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nilodnayr

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Everything posted by nilodnayr

  1. I think the one thing people are omitting in discussing his injury history is the significance of the fact that it is his shoulder and not his elbow/forearm/bicept. Who comes back from shoulder injuries? Carp briefly did it, but the success rate is quite low. Whether its one injury, many injuries, finally diagnosed and had surgery, whatever...its the shoulder and as far as I know theres no magic shoulder surgery like their is for UCLs.
  2. yeah, like he'd actually give up a run :roll: He has a better chance of only giving up one run than pitching the 450 innings necessary to have a 0.02 ERA. :lol:
  3. Also, I believe Hendry and Towers have a pretty good relationship. He probably wouldn't want to ruin that unless there was going to be some sort of gain, which there obviously will not be if he files the charges.
  4. Hey, hes no Brian Roberts!
  5. I'd say that's more laziness, though. If fans buy whatever popular columnists say, what's their incentive to put energy into research? Morals? Pride?
  6. His throwing arm action is horrible. His non-throwing arm needs to come in more towards his body while bringing his glove in earlier and more gradually. Everything else is pretty darn nice, though. baseball789somethingsomething stole O_O's account! :lol:
  7. im so glad that this board is so classy... since we are so classy let me say. **** you AAAAAAAND Yeti's hammered. :lol:
  8. Um, all they needed to do was tender him a contract. They absolutely did not do everything they could. The fact of the matter is the cubs had the final say and they said "good bye". Why in the world would they have tendered him a contract? Especially considering that the best deal he could get on the free agent market was a $1MM guaranteed deal for 1 year. Something in his medical records was scaring other teams away. I wasn't passing judgement on the decision at all. Just contradicting the opinion that the cubs did all they could do with the FACT that they absolutely didn't.
  9. I went with Sabean because not only has he assembled a horrible major league team, his hatred of the draft has caused the entire system to be ridiculously thin. He PURPOSEFULLY gives up draft picks. ON PURPOSE. Although, like TT said, Colletti could dismantle the gem he was handed. That would be pretty impressive and should win him the top spot.
  10. Um, all they needed to do was tender him a contract. They absolutely did not do everything they could. The fact of the matter is the cubs had the final say and they said "good bye".
  11. FYI, they traded Garland for OCab a month ago. That probably registers as doing something a smidge more than signing Ramirez. Maybe he meant something with the potential to be positive. Well, actually, it's been such a forgetable offseason for them because they missed out on most of their targets, so naturally, I forgot they even made that trade. Carter for Quentin too. That was a good trade.
  12. So wrong. You forgot a little group called fans. This was on ChicagoSports.com with the included caption: http://www.chicagotribune.com/media/photo/2007-12/34438903.jpg And that caption is right. I declare fans the winner. We are debating who is dumber? Sportswriters not named Bruce Miles. I win.
  13. No option is clearly what he wanted all along. He wants to be able to come back pitch well, then shop himself on the open market. Not come back, pitch well and be stuck with a below market deal. I agree. I don't think its fair to say that he signed for less than what the cubs were offering him, because in his mind, he didn't. All speculation has the cubs not offering him a one year deal. And as evidenced by them declining to tender him, they weren't interested in a one year deal. There never was a "well if prior will sign for 2M, then the cubs will offer him a 1 year deal" talk. It was always, "the only way the cubs will sign him is if they can add on an option year". At this point, I don't think the cubs are to blame and I don't think Prior is to blame. Certainly a case can be made about burning bridges, name calling, abusing pitcher, etc. But come this offseason, it made sense for the cubs to retain Prior only if they could have an option on him for a second year and it made sense for Prior to have the option of being a FA as soon as possible. It can be debated as to whether or not the 3.5M would have been a good investment to see if Prior could come back in the second half, but at this juncture, the cubs have painted themselves financially into a corner with the contracts Hendry has handed out.
  14. FYI, they traded Garland for OCab a month ago. That probably registers as doing something a smidge more than signing Ramirez.
  15. That's what I'd like to see. Cleveland wants Jason Bay really bad and they haven't made an offer yet that Pittsburgh would be satisfied with. A 3 way deal that sends Bay to Cleveland, Peralta to the Cubs and major league ready players go to Pittsburgh would make a lot of sense, IMO. Cleveland has Cabrera to step in and play SS. Cubs could use a SS. Pittsburgh wants players that will, well, I've never really understood what Pittsburgh wants, so I'll just say a package of players. :D The thing with Cleveland is that they only want to trade prospects and spare parts for Bay (fortunately for them they are so good that their prospects and spare parts can get close to doing it). They DO NOT want to start subtracting from their team. A downgrade from Peralta to Barfield (via Cabrera moving across the bag) is not what they want to do. The only way I could see it happening is if Jack Wilson goes to the Indians to replace Peralta. Shapiro made a ton of noise about Peralta's defense last offseason and would probably be interested in an above average defensive shortstop like Wilson (Chone has him as a 1.5 wins over Peralta on defense). Indians get Wilson, Bay, and Paulino Cubs get Peralta Pirates get Shoppach, Cliff Lee, Franky Gutierrez, Theriot, Patterson, Murton Theres your realistic 10 player trade :D It's okay by me, but as I said before it would be nice if somehow the Cubs could squeeze out Jason Michaels or Damaso Marte in the deal. With Gutierrez going (in the proposal I made), they aren't going to give up Michaels. I'm sure you could convince the Pirates to give up Marte.
