gets out around the same rate on grounders. When you're talking about a guy getting more hits, the only way to do that (besides lots of seeing-eye grounders and broken-bat bloop singles... the kind of hits that how juicy the ball was don't matter on), you're talking about a guy hitting more line drives. If you want anybody to believe that Theriot will get more hits because of the lineup protection, you have to prove that lineup protection has an effect on LD%. If you can't prove it, you don't have much of a case. Pie is a .215 hitter with a .271 OBP right now in limited PA at the big league level. What did he hit at AAA? .362/.410/.563 But since you want to compare players based solely on their MLB numbers, lets go ahead and take a look at his MLEs (courtesy of baseball prospectus). 317/.365/.504 in 250 PA. That line is adjusting his AAA line to the major league level. It is a rather harsh translation, and it is based on years and years of evidence of exactly how much offensive value players lose when making the transition. This translation, while not beyond refute, is beyond your ability to argue. What this translation allows us to do is reverse engineer how many hits and walks he had based on his PA and AB, then we combine that with his bad showing in limited playing time at the major league level to get a composite line of last season, and we have a player who hit .272/.322 (BA and OBP) last season, had he been playing in the majors from Day 1. Raw doubles/triples/home runs totals are harder to pull from his MLE's, so we wont even attempt to. But each and every single person knows exactly how punchless Theriot is, while observing that Pie actually has decent pop. So we have the choice of a player who hit .262/.326 last season (with no power), or one who hit .272/.322 (with good power). Hopefully that finally ends the Pie/Theriot debate as to whom the better hitter is. It isn't even a contest. As to the rest of your post... 1.) I have never suggested Pie belongs in the leadoff spot... just that Theriot belongs as far away from it as possible. 2.) Speed is a secondary skill, not a primary one. It will never make your eighth best hitter suited to get the most plate appearances. If there's a huge discrepancy, it might be enough to get him the seventh most plate appearances. But don't allow yourself to get pigeonholed into the idea of the speedy leadoff hitter. It's a myth, and it doesn't help ballclubs. Don't mock others for their reading comprehension when you're just cherry picking arguments.

Wow, he is a terrible GM. He's making bad decisions for the wrong team. What a clown. The reference is just about him being the one to trade Liriano, along with Joe Nathan and Boof Bonser for AJ Pierzynski... of all people. It was topical, but not particularly well executed.

I saw that dodge-job coming. Excellent, irrefutable argument... I don't know why I expected a reply.

Yeah Theriot is another Neifi except he plays all out and doesn't make stupid boneheaded mistakes. And Theriot scored 80 runs last year. If he batted leadoff all year he would score 110. Thats not worthless. Theriot isn't great by any stretch of the imagination but he has okay. You can't have a Sori or anything close to it at every position. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! What would you put an "OK" player in the slot that sees the most AB's? "Plays all out" means zilch. And please explain how Theriot is "mistake-free" and Neifi was making them left and right in such stark contrast? THEY'RE BOTH AWFUL BASEBALL PLAYERS WHO SHOULD NOT START. Please don't give him an excuse to argue with you and ignore my post. I think I'd really like to see his response to it.

