nilodnayr

Conference record would favor the Vikings if both teams win out. Vikings would be 8-4 against the NFC, the Bears only 7-5. Damnit, if I could read, I wouldnt have had to go through all of that.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?page=tiebreakers Ok, so I guess its strength of victory...which unfortunately means as of now its in the Vikings favor. Non-common victories Bears beat Colts (11-4), Eagles (8-6-1), Rams (2-13) Vikings beat Jags (5-10), Cards (8-7), Giants (11-3 so far) So as of this second the bears unique victories have a record of 22-23-1 and the Vikings are 24-20. So, we need the Giants to lose tonight. The Jags will probably lose to Baltimore next week since its at Baltimore and they are fighting for a playoff spot. The Cards will rest their starters so they'll probably lose to the Seahawks. If that happens, then, Jags (5-11), Cards (8-8), Giants (11-5), for 24-24 Our opponents The Colts will probably phone it in, but so will their opponent, the Titans since they've already locked up home field. So who knows whats going to happen there. The Eagles are at home vs Dallas...huge game for both teams, who knows. The Rams play Atlanta, whos already clinched a spot, so they'll phone it in, but the Rams really suck and will still probably lose. Of those 3 games, we'd need 2 of the Colts/Eagles/Rams to win (and the Jags, Cards, and tonight the Giants to lose).

Stay warm!

Ok, if the Bears win out and the Vikings win out then won't they have tied all the tiebreakers? Tiebreaker 1: Head to Head They split, each winning 1 game against each other Tiebreaker 2: Division winning percentage They'd both be 4-2 Tiebreaker 3: Common opponents They've played the same schedule except for the Bears beating Philly and the Rams and the Vikings beating the Cardinals and the Giants (assuming they both win out). ...So then what?

Well a single is worth about .48 runs, double .77 and triple 1.07 (no need to count the value of a HR in a conversion rate discussion). I can't find my copy of The Book, so someone correct me if I'm wrong here. Based on distribution of hits in the NL last year (not sure if we should be using that to weight or not), the weighted average would be about .4866 runs per hit, so about 146 runs saved or so., aka about 15 wins difference between the best and worst defenses. Now what was that about defense not really mattering? :D

yeah for some reason defense is suddenly the new hotness on here It happened about 2 seconds after fangraphs got UZR...thats the reason. Its like when you give a kid a new toy, thats all they want to play with for the next few weeks.

Wait so we're arguing over whether Baldelli is what Pie's ceiling is an (oh my!) its a guess?!?!?!? Well, if you know with absolute certainty what one players ceiling is and/or what another players going to produce in 2009, then you my friend should be working for a major league baseball team. I'm sick and tired of people completely dismissing any projection as a guess. Look, they are all guesses, but some are more educated than others. Just dismissing something because it goes against what you think makes you a very ignorant person. And for the record, all peripherals exceed an r-squared of 0.5 at 300 PAs, so while you might think 350 PAs are a small enough sample that you can completely dismiss it, you shouldn't.

Especially if we have a ridiculous starting pitching staff of Harden, Z, Demp, Lilly, Peavy/Lowe. With our offense, there shouldn't be a ton of high leverage situations for the bullpen.

I thought so, but I went to The Cub Reporter and they said he didn't. Boo them. But you are right, I think the only way we could work an 11 man staff is to have that last guy in the pen rotate with a couple guys from Iowa. So, unless we get rid of one of Wuertz or Gaudin then we still don't have that last spot open.