  16. I still shake my head at the fact that all we heard about Prior was how good his mechanics were and that he was not very likely to have injury problems because of them. Now he is one of the biggest health risks in the sport. It's just sad for both him and the Cubs. Regardless of mechanics, the overhand throw is the most awkward motion for the human body.
  17. If thats the case and I were Andy, I would tell Angelos "I'm going home, I'll see you after the World Series. You can just mail me my checks. Good luck next year." Seriously, this is the time to start the rebuilding. Teams are more abt to give up more value for 2 years of a player than 1 (obviously). PLUS, with Bedard's injury history, he could get hurt and you could get nothing for him. If the O's don't trade Bedard and Roberts this offseason then it could be the single most detrimental thing Angelos has done to the club (amd that says a lot).
  18. That's what I'd like to see. Cleveland wants Jason Bay really bad and they haven't made an offer yet that Pittsburgh would be satisfied with. A 3 way deal that sends Bay to Cleveland, Peralta to the Cubs and major league ready players go to Pittsburgh would make a lot of sense, IMO. Cleveland has Cabrera to step in and play SS. Cubs could use a SS. Pittsburgh wants players that will, well, I've never really understood what Pittsburgh wants, so I'll just say a package of players. :D The thing with Cleveland is that they only want to trade prospects and spare parts for Bay (fortunately for them they are so good that their prospects and spare parts can get close to doing it). They DO NOT want to start subtracting from their team. A downgrade from Peralta to Barfield (via Cabrera moving across the bag) is not what they want to do. The only way I could see it happening is if Jack Wilson goes to the Indians to replace Peralta. Shapiro made a ton of noise about Peralta's defense last offseason and would probably be interested in an above average defensive shortstop like Wilson (Chone has him as a 1.5 wins over Peralta on defense). Indians get Wilson, Bay, and Paulino Cubs get Peralta Pirates get Shoppach, Cliff Lee, Franky Gutierrez, Theriot, Patterson, Murton Theres your realistic 10 player trade :D
  19. Yes, I'm aware of this and understand it. I'm saying if the increase in balls in play falling for hits is not defense (since it's the same) and it is not being effected by ballpark (previously dismissed or ruled out), then what is it? If it's absolutely unattributable then why is there a clear pattern of it occurring on the road and disappearing at home? Most of them were doubles so it's not weakly hit balls slipping through the infield, it's a legit 55% line drives. According to Retrosheet, 63% of his line drives were on the road (or LD% of 17 at home and 24 on the road). It seems batters are connecting better/harder on the road (even outs) opposed to just getting luckier. So if we say he's the exact same pitcher based on everything else appearing the same then what makes the batted balls different? I don't think we can ignore that he was one of, or the most effective pitcher ("results") in the league at home and one of the worst on the road. I can be convinced of a "cause" that I may conclude is immaterial looking forward but I don't think I've seen any reasoning. LD% of 17% = eBABIP of 290 at home, yet his actual BABIP was 257. I think we are looking at sample size issues, if you look at his career BABIPs hes regressing towards the mean.
  20. Somewhere with alot of good food. Bartolo, deep dish pizza. Deep dish pizza, Bartolo.
  21. 2007 Home BABIP = .257 2007 Road BABIP= .337 2007 Home PA=429 2007 Road PA=521 2007 Home Balls not in play (K+BB+IBB+HBP)=85 2007 Road Balls not in play (K+BB+IBB+HBP)=103 2007 Home Balls in play (PA-Balls not in play)=344 2007 Road Balls in play (PA-Balls not in play)=418 2007 Home Balls in play/PA= 80.2% 2007 Road Balls in play/PA= 80.2% Basically he allowed balls to be put in play at the same rate on the road as he did at home, just so happened that more of them fell for hits. And most of those were doubles. One year (~100 innings each home and away) is a pretty weak sample size to look at, 3 years is better, but not great. You'll see exactly the same thing if you look at his career with the BABIP regressing to the mean (273 home vs 318 road).
  22. What exactly is a natural utility man? http://www.vincekeenan.com/uploaded_images/harrington-725920.jpg Scary that it took you only three minutes to think of this guy, find his picture and post it in this thread. Very scary... That show always creeped me out for some reason. FYI, a Mets outsider I know believes this trade has actually already been completed, and voided by the commissioners office. The only way it can be voided by the commissioners office is if $1M or more are changing hands, correct? Jay Payton, come on down? Upon further read, I'm guessing you are being completely facetious.
  23. Some points... Blanton does not PITCH like Josh Towers away from Oakland, he pitches the same. His RESULTS are like Josh Towers away from Oakland (although thats a bit of a stretch as the first sentence of this thread indicates). There is a big difference between those two statements. Parks do not change!!!! Save for things like moving fences in (Petco) or things of that nature. Winds can change, but I don't know how much that affects McAfee. And I think its been proven to be fairly consisten year to year for even a place like Wrigley. So when you look at park factor year over year and see some wild swings, its not the actual park thats changing. Thats the reason why single year park factors suck to use and even using aggregating a few years isn't the greatest. "Park Factors" don't do a good job of actually measuring park factors. I think you'll always find some instances where a guy whos home park is a pitchers park might pitch better outside or worse outside of home. Park is one of the factors and most likely the biggest factor for players as a whole, but random variation, luck, crowd, hotels/home, etc all can have a different affect on different players. There are always the "but what about this guy" comments for everything.
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