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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Rob
    For what it's worth, the one season Juan Pierre did spend in Chicago, he was a pretty good defender.
  2. Rob
    He's a solid defender, and he does have game changing speed. As long as he never bats, I'm not too upset with the signing. I do wonder what this means for Pie, though. If this is a ML contract, Pie is definitely on the move.
  3. Rob
    Well, then I guess I'll go with Morneau cause he's lucky then. In 940 career PA (just so you don't argue sample size), Morneau has had 2.5 PA per RBI with RISP. Dunn in 1322 PA has 3.4 PA per RBI with RISP. You call it luck, I call it Morneau putting more of an emphasis on putting the ball in play to try and score a runner. Either way, I still say that it's a reason why Morneau is a better hitter. For their careers, Morneau gets on base at a .394 clip with RISP. Dunn gets on at a .416 clip. We could just as easily say that Dunn is significantly better a hitter because he keeps the rally going more often than Morneau. Of course, all of the arguments I've seen in this thread are asinine. Dunn is a good ballplayer, but I wouldn't want Hendry to sign him for the money he's going to get... then again, I'm assuming Felix Pie can hit at a league average clip for us, so take my opinion for what its worth.
  4. Rob
    Why on earth are you bolding this? I covered it a while back.
  5. Rob
    I actually agree with the O's decision to go after Teixeira. They've got some quality arms in the system coming up in the next few years, or already there and just trying to get the kinks worked out. Matsuz, Arrieta, Hernandez, Erbe, Spoone, Olson, Liz, Penn, Patton, and a handful of others... in 2-3 years, I don't see them having much trouble putting together at least an average rotation for dirt cheap. Their problem is that they are old and washed up on the field right now, and their retreads like Huff and Mora wont be able to perform decently when the pitching is finally ready. But Teixeira, Wieters, Markakis, and Jones might make for a very solid core when that pitching is finally ready.
  6. Rob
    Expounding a bit on what I said earlier, I went ahead and adjusted his line to fit more smoothly with "neutral luck"... just knocking his BABIP up or down to whatever it took to achieve LD% + .120. And I did it for the last five years. Raw: 2004 - .267/.362/.424 2005 - .290/.350/.484 2006 - .276/.370/.447 2007 - .306/.402/.545 2008 - .321/.436/.563 Adjusted: 2004 - .261/.357/.417 2005 - .321/.379/.522 2006 - .253/.350/.419 2007 - .291/.389/.528 2008 - .307/.424/.544 He's been just a little bit lucky the last two seasons, was somewhat lucky the year before that, was even more unlucky the year before that, and was pretty much spot on the season before. But obviously, luck hasn't played enough of a role to really affect his projections much... we aren't exactly dealing with 2007 BJ Upton here. No, the reason his seasons are sometimes great, and sometimes average is that his LD% fluctuates around much more than your average player. And that isn't terribly hard to explain given Bradley's injury history. If he's healthy, he's going to produce. Questioning his bat is asinine... as is questioning his defense (which is slightly above average). The problem is simply going to be keeping him healthy.
  7. Rob
    Even if you adjust Milton Bradley's line down to your basic LD% +.120 (which is a good rule of thumb), it hardly makes a difference to his line. He only got lucky to the tune of six extra hits last year. You're looking .307/.424/.544 line instead of his .321/.436/.563 line. Whoa, he sucks.
  8. Rob
    And compared to the Big Unit, Z fields like Maddux in his prime.
  9. Rob
    I was only assuming he'd get a slightly higher salary if he was offered a rotation spot. Sorry to be so ambiguous.
  10. Rob
    You must be looking way down the road. He's only 25, so we're looking at a good 7-8 years before he can start being productive. He was a good pitcher as of 2006', while the knuckle ball might not flutter as much in the PCL, giving him a shot at Iowa for a chance to get to the majors is likely a better than most of what we'll see in iowa's rotation this year. I've always thought haeger has a shot as a btm of the rotation starter. Never sign a knuckleballer under 30. I can't even think of one that was decent at that age.
  11. Rob
    2 plus pitches, no command, will collaspe easily. I love his arm. That's the name that jumped out at me. Think he could find improved control pitching one inning at a time? It's certainly possible, but some pitching coach on some rebuilding team has fallen in love with Cabrera's arm, and is convincing his GM to spending starter money on him. If that team was out there, then they would've traded a minor somethingorother to the O's so as to lock in an arb price and not to have to compete with the other 29 teams. That's only true if you assume his arb price is lower than he'll get on the open market... which it might not be in this case.
  12. Rob
    Cards just non-tendered Tony LaRussa's lovechild, Aaron Miles. I'm sure they'll probably bring him back, though.
  13. Rob
    You must be looking way down the road. He's only 25, so we're looking at a good 7-8 years before he can start being productive.
  14. Rob
    2 plus pitches, no command, will collaspe easily. I love his arm. That's the name that jumped out at me. Think he could find improved control pitching one inning at a time? It's certainly possible, but some pitching coach on some rebuilding team has fallen in love with Cabrera's arm, and is convincing his GM to spending starter money on him.
  15. Rob
    That's more than fair, considering this is his final arby year and his numbers last year.
  16. Rob
    Interested in any of these guys? Reggie Abercrombie Mario Alvarez John Bale Denny Bautista Matt Belisle Angel Berroa Yhency Brazoban Chris Britton Ambiorix Burgos Chris Burke Jamie Burke Daniel Cabrera Chris Capuano Kevin Cash Justin Christian Lance Cormier Jairo Cuevas Randy Flores Joey Gathright Jonny Gomes Charlie Haeger Robby Hammock Clay Hensley Jonathan Herrera Norris Hopper Chuck James Tyler Johnson Wilfredo Ledezma Aquilino Lopez Gary Majewski Scott Mathieson Doug Mathis Aaron Miles Joe Nelson Scott Proctor Tim Redding Argenis Reyes Takashi Saito Jeff Salazar Jason Smith Willy Taveras Ty Wigginton I'll try to update as I see more...
  17. Rob
    Carl Pavano was an average pitcher coming off a career year. Ryan Dempster has Carl Pavano part 2 written all over him.
  18. Rob
    The when healthy part. I don't know if a team can even get insurance on a guy like Sheets. I'm all for going after Lowe. A ground ball pitcher in Wrigley makes me tingle. Teams can't get big contracts insured since Mo Vaughn.
  19. Rob
    Praise Jeebus!
  20. Rob
    Not surprising. I'm more worried about them doing something stupid with Cedeno or Wuertz.
  21. Rob
    The Reds feel they owe us for Josh Hamilton...... Does he have to stick all year ? Yes he does or we need to offer him back. Judging by his minor league stats, I dont see him sticking around for any length of time. Apparently, there's been a significant improvement to his stuff since he switched to the pen. He might be worth taking the flyer on... though I would have preferred just rostering Veal.
  22. Rob
    I've been on enough of a defensive kick that I'm willing to say if we can't get Bradley or Hermida, I'd rather have Pie in the OF than Abreu, Dunn, Ibanez, or any of the other bats out there right now.
  23. Rob
    Ok, if the rumors are true, and Towers was asking for six or seven players... DeRosa, Marshall, Vitters, Pie, Cedeno, Hart and Guzman have all been repeatedly connected to this deal. If that's actually the deal, I'm inclined to think Hendry did the right thing by stepping away.
  24. Rob
    And I was just congratulating everybody on avoiding mass hysterics... way to blow that one.
  25. Rob
    Wow, I'm truly impressed. I predicted mass hysteria... but once everybody saw Deuce really go crazy, they just started mocking him. Good work today, NSBB.
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