Rob

OMC, have you picked up Rob Neyer's Big Book of Baseball Legends yet? It seems the sort of thing that's right up your alley.

The only thing he did that had me really roll my eyes was the Soriano quip. I still don't get why people think he's a terrible defender at a position manned by the likes of Adam Dunn, Manny Ramirez, Raul Ibanez, and Pat Burrell.

Mine is pretty vanilla. Just the nine loudest idiots.

Yeah. It's in your user control panel. You want to set him as a "foe." Most everybody else already has. I agree that in no way should we be looking at Dunn, Abreu, or Ibanez... but I'd avoid Winn as well. I'd be just fine going into next season with Pie in CF and Fukudome in RF... with a healthy dose of Reed Johnson for either when there's a lefty on the mound.

Just to pick a fight... park-adjustments aren't specific enough to be of great use when you've got players on the extremes in flyball or groundball tendencies. It doesn't matter much if Juan Pierre is playing in Coors or Petco... but it sure as hell makes a difference for a guy like Khalil Greene. That's a broad generalization of what park factors are and how they work. Specific park factors - like the BB-Ref park factors - sure, you can say that. But we have component park factors and batted ball park factors available to us if we want them. I was under the impression EqA is calculated with broad park factors, and no regard to specific BB data.

I'm not Kyle, but I disagree with that statement as worded. I really wish people would learn the word "dominant." Life would be so much easier...

Just to pick a fight... park-adjustments aren't specific enough to be of great use when you've got players on the extremes in flyball or groundball tendencies. It doesn't matter much if Juan Pierre is playing in Coors or Petco... but it sure as hell makes a difference for a guy like Khalil Greene.

Why do people keep trying to have conversations with Kyle? He has an irrational need to disagree with all things sane.

Gaudin wont be non-tendered... I'd guess Wuertz probably will be, though.

I understand that PETCO is where fly balls go to die, but the dude's road stats were .212/.225/.317 last year. He sucked ass everywhere he went last year. Is a change of scenery going to have that much more of an effect? Maybe he won't have a VORP in the negative digits. Horray for him. Meh. 200 PA on the road is just 200 PA on the road. In 159 PA in 2006, Ryan Theriot hit .328/.412/.522. How much stock should we put in that? Is Ryan Theriot the best offensive SS in the NL?

I think he had what would just be a bad year most of the time, coupled with PetCo and playing on a god awful team. Or maybe Greene just lost it and is going to suck now. Thats why people who predict guys stats year after year are usually wrong. Greene could bounce back and it could be a great trade for the Cardinals, but If Greene hits 230 with a 650-680 OPS at 6.5m it's an awful trade. We will just have to wait and see what happens. I'd love to see your studies on how wrong they are. I'm sure they're fascinating. I don't need to have studies, it's common sense that alot guys predicted stats don't happen. Maybe saying usually wrong was the wrong word, but their wrong alot. There's too much of a human factor to predict every player stats. Guys have good or bad years, some guys improve, some guys decline or get hurt, some guys have career years and some guys just lose it. Greene drop off this season is just one example. Another one off the top of my head would be who would have thought Nick Swisher would have a worse season in 2008, then he did in 2007 even though he was playing at US Cellular Field. Or even Rich Hill losing it or Ryan Dempster being awesome. So when I see somebody say my stats say the Cubs will win 88 games next year, in December I find it more funny then interesting. So... because there are no certainties, you don't see how projections add any predicative value?

As a Cubs fan after last year, you should have a greater understanding for just how bad an extreme flyball hitter can look in petco... and how much better they can be getting out of that mess.

Not saying it is much... but it makes his line look even worse for the guys just taking a quick glance at it. Give him his expected .09+LD% hits? His line jumps up to .243/.288/.377... not great, certainly... but a good glove and that bat wont kill you. Then toss in some room for improved health, and I don't have a problem taking a risk on that player... especially considering we don't stand to lose much even if Ryan Theriot plays at his peak.

It's not that hard to explain. LD% - 20.6 BABIP - .255 That doesn't explain the power outage. The LD% is actually the second highest of his career. He's never been a high BABIP guy, though a large chunk of that may be due to PETCO and his flyball tendencies. Though even in a normal park he won't be anything but an average at best BABIP hitter. Yeah, his HR/FB tanked, but that BABIP is low, even for him. It's probably a combination of factors... bad luck, nagging injuries, and pressing a bit much because his stat line already looked so poor. The BABIP is low because his HR/FB tanked. Basically take out the few homers he didn't get and you have the entire drop in his BABIP. This would be because flyballs that are homers that all of a sudden don't reach the stands are usually called outs. So basically take the change in HR/FB and count all the HRs he didnt get as outs, and we've got his entire decrease in BABIP. As for the cause in lower HRs. Who knows. Injuries, luck, I don't know. Still none of this explains how a guy who had an OPS over .840 on the road in 3 of the 4 previous seasons (his entire career) and 770something the other year has his OPS drop below 600 on the road. He's shy about 4-5 HR if you consider him around an 11% HR/FB guy. And even if you say he's a lower BABIP guy anyways, (and he is) he averages around .090+ LD%... which he came up 12 hits shy of. The HR/FB tanking only really accounts for half the missing hits. There's still some bad luck involved too.

It's not that hard to explain. LD% - 20.6 BABIP - .255 That doesn't explain the power outage. The LD% is actually the second highest of his career. He's never been a high BABIP guy, though a large chunk of that may be due to PETCO and his flyball tendencies. Though even in a normal park he won't be anything but an average at best BABIP hitter. Yeah, his HR/FB tanked, but that BABIP is low, even for him. It's probably a combination of factors... bad luck, nagging injuries, and pressing a bit much because his stat line already looked so poor.

I think he had what would just be a bad year most of the time, coupled with PetCo and playing on a god awful team. Or maybe Greene just lost it and is going to suck now. Thats why people who predict guys stats year after year are usually wrong. Greene could bounce back and it could be a great trade for the Cardinals, but If Greene hits 230 with a 650-680 OPS at 6.5m it's an awful trade. We will just have to wait and see what happens. I'd love to see your studies on how wrong they are. I'm sure they're fascinating.

It's not that hard to explain. LD% - 20.6 BABIP - .255

It's not. I just like watching a stats guy defend someone with a negative VORP that is being paid 5 million+ It's not that hard. Everything that made him a good risk before this season is still there... it's just somewhat less likely to manifest after last year.

I kinda like Stephen Drew for next year.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't a 280/350/330 line put him somewhere pretty close to replacement level? For a SS? That seems high.

Keep trying to console yourself. It's not going to change the fact that he's probably going to be the best shortstop in the division immediately, if not the entire league. Now that's probably an overstatement. Busch 3 isn't the death sentence for extreme flyball hitters that petco is, but it doesn't seem that far behind.

And lets remember, MVPs, All Stars, Gold Gloves... all these "honors" mean jack squat, as rarely as the writers and fans get stuff right.

Lee is not going to waive his NT to a team that might contend... If he moves, it'll be to a team that's certainly contending next season. I'm just as likely to play 1B for the Giants next season as he is.

Raines has 63 points of OBP on Dawson. Dawson has 57 points of slugging on Raines. But since we know OBP > SLUG, that works out easily in Raines' favor. Add in that he stole an extra 497 bases while only getting caught an additional 37 times... Yeah, Dawson probably has a defensive edge early in his career, but his knees were so shot at the end of his career his overall defensive value was right around league average... same as Raines.

The extra 750 walks probably has something to do with it.