nilodnayr

Many are. UZR has long been held up as the gold standard for defensive metrics, and is just now being made publicly available(although I think the version at fangraphs is a little different than the original, or at least uses a different company for the data). To add on to that (we were having this discussion in the UZR thread, take a look over there).... UZR isn't great. Its probably one of the best ones out there at what it does and vastly superior to zone rating and fielding percentage, etc. However, many players vary significantly from year to year. I don't think this is because the stat is falty. As Meph said, thats because due to sample size theres a ton of random variation into how well (especially an OF) plays defense. Thats why its good to use multiple years of UZR, age adjust and regress to the mean. Heres an example... Ibanez's UZRs 2006-2008 -5.3 -23.9 -11 A simple, 3, 4, 5 weighting gives him a three year weighted average of -13.875. Regress it a bit to the mean and add in an age adjustment (which probably cancel each other out at his age) and I'd be confident saying hes somewhere between -10 and -15 runs in LF (aka -1 to -1.5 wins). Most guys fluctuate around being average, and a nearly 20 point swing from year to year isn't terribly uncommon, but if you look at multiple years and regress and adjust you should get a pretty good idea of what the players true talent is.

He can barely play left. Strictly DH material. Ironically, so is Ibanez. They are quite equal in the defensive deficiencies. Ohh, and Burrell is far superior offensively. I don't know how much Burrell wanted but I think they could have gotten him for a only few more mil, while hes worth about 6-7 more mil than Ibanez.

Not if he keeps OPSing in the 600s. Actually, that's how good he is defensively, he's really out of this world as an outfielder. The Cubs aren't in a great position when it comes to Pie. Kosuke is going to get paid, so he gets first crack at the "disappointing left handed outfield bat that plays great defense" half of a platoon. Pie's not going to develop much as a 5th outfielder and there's no way they give him a starting OF spot, but his trade value isn't much to make it worth dealing him. JMO of course, but here's how I'd rank the output we'd get from some of the options we've heard, assuming a Kosuke/Johnson platoon in CF, and ignoring the contract they'd get. Bradley Winn DeRosa Hermida DeJesus Abreu Dunn Pie Ibanez I'd put about 2 lines between Bradley and Winn, but other than that it looks good.

agreed, plus edmonds' bat is probably going to deteriorate (like it was before it magically got good again). i won't miss watching him play OF; he was just brutally slow and that is one thing that ain't changing. Not that you were saying this, but to clarify, I wasn't trying to compare '09 Fukudome to '09 Edmonds. I was trying to see how '09 Fukudome would replace '08 Edmonds in the CF platoon. And Wade, you should take that to mean that Fukudome in CF will likely be no difference from Edmonds was last year, on an offense+defense basis. Bradley throughout his career has been an above average defensively(a conservative estimate using UZR is +5-7 runs over a full season in RF), and as we all know he kills the ball(career .359 wOBA, .397 last 3 years, .385 projected for '09). meaning bradley is a 3.5 win guy (big health assumption) ibanez is a 0 win guy abreu is a 1 win guy dunn is a 1 win guy btw, just to add onto the defensive kick, 2 guys as seemingly throw ins acquired by the Mariners in the mega 12 player trade are equal to or greater than 1 win guys...Both Gutierrez and Chavez (as I mentioned in the UZR thread before they were traded) are consistant defensive freaks If they stick both of them in the OF with Ichiro (merely and average defender according to UZR, although theres debate as to Ichiros UZR accuracy), then its sure going to be nice to be a FB pitcher for the Mariners

agreed, plus edmonds' bat is probably going to deteriorate (like it was before it magically got good again). i won't miss watching him play OF; he was just brutally slow and that is one thing that ain't changing. Not that you were saying this, but to clarify, I wasn't trying to compare '09 Fukudome to '09 Edmonds. I was trying to see how '09 Fukudome would replace '08 Edmonds in the CF platoon. And Wade, you should take that to mean that Fukudome in CF will likely be no difference from Edmonds was last year, on an offense+defense basis. Bradley throughout his career has been an above average defensively(a conservative estimate using UZR is +5-7 runs over a full season in RF), and as we all know he kills the ball(career .359 wOBA, .397 last 3 years, .385 projected for '09). meaning bradley is a 3.5 win guy (big health assumption) ibanez is a 0 win guy abreu is a 1 win guy dunn is a 1 win guy

