nilodnayr

I must have deja vu. I swear we talked about this like 3 weeks ago.

Man, I'd love to get him without giving up Hill. That would be a nasty rotation 1-4. Left handed heavy, but yes, it would be dominating. My concern is it would be nice to go back and forth. So you'd have to have Z not start the opener. So if this did happen, you'd go LRLRL Bedard Z Lilly Marquis Hill Who's starting in between Hill and Bedard? I hate this "reasoning" that you can't have back to back lefties in the rotation. Yes there are more righties than lefties in any given batting order. Don't you think these guys have been facing these same batting orders their whole careers? In the same way, I see no reason with the obsession of having a lefty in the rotation or a lefty in the batting lineup. 8 best hitters, 5 best pitchers, let em throw and hit with whatever they want as long as they do it well. Little known fact, we had back to back lefties ALL FREAKIN YEAR LONG LAST YEAR. How'd that work out for us?

That's the part of this thread that I don't understand. Prior is free to go wherever he wants. If Houston is the best situation for him, then Houston is the best situation. I doubt it will be, and I doubt he'll go anywhere in the division. If he does though, it will just be be a business decision, just like the Cubs made a business decision in letting him go. IMO Houston is a pretty good destination for him if you look at their rotation. Whenever he wants to come back, they are 100% guaranteed to have a spot for him. There are a few other teams like that (Balt, Wash, Fla off the top of my head), but not a ton. He should be picking a team that doesn't just have 4 sure things and a 5th starter opening because frankly, by the time he comes back theres a decent chance someone has taken that spot. There aren't a lot of teams that go into the year with 3+ NOT-sure things in their rotation.

Absolutely not, that's obvious. Many of the Japanese hitters have lost lots of their HR output after coming over (Kaz, Johjima, Iwamura). If Fukudome has a HR drop comparable to theirs, it's hard to envision him posting the kind of exaggerated superstar numbers (>.400 OBP, >.900 OPS) that BP projects. Whether he slips from 30's to 20 HR or to 7 HR (Iwamura), that will matter a lot. If his Japanese park was less HR-friendly than those of the other Japanese guys, and given that Wrigley is more HR-friendly than Seattle or Tampa or Mets, I'm hoping that Fuku's HR's will not drop quite as sharply. To drop by 10 would be better than dropping by 20+. nilo, I know it's possible and precedented to OBP at .400 without 20 HR's. Mark Grace did it 3 times. But it's very difficult, and few of those who do it K as frequently as Fuku did in Japan. It's possible that Fuku will be one of the few who does, but IMO not very likely. A lot more likely to happen or get close if he gets 20 HR's. To be honest, I'm more in the CHONE camp than the PECOTA camp in terms of my projections. If you use Hideki Matsui's last three season in Japan compared to his first three seasons in MLB, Fukudome's 3 year average triple slash numbers would be 298/354/442. If you use Ichiro, its 298/383/478. Personally, he seems more Matsui than Ichiro to me (not to say hes like Matsui, but that hes doesn't look like a slap hitter). But either way, he appears to be around the 800-850 range, rather than 900 OPS. I also did another translation using BA/IsoD/IsoP to calc triple stat translations and came to a Matsui translation of 298/359/452 and an Ichiro translation of 398/375/455. I know Meph did some quick EQA translations that were much more optimistic and he said hes working on a deeper dive. It'd be interesting to see those, especially if he can include park factors.

Derrek Lee had a 400 OBP and a 913 OPS last year, hitting 22 HRs. Helton had a 434 OBP and a 928 OPS last year, hitting 17 HRs. In 2006 Jeter had a 417 OBP and a 900 OPS, hitting 14 HRs. Carlos Guillen had a 400 OBP and a 920 OPS, hitting 19 HRs. Its definitely within the realm of possibility, there were plenty of other examples as well. The key is doubles. All of the guys above had 39 or more doubles. If you use PECOTA's projections over 650 PAs, Fukudome projects to hit 21 HRs and 42 2bs. To your point about HRs being important though...a fun exercise is to take a look at Lee's 2007 #s. Lets just say that 2 of his 2bs become homers and 2 of his fly outs become homers. His OPS increases 30 points. Coulda, woulda, shoulda.

you are not getting bedard and roberts without trading hill if we're going after the two id try to pry bedard away for some package that does not include rich hill, maybe marmol, pie and some random crap but i dont think that there is any chance that bid will win him. trading hill for bedard straight up is probably a net loss for the team. One creative way to do it would to go out and use some of our spare parts to acquire a player the O's would really need. The Murton/Fox for Teahen was debunked, but there possibly could be something there. Same thing with Marshall for Hamilton (of course the Reds are a competitor). We've been linked to Gerald Laird in the past. Just some ideas to put us over the top. Who knows, in MacPhail's eyes a Pie/Marmol deal might be better than a Votto/Bailey deal.

