Rob

Everybody hates NSBB. We're pretty full of ourselves.

Nope. Check it out for yourself... you'll have to cut and paste this link. http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=pitching&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=der&direction=DESC&qual_filter=ignore&season_filter[]=2008&league_filter[]=2&team_filter[]=FLA&Submit=Submit I'm confused again. That site says that Florida, with 116 throwing and fielding errors, was second only to Washington in committing the most errors in the NL. How does that help the argument that Gregg was the recipient of a good defense? For the record, errors don't mean jack squat. What I had that link set up to display was defensive efficiency... which is a measure of how often the defense turns a ball in play into an out... which is what we're looking for... not whether they committed "errors". And what you're seeing is that Gregg benefited disproportionately from his defensive unit (which BP has ranked just a tick above the middle of the pack... 13th overall). They turned 75.3% of the balls in play into outs with him on the mound, but only about 69.3% on the average. So that's it then, the DER is what matters? I see he also has a similar DER in 2007. Amazingly, they just field better for him. The pitcher has nothing to do with this? Are Harden (.790 DER) and Marmol (.831) just lucky too because the defense seems to play better for them? Or does how they pitch have something to do with what kind of balls are put in play? I find it odd that Gregg, Pinto, Volsted, Olson, Nelson, and Nolasco, all pitchers with decent DER numbers (and coincidently better LD% than the rest of the staff) were simply the beneficiaries of a good defense playing over its head just for them. I completely disagree that one sole stat like DER is the tell all about a pitchers performance if three stats like BAA, OBP and SLG are just random as I've been told. And in 2004 Gregg ranked 11th out of 16 Angels pitchers. And in 2005 Gregg ranked 15th out of 18 Angels pitchers. And in 2006 Gregg ranked 15th out of 18 Angels pitchers. You say Gregg has just figured it out. I say his defense is doing him some favors the last couple years. I'm not calling DER the one telling stat for pitchers. It's telling of team defense, and that's about it. His strikeout rate, walk rate, groundball tendencies, and other peripherals are much more important (read: stable) than junk like hit rate (which is why BAA, OBA, and SLG are less useful). DER was simply a tool to help prove that there's a whole bunch of sway in hit rate (without resorting to arbitrary scoring decisions like calling errors).

Yeah, but we also got Bo Flowers along with Novoa. And Scott Moore.

Nope. Check it out for yourself... you'll have to cut and paste this link. http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=pitching&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=der&direction=DESC&qual_filter=ignore&season_filter[]=2008&league_filter[]=2&team_filter[]=FLA&Submit=Submit I'm confused again. That site says that Florida, with 116 throwing and fielding errors, was second only to Washington in committing the most errors in the NL. How does that help the argument that Gregg was the recipient of a good defense? For the record, errors don't mean jack squat. What I had that link set up to display was defensive efficiency... which is a measure of how often the defense turns a ball in play into an out... which is what we're looking for... not whether they committed "errors". And what you're seeing is that Gregg benefited disproportionately from his defensive unit (which BP has ranked just a tick above the middle of the pack... 13th overall). They turned 75.3% of the balls in play into outs with him on the mound, but only about 69.3% on the average.

Nope. Check it out for yourself... you'll have to cut and paste this link. http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=pitching&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=der&direction=DESC&qual_filter=ignore&season_filter[]=2008&league_filter[]=2&team_filter[]=FLA&Submit=Submit

Relievers don't have all that much control over their triple slash stats. Look at Brad Lidge... his peripherals stayed pretty constant, but luck has made his numbers jump all over the place. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=lidge So, even indicators like K/BB rate and GB % aren't good enough because in the Lidge example you posted, his K/BB ratio and GB % has been about the same over the last 4 years yet his SLGA has been .323, .408, .409, and .269? Conversely, when Gregg's GB% and K/BB ratio were better, he posted much worse slash splits. Is it fair to say that we really don't know what will happen and can only go by what has happened? No, not really. You're attempting to give Gregg triple credit because the Marlins defense has performed extremely well behind him the last couple years... something which he had no control over.

Relievers don't have all that much control over their triple slash stats. Look at Brad Lidge... his peripherals stayed pretty constant, but luck has made his numbers jump all over the place. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=lidge

Urge to kill... rising...

Fair enough.

I didn't think GB rate took that many innings to stabilize, generally.

I'd feel a more comfortable if I could figure out whether Gregg is a groundball guy or a flyball guy, but his tendencies jump all over the place. GB% 2004 - 42.5% 2005 - 48.0% 2006 - 35.7% 2007 - 29.0% 2008 - 44.8%

Kevin Gregg nets us draft picks if he closes for us and closes well. Carlos Marmol can be more effective for us if he isn't closing. That's as far as I need to think about it.