especially when they had a trade in place without giving him up Hey let's not go pretending like we know what exactly was in that offer. I'm certain there's plenty of he-said she-said going on here, but what both the Cubs and especially Axelrod are putting out there now is that the Pads were being completely unreasonable. I'd hate to see what completely unreasonable looks like with no DeRosa involved. all i know is that derosas name popped up way late in the peavy talks

especially when they had a trade in place without giving him up

Gee, I wonder why you are picking out the worst guys of the proposed package as your example? Could it be because you have a crap argument? Hart is what our 8th starter? You are absolutely correct, losing him would not hurt this team. However, unfortunately for the validity of your point, and for the Cubs, the Padres are asking for more than just Kevin Hart. Losing DeRosa would be a big blow to the team. He was exceptionally good offensively last year, and very good the two prior years. Additionally, his versatility gives the Cubs a lot of options. We don't need to get a guy who can play 3B, incase ARam goes down. We can sign Bradley and not have to worry about him getting injured because DeRo could replace him. Fontenot had a great year last year, but it was in limited time and when he was put in situations to succeed. I like him, but to think he'd be a lock to approach DeRos #s is foolish. Additionally, moving him from the bench to starting 2b takes away one of your better pinch hitters and your middle infield depth, so you'd have to replace that too. Losing Marshall would be a big blow to the depth of the pitching. He has shown that he can be successful out of the pen or in the rotation. With an injury risk like Harden in the rotation, losing our 6th starter would mean instead of going from a top 5 starter in Harden to an average starter in Marshall, we'd (skipping over Hart and Guzman because they were traded too) have to rely on Gaudin, Shark and God knows who after him. Pie and Cedeno I don't mind losing one bit. I don't think they'll be big contributors to the major league team (even if there are injuries) and have long lost their prospect luster. You can sign a back up SS for a mil or so that can replicate Cedeno's production and we already have Johnson to back up CF. Vitters I also don't mind losing. He obviously has a lot of value and is a great prospect, but his value to the Cubs is really as a trading chip, and thats what he'd be used for here. Not long ago we were talking about this deal without DeRosa and things sounded like they were progressing pretty well, even to the point where the "general framework" of the deal was in place. Frankly, that means to me that its not DeRosa as a player that is the issue, its DeRosa's paycheck that is. In that case, I'd much rather trade Kevin Gregg and retain DeRosa (or go back in time and never have traded for Gregg in the first place). Losing Marshall hurts, but I think its palatable, however losing DeRosa isn't. So your hang up is Mark DeRosa ? Do you know how crazy that is? DeRosa and Marshall for Peavey, forget the rest since they don't matter. That's a crap argument. There are a lot of implications beyond just Mark DeRosa in losing Mark DeRosa. Such as big downgrades to the bench and probably moving on from Bradley and looking at someone like Ibanez/Abreu. Thats what I was trying to say.

Gee, I wonder why you are picking out the worst guys of the proposed package as your example? Could it be because you have a crap argument? Hart is what our 8th starter? You are absolutely correct, losing him would not hurt this team. However, unfortunately for the validity of your point, and for the Cubs, the Padres are asking for more than just Kevin Hart. Losing DeRosa would be a big blow to the team. He was exceptionally good offensively last year, and very good the two prior years. Additionally, his versatility gives the Cubs a lot of options. We don't need to get a guy who can play 3B, incase ARam goes down. We can sign Bradley and not have to worry about him getting injured because DeRo could replace him. Fontenot had a great year last year, but it was in limited time and when he was put in situations to succeed. I like him, but to think he'd be a lock to approach DeRos #s is foolish. Additionally, moving him from the bench to starting 2b takes away one of your better pinch hitters and your middle infield depth, so you'd have to replace that too. Losing Marshall would be a big blow to the depth of the pitching. He has shown that he can be successful out of the pen or in the rotation. With an injury risk like Harden in the rotation, losing our 6th starter would mean instead of going from a top 5 starter in Harden to an average starter in Marshall, we'd (skipping over Hart and Guzman because they were traded too) have to rely on Gaudin, Shark and God knows who after him. Pie and Cedeno I don't mind losing one bit. I don't think they'll be big contributors to the major league team (even if there are injuries) and have long lost their prospect luster. You can sign a back up SS for a mil or so that can replicate Cedeno's production and we already have Johnson to back up CF. Vitters I also don't mind losing. He obviously has a lot of value and is a great prospect, but his value to the Cubs is really as a trading chip, and thats what he'd be used for here. Not long ago we were talking about this deal without DeRosa and things sounded like they were progressing pretty well, even to the point where the "general framework" of the deal was in place. Frankly, that means to me that its not DeRosa as a player that is the issue, its DeRosa's paycheck that is. In that case, I'd much rather trade Kevin Gregg and retain DeRosa (or go back in time and never have traded for Gregg in the first place). Losing Marshall hurts, but I think its palatable, however losing DeRosa isn't.

