yes there are probabilities, but that just tells you what you would expect to happen if that exact scenario happened 100 times, it does not tell you what would happen this time. stat heads would NEVER have brought up Gibson v. Eck in game 1 or Perez to hit a grand slam or Lee to have the year he did or Patterson to have the year he did etc. Stats are a tool but some of you use it like an end all be all, this isn't a computer program, there are too many human variables to use it that way. no, it doesn't tell you what will happen "this time." it tells you the likelihood that something will happen. a gut feeling doesn't tell you what will happen either (dusty's style of managing). no method is clairvoyant. no, stat hounds wouldn't have predicted the things you say (the odds were against them, not that they were impossible)...and no one else did either, so your point is... at least in two of those situations someone predicted something good would happen or they wouldn't have been in those situations. I'm not arguing against the use of stats as a tool, but I think in sports the correllation between past and current performance isn't as accurate as many give it credit for. Too many human variables, including variables like how hard a player will try. I do think a player tries harder when the game is on the line, (the reason closers are a hard role to fill), I think players play better for different teams, not just because of what statistical data surrounds them in the lineup but because they are where they want to be. I would submit that gut feeling plays just as large a role as statistics and it should. If not, you could hire a computer program as your next GM and forget the whole human interaction thing...and save yourself some money A computer programmer wouldn't be a good GM. A guy who can read computer generated stats would likely be a better manager than a guy who relies on gut instinct. Dusty Baker time and again last year brought in Remlinger on gut instinct (or just plain stupidity) to face left handers. The computer generated stats says "DON'T DO IT, DUSTY", yet he did it anyway. What happened when he did it? Bad things. In the last 3 years, Remlinger has a .215 BAA against right handers and a .284 BAA against lefties. Lefties have nearly as many hits, XBH's and RBI's as righties do, except in less than 2/3's of the at bats. Looks like poop, smells like poop, it's probably poop. But, Dusty tastes it anyway.