Well, the whole point is that we wouldn't want a ton of ABs for Gathright. Thats not his value, his value is on the bases and playing defense. Johnson Gathright Hoff Cedeno Font Backup Catcher If thats the case then we'd have to go with an 11 man pitching staff. I said earlier that that shouldn't be a problem, but looking at our BP, I think it might be unless we make some trades. So, assuming Marshall isn't moved to the rotation, Shark goes to the Iowa rotation, and we didn't want to lose anyone (besides Hill), we'd have to have a 7 man pen. But, I have a feeling Wuertz (~$1.2M) or Gaudin ($2M) might be traded. Marmol Gregg Wuertz Cotts Gaudin Marshall--1 option Guzman--No options Stay in the minors Samardzija--2 options Ascanio--1 option Hart--2 options Wells--3 options Hill --No options Petrick--2 options Pignatiello--2 options Between Lou's quotes about the pitching staff and the way the entire league has gone, I can't see the Cubs bucking the trend and going with an 11 man pitching staff. Gathright has to take Hoffpauir's spot to make the squad, and with the fact that we already have at least 2 capable players that could move to the OF in the late innings (Johnson off the bench or DeRosa shifting to RF and Fontenot coming off the bench) I have a hard time seeing how Hoffpauir isn't the better option. I understand the double switching/leading off the next inning argument, but I would say that Fontenot would be the guy to be most often coming into the game in that particular situation. If the Cubs signed Adam Dunn for RF (adding a left-handed slugger that also is more likely to need a defensive replacement) then it makes more sense to choose Gathright over Hoffpauir. I don't see that same appeal if a player like Bradley is signed though. It still doesn't change the fact that Pie will be traded at some point (unless they suddenly decide to go with him as a starter, which would be a shock) but I don't think it would be wise for the Cubs to only have 2 legitimate bats on the entire bench (Fontenot and Johnson). Definitely valid points. I didn't even consider Hoff being sent down, but he has 2 option years. Maybe Lou has a lot of faith in Fontenot to step up and be the main pinch hitter. Afterall, there was that comment about trying to get him more playing time. I agree though, I wouldn't be enamoured by Gathright bumping Hoff off the roster, we'd be gaining some flexibility, while losing other flexibility. I mean after Fontenot, we'd have whoever isn't in the Johnson/Fukudome platoon and the Gathright and Cedeno...fairly slim pickings. Yeah, I think its a foregone conclusion Pie will be traded (or Gathright will be released). Does anyone know if Garrett Olson still has an option left (I believe he does)? I know we talked about acquiring him for Pie in order to get Peavy, but I wouldn't mind getting him and keeping him.

Well, the whole point is that we wouldn't want a ton of ABs for Gathright. Thats not his value, his value is on the bases and playing defense. Johnson Gathright Hoff Cedeno Font Backup Catcher If thats the case then we'd have to go with an 11 man pitching staff. I said earlier that that shouldn't be a problem, but looking at our BP, I think it might be unless we make some trades. So, assuming Marshall isn't moved to the rotation, Shark goes to the Iowa rotation, and we didn't want to lose anyone (besides Hill), we'd have to have a 7 man pen. But, I have a feeling Wuertz (~$1.2M) or Gaudin ($2M) might be traded. Marmol Gregg Wuertz Cotts Gaudin Marshall--1 option Guzman--No options Stay in the minors Samardzija--2 options Ascanio--1 option Hart--2 options Wells--3 options Hill --No options Petrick--2 options Pignatiello--2 options

40 runs is an awful lot, especially when Ibanez doesn't even OPS .900. 10 runs = 1 win? Yep. seems a little odd/arbitrary to me, but whatever. BP has gathright at 84 EqR in 839 PAs the past 3 seasons ibanez is at 311 EqR in 2042 PAs. so if you assume that each guy gets 650 PAs in full playing time, at their current level of production, gathright would produce 65 runs while ibanez produces 99. so 34 runs difference. i guess my figure was a bit high but not off by much, and i don't see how gathright is 3.4 "wins" better than ibanez in the field. Using wOBA, Ibanez projects around .345 for next year(James says .346, Marcel .344). With .328 as league average, that puts him about 10 runs above average. UZR has him around -24 in LF in '07 and -11 in '08. Moving to RF and getting a year older isn't going to help that, but let's say he's -10 to be simple and he's net zero above average. Gathright is a career +19 defender in LF, +13 in CF. We'll split the difference conservatively(since RF is between LF and CF, closer to LF, on the defensive spectrum) and say he's +15 in RF. To put him on par with Ibanez, he needs to be at worst -15 at the plate, which is a .302 wOBA. Marcel has him at .302(.264/.333/.329 slash line) and James .315(.281/.356/.321) next year. This is where I differ from Colin, since I think those projections are optimistic for Gathright, a career .293 wOBA guy who put up an awful .280 last year. I don't think he's quite on par with Ibanez or Abreu on that offense+defense basis, but it's not as far fetched as you might think from looking at them offensively. That said, the extent that you agree with the logic depends on how down you are with UZR. If you think being able to put a number on runs saved is preposterous, then it's not going to carry much weight. If you think UZR has been the leader in defensive metrics to this point, then it should at least give reason for pause, even if you don't ultimately agree. 2 things Yes, Bill James projections are crap. No one should ever use them You should also add in baserunning.

Huh? I understood what he was doing. He threw a bunch of guesswork into his metrics and tried to pass it off as advanced methodology. You can't randomly assign values and weights to formulas and then run the formulas as fact. Except for it was neither guesswork, nor random.

So you eyeballed some metrics that have questionable and still-unproven methodology, threw in a few predictions of what you think might happen and, let's say, a few arbitrary bonuses and ... Voila! Joey Gathright is better than Bobby Abreu, even at the same salary. Stunning that anyone would question this post. Just because you don't understand what hes doing, it doesn't make it wrong.