Pretty much everybody gets out at the same rates on flyballs (at least the ones that stay in the park) ... and with very few exceptions (read: Ichiro), most everybody gets out around the same rate on grounders. When you're talking about a guy getting more hits, the only way to do that (besides lots of seeing-eye grounders and broken-bat bloop singles... the kind of hits that how juicy the ball was don't matter on), you're talking about a guy hitting more line drives. If you want anybody to believe that Theriot will get more hits because of the lineup protection, you have to prove that lineup protection has an effect on LD%. If you can't prove it, you don't have much of a case. Pie is a .215 hitter with a .271 OBP right now in limited PA at the big league level. What did he hit at AAA? .362/.410/.563 But since you want to compare players based solely on their MLB numbers, lets go ahead and take a look at his MLEs (courtesy of baseball prospectus). 317/.365/.504 in 250 PA. That line is adjusting his AAA line to the major league level. It is a rather harsh translation, and it is based on years and years of evidence of exactly how much offensive value players lose when making the transition. This translation, while not beyond refute, is beyond your ability to argue. What this translation allows us to do is reverse engineer how many hits and walks he had based on his PA and AB, then we combine that with his bad showing in limited playing time at the major league level to get a composite line of last season, and we have a player who hit .272/.322 (BA and OBP) last season, had he been playing in the majors from Day 1. Raw doubles/triples/home runs totals are harder to pull from his MLE's, so we wont even attempt to. But each and every single person knows exactly how punchless Theriot is, while observing that Pie actually has decent pop. So we have the choice of a player who hit .262/.326 last season (with no power), or one who hit .272/.322 (with good power). Hopefully that finally ends the Pie/Theriot debate as to whom the better hitter is. It isn't even a contest. As to the rest of your post... 1.) I have never suggested Pie belongs in the leadoff spot... just that Theriot belongs as far away from it as possible. 2.) Speed is a secondary skill, not a primary one. It will never make your eighth best hitter suited to get the most plate appearances. If there's a huge discrepancy, it might be enough to get him the seventh most plate appearances. But don't allow yourself to get pigeonholed into the idea of the speedy leadoff hitter. It's a myth, and it doesn't help ballclubs.

Well, he really isn't as quick... but that's irrelevant to the discussion. Theriot's arm is so weak that he's playing in a few steps to give himself more time to make the throw. Unfortunately, that severely limits his range. Cedeno gets to a lot more balls. I'm not arguing that he doesn't make more mistakes on the ones he gets to, but I am saying that he gets to enough extra balls that he covers the difference. Only if you're so stubborn as to discount MiLB numbers far more than necessary. But if that's already the case, I wont bother pointing out exactly how disparate their offensive talents are. Suffice to say, Theriot is an abysmal hitter and Pie is not. I said RBI's mean almost nothing. And I meant that in the individual context. Obviously I'd like the team to have as many as possible... it'd be a pretty positive sign. Oh, I would much rather have Soriano trying to bat Theriot in. But I'm a believer in the "2nd leadoff hitter" philosophy that would have Theriot batting 9th, behind the pitcher. Again, there's no excuse to give Theriot more at bats than absolutely necessary. He's hurting the team far more often than anybody else when he steps into that batters box. So your argument is that Theriot is going to hit more line drives with better hitters behind him? Do you have anything besides anecdotal proof that lineup protection has anything to do with line drive percentage?

Your eyes deceive you. Those "easy" plays that Cedeno is botching? Theriot isn't even able to get to a lot of those balls on his best days. It isn't really fair to ding Cedeno for a play that Theriot wouldn't have made either. 1.) Theriot is the worst hitter on this team. Leadoff hitters get the most PA of any person on the team. Logically, there is no conceivable way that you can defend Theriot batting leadoff. None. The worst hitter on the team should not be the one we send to the plate most often, not in any circumstance. 2.) RBI's mean almost nothing. 3.) Wouldn't Theriot getting better pitches to hit be a bad thing? He doesn't have enough power to do any real damage with them... and if the pitchers are making sure not to walk Theriot, his offensive value is lower than Cedeno's floor.

RynoRules already picked him I feel stupid... especially since I searched for him before selecting him.

205. Ryan "Donnie" Garko 206. Ubaldo Jimenez 207. Nate McLouth 208. Jose Guillen 209. Whoever the hell earth2sean picked 210. Jason Isringhausen

Who says you can't walk home?

The blues are better than the grays... but the whites are easily the best. I say we bust out the road powder blues. That way, everybody is happy.

I'd have to seriously consider Lilly for Brandon Wood. Wood might be enough of an upgrade over Theriot to cover the downgrade from Lilly to Lieber in the rotation.

Swisher is my 1B, and Milledge is in the outfield... but it's not a biggie. And yeah, we should definately at least finish out this round. Where the hell is earth2sean?

Goodness gracious...

Cedeno really needs to be starting.

Technically, yes.

Theriot has abysmal range. His arm is so poor that he's playing in a few steps, which severely hampers his ability to get to anything. He's solid on what comes right at him... but he wont get to anything else.

I demand that he come out to "Feel Good Inc." by the Gorillaz. That opening laugh track could be freaky.