I like the idea of Cameron, but if you trade Pie, who plays CF for 25 games? I don't think it's likely they put Fukudome there for the start and then move him back. Even with Pie, Marmol, Marshall (which is a decent deal), that's not enough if the Reds are offering Bailey and Hamilton as has been rumored. My impression of the Reds farm system is that it is extremely top heavy (but awesome at the top). Whereas we have quanity over quality, with much of the more intriguing players in the lower levels. What I'm trying to get at is that given the 40 man roster crunch, we might be able to throw in a few non-40 man guys that MacPhail could be very interested in that might put us over the edge in comparison to the Reds. The 40 man roster crunch also makes it more intriguing to go after 1-2 blue chippers rather than settle for 3-4 second rate guys. I agree, but from all reports it appears all the Reds are willing to let go are Bailey and Votto. They have balked at including Bruce or Cueto.

I like the idea of Cameron, but if you trade Pie, who plays CF for 25 games? I don't think it's likely they put Fukudome there for the start and then move him back. Even with Pie, Marmol, Marshall (which is a decent deal), that's not enough if the Reds are offering Bailey and Hamilton as has been rumored. My impression of the Reds farm system is that it is extremely top heavy (but awesome at the top). Whereas we have quanity over quality, with much of the more intriguing players in the lower levels. What I'm trying to get at is that given the 40 man roster crunch, we might be able to throw in a few non-40 man guys that MacPhail could be very interested in that might put us over the edge in comparison to the Reds.

2006 Bedard's opponents OPS 775 (dropped to 744 last year) 2007 Hill's opponents OPS 730 Again, these stats are not OPS against, these are the batters the OPS for the year that they faced.

Lofton would be just fine...AND he wouldn't have to be traded before the deadline to a playoff team because he'll already be playing on a playoff bound team!!!

Who is the 4th? I would think it would take Colvin or Vitters. But hopefully someone like E-Pat. It would take a hell of a lot more than that. And Vitters can't be traded.

Including what they received for Tejada, their 40 man is completely full. Surprisingly, there aren't a ton of guys they can get rid of. Here's what I would guess. Fernando Cabrera Fredy Deza Jim Johnson Jon Leicester Bob McCrory Brandon Fahey Jeff Fiorentino Freddie Bynum Bierd and Aquino were just acquired so I didn't include them, but I guess they could be cut as well. I think their 40 man roster issues are going to take a bigger importance than many think. They are either going to be looking for guys who don't need to be on the 40 man, quality over quantity, or getting rid of some of their waste of space vets like Redman, Payton, Huff, Mora etc.

I wouldn't bat an eye to sending Marmol. And I think we underestimate how much value he might have to Baltimore. A month or so ago there was a fairly extensive interview with MacPhail and he said he was pretty happy with their young starters but was very interested in improving their bullpen. Pie and Marmol could be the center of an enticing package.

There were plenty of GM's lined up to give Wood more money then we offered. Not true.

http://www.baywell.ne.jp/users/drlatham/baseball/yakyu/stadium/dragons.htm

Naw, it was rumored that Roberts would be traded after BOTH Bedard and Tejada.

He would be lost in the shuffle in less than a year in TB. As will Garza. They could have gotten him for less than Delmon.

Even if the Astros didn't go into rebuilding mode like they should have, they absolutely should not have gone with a mortgage the future to win now strategy. AND in going for that strategy they focused on entirely the wrong points to improve. Its really hard to imagine any other team having a worse offseason, even this early into it.

God I hope so.... The Cardinals will have no one worth a squat but Albert, Isringhausen, Ankiel, Wainwright and (if he returns healthy) Carpenter. Reyes? The Cards don't like him because he doesn't fit Duncan's profile of pitchers he works with. He fits Larry's profile pretty well, though. Think they'll take Fontenot and Pagan for him? :wink: Yeah, I know they hate him, he really needs to get out of that organization and he'd bloom. I think he would have been a great target for the Rays.

God I hope so.... The Cardinals will have no one worth a squat but Albert, Isringhausen, Ankiel, Wainwright and (if he returns healthy) Carpenter. Reyes?

Hillman said Gordon is going to bat 7th because it "seems" like it always comed up late in games.

Not gonna get much with that net net of about $5M.

I'm sure the Angels would be pretty darn interested in Teahen. Orioles too. Just two teams we've been linked with. Theres a couple teams out there that would be very interested in a pre-arbi 3b whos put up an 874 OPS season.

Nor starting pitcher nor position player. Really goes to show you how horrible our GM is.

Possibly they are freeing themselves up to make a major move and trade some of their SP depth.