You showed Abreu and Gathright to be similar players in terms of value, yet would rather pay Gathright at 10M per year more. Does that make any less sense than preferring to pay Abreu 10M more? Especially when you consider their ages? Colin, I'm with you on the numbers, but I don't know where you're pulling your conclusion from. You had Gathright at a 19.5 player, lets add 5 runs for baserunning, making him worth 24.5 You had Abreu at a 18.5 player and lets say his baserunning is neutral. Gathright is making $800K Lets say Abreu makes $12M So you would rather pay $12M for 24.5 runs than $800K for 18.5 runs?

IIRC, that wouldn't even need to be specific to this contract. Wheres MPeel when you need him (or when you dont :cry: ) It's possible that MPeel could mlp posting comments on Bruce's blogs. link Well that sure sounds like him. I thought I remember that if you release a guy by X day you pay him a month of salary, and Y day and you pay him 2 months or somethign along those lines. Its so sad to read Bruce's comments section, its just basically Hoops talking to himself.

IIRC, that wouldn't even need to be specific to this contract. Wheres MPeel when you need him (or when you dont :cry: )

No outside the box thinking allowed. Luke Scott has been talked about quite a bit on this board this offseason.

So, assume major league deal?

nilo, are you using any type of positional adjustment on these? i strongly doubt Gathright's more valuable as a corner OF No, I didn't really do anything positionally. The only statement I made was that Gathright defensively is a 1 win CF and a 2 win corner OF which is a pretty well established translation from CF to corner OF. So, if you want to compare apples to apples (or Gathright to other corner OF options), then use 2 wins on defense for Gathright. Now, with that being said, I'm most definitely not in favor of signing Gathright and calling it a day for RF. What I am saying is that Gathright does have value. He would fit in perfectly if we get Bradley as a pinch running double switch defensive replacement and would give us more flexibility to take advantage of and create highly leveraged situation (with his speed and defense) as well as give rest to injury prone players when the game is in very low leverage situations. Wait a minute here. You just laid out for us a bunch of win stats that indicate Ibanez = -1, Abreu = 0, Dunn = 1, Bradley = unknown, Gathright = 2. And then you followed that up with, "I'm most definitely not in favor of signing Gathright and calling it a day for RF." So do you not believe your own win estimates? The numbers you laid out don't really pass the smell test, and you seem to confirm they're bogus with the followup quote. Holy "the world is black and white" Batman!! Theres a difference between bogus and "take into consideration with other pieces of information". I have continued to say that I'd want Bradley, who clearly when on the field is better than any other option, and it appears as though the Cubs are setting themselves up to have as little as a drop off as possible when Bradley is off the field. I'd much prefer that approach than to get a guy who isn't going to provide positive value (Ibanez), going to provide a bit of positive value (Abreu), or near market value (Dunn).

nilo, are you using any type of positional adjustment on these? i strongly doubt Gathright's more valuable as a corner OF No, I didn't really do anything positionally. The only statement I made was that Gathright defensively is a 1 win CF and a 2 win corner OF which is a pretty well established translation from CF to corner OF. So, if you want to compare apples to apples (or Gathright to other corner OF options), then use 2 wins on defense for Gathright. Now, with that being said, I'm most definitely not in favor of signing Gathright and calling it a day for RF. What I am saying is that Gathright does have value. He would fit in perfectly if we get Bradley as a pinch running double switch defensive replacement and would give us more flexibility to take advantage of and create highly leveraged situation (with his speed and defense) as well as give rest to injury prone players when the game is in very low leverage situations.

Hooray, perhaps this thread will stop being stupid! Now lets go argue about the definition of "linked" and "rumor" in the Gathright thread!

Arguing that Gathright is better than those guys mentioned is a pretty perfect example of how flawed defensive metrics are seriously, it's joey gathright. good lord thats a pretty convincing argument you shouldn't even have to argue something like that. it's like arguing that pujols is better than juan pierre. whats the point yeah, its like arguing the earth is flat, duh hickey

Rotoworld gets it. Even if Gathright would be a decent signing for someone as a back up, we really dont have a use or a spot for him. Considering the last few guys in our bullpen will have options, I would like to see us use an 11 man pitching staff and rotate the pen with Iowa as needed. We could have a bench of whoever isn't playing in the Reed/Fukudome platoon, Hoff, Font, Cedeno, Gathright, backup catcher. (assuming Pie is traded)

Arguing that Gathright is better than those guys mentioned is a pretty perfect example of how flawed defensive metrics are seriously, it's joey gathright. good lord thats a pretty convincing argument