I'd imagine he splits the difference pretty well. The numbers last year looked kinda flukey, but he did lose a tick off his fastball and his slider isn't good enough to cover that up. FLUKEY?!? Every other ball he threw ended up on waveland. Exactly. Pitched Ball Data FB 2006 - 82.8% (92.8 mph) 2007 - 86.2% (92.3 mph) 2008 - 74.8% (91.2 mph) SL 2006 - 14.7% (84.2 mph) 2007 - 9.7% (84.4 mph) 2008 - 23.1% (83.3 mph) Batted Ball Data K/9 2006 - 8.8 2007 - 8.3 2008 - 7.4 BB/9 2006 - 2.1 2007 - 2.2 2008 - 1.6 LD% 2006 - 18.0% 2007 - 19.7% 2008 - 17.9% GB% 2006 - 37.8% 2007 - 32.4% 2008 - 34.9% IF/F 2006 - 13.5% 2007 - 14.0% 2008 - 11.7% HR/F 2006 - 9.1% 2007 - 8.0% 2008 - 12.3% DER 2006 - .712 2007 - .711 2008 - .656 Here's the conclusions we can draw pretty safely. 1.) He lost a tick off his fastball, and that probably accounts for the slightly reduced strikeout rate. 2.) The defense behind him fielded 8% fewer of the balls put in play behind him than they usually did. 3.) He threw the slider way more than he had in the past. There's not really anything to account for that dramatic difference in his HF/F numbers though. You're pretty likely to see a regression there. Maybe not all the way, but it wont stay that high as long as the rest of his numbers are pretty stable.

Also important to note... Gregg needs to be our closer to potentially net us 2 draft picks. Sure he may still qualify as a Type A if he doesn't close, but no other team will be willing to sign a non-closing reliever that will cost them a first or second round draft pick.

They're non-tendering Wuertz.

That doesn't sound like Jim Hendry at all.

We just traded one of our top prospects for somebody who's no better or worse than Michael Wuertz.

He's a minor league free agent as of Nov. 6th, along with the rest of this crew. Chicago Cubs (15) RHP: Mike Burns (AAA), Hector Carrasco (AAA), Adam Harben (AAA), Billy Petrick (AAA) LHP: Carmen Pignatiello (AAA), Jason Stanford (AAA) 1B: Matt Craig (AAA) 2B: Robinson Chirinos (Hi A), Bobby Scales (AAA) SS: Andres Blanco (AAA), Luis Figueroa (AAA) OF: Doug Deeds (AA), Jason Dubois (AAA), Josh Kroeger (AAA), Andres Torres (AAA) The only ones I'm likely to miss at all are Petrick, Pignatiello, Craig, and Kroeger... though I might miss Harben and Dubois just because I had such high hopes for them.

:confused:

You're a brave, brave man sticking your neck out on the line like this, Raisin.

So now that Raisin is vouching for Donnie, we get to blame him if this falls through, right?

I'd imagine he splits the difference pretty well. The numbers last year looked kinda flukey, but he did lose a tick off his fastball and his slider isn't good enough to cover that up.

Am I the source?

I'm just happy he's not a Card.

I'm really sick of seeing this logic(and the usual accompiniment of IT'S BEEN 100 YEARS GO FOR IT ALL NOW) as if there is no limit to the amount of young players you should give up to try for it all in one season. Let's say we give up all of our best tradeable assets for Peavy. Then Soto goes down and we need a stopgap to catch the rest of the way. What are we gonna give up for that rental? James Adduci? Every player in a system has some sort of value attached to them. Every time one is given up there is an opportunity cost at stake as to what else that player could acquire now, what they could acquire later, what they could contribute now, and what they could contribute later. Throwing the kitchen sink at a team because we've got a chance at it all is a good way to guarantee that you have only a few chances to win it all. - Pie is obviously no longer apart of this team's future plans. - Hill is obviously no longer the pitcher he once was and has already been rumored to be used in this potential deal - Marshall would be replaced with Peavy, advantage Cubs - Cedeno is battling it out with Theriot, and in all likelihood will probably be a bench player next year if Theriot is around - Ceda would be a useful piece for the Cubs in the future, but would his loss outweigh the gain of Peavy? - If Theriot goes, Cedeno probably stays and hopefully he doesn't crap it up like the last time he was given the starting job - Vitters, I would like to keep, but when will he be ready? 3 years from now? 4 years? It's still very early to determine whether or not he'll be a bust or a great signing. You're not understanding. Just because those guys mught not fit into the team's plans doesn't mean they don't have value. You only have so many pieces top use for trades and you want to blow them all. The idea is that trading some players now allows us to let Dempster and Wood walk. If they walk, we get 4 top picks and our farm system might not be any worse for the wear...