And now we know why Axelrod didn't carpool back with Towers.

I didn't want Ibanez at all. But if the Rays can convince Bradley to go there, the Phillies get Ibanez, the White Sox get Abreu, does that leave us Dunn? I know the Rays are the flavor of the month, but if given similar offers, I cant see Bradley chosing the Rays over the Cubs. You never know what the season will bring, but Im guessing that the Rays had their chance, and the Yanks and Sawx are going to resume their dominance over the division. Seriously? I mean they may not go to the WS next year but the Rays didn't have a fluke season and have a ton more young excellent prospects in the minors. The Yanks are spending a ton on pitching but still have a subpar offense. I don't see how they are going to have dominance over the Rays.

Probably just about the last team we would have wanted to take him.

All the media had lunch with the GMs...he wasnt special

Do you really think they look at stats that closely? He bats lefty. I like Fontenot, love his plate approach. But is there really a difference between him and DeRosa? It's just handedness. Bradley can bat lefty. BTW, I like Bradley, always have. Well I'd hope that they look that closely at statistics. The whole point (for them) is to add a good lefty. Bradley isn't good as as lefty. I'm not saying I care... I want Bradley and I don't really care about the lefty stuff anyways. It would just surprise me since Lou is so smitten on every available lefty... lefty Another reason to add a lefty is to make the pitcher face hitters from different sides of the plate. I don't know if its been studied or not, but conventional baseball knowledge is that if a pitcher faces a bunch of guys from one side of the plate then hes able to lock in on his spots. If its mixed with righties and lefties he has to move around the plate (and possibly the rubber) and it makes it more difficult for him to get in a groove. I guess I can understand that based on muscle memory and repeated motion (aka getting in a groove).

bradley is a + half win defender abreu is a - 1.5 win defender in other words, bradley is $9M more valuable than abreu on defense alone and theres a decent offensive advantage for bradley as well Any kind of fielding statistics on Bradley were probably compiled a few years ago when he was healthier and actually played some OF. Plus... you know.... they're fielding statistics According to UZR hes been a pretty consistent positive performer on defense In 2007 he put up 480 innings of + a half a win OF defense In 2006 he put up 802 innings of + 1.5 win RF defense, 125 innings of + .5 win CF defense

but ibanez is worse they're pretty close...uzr has abreu a bit worse but how many games has ibanez actually played in rf? meh, RF LF, same howry not really. derosa was alright in right field but we all saw how bad he looked in left. there is a learning curve 21 innings? you are basing derosa's LF prowess off of 21 innings of anecdotal observation. (btw UZR had him as completely average, but again, its 21 innings). Albert Pujols went 0 for two and a half games...true story. What I'm saying is that there isn't a real difference between RF in LF in general. There are different differences within different stadiums, there are big differences between RFs in different stadiums. No one's OFs are the same, but in general, a RF and a LF aren't terribly different. Regardless, we are arguing that Abreu and Ibanez are both pretty darn bad fielders, whoever is going to be better year to year is not going to be due to talent but rather randomness, I'm confident in that.

My boss was showing me his season ticket holder renewal form today which has all the prices. If I have time at work tomorrow I'll post them...or one of the members here who is a season ticket holder could do the same :D

to a very large degree, i agree with this, however, taking a weighted average of the last 3 years of uzr IMO is better than nothing the thing with advanced defensive metrics is that their results vary drastically year to year, so they obviously aren't measuring true talent. Its a bit that the stats are flawed (which even the advanced ones are to a degree), but mostly theres a huge amount of randomness. Is Crisp really the best defender one year and below average the next year...well maybe. So that begs the question...whats the point of valuing defense if it can be so random from year to year. However, of course there are the guys that are consistantly bad (lots of the corner OF types) or consistantly good (endy chavez, franklin gutierrez), but there are a lot of guys that vary in that year to year. So, don't look at the 2008 UZRs and take them as dogma for what the players defense will be in 2009. Look at the last 3 years, take a weighted average, add in some aging if necessary and regress it to the mean. You'll find that guys like Abreu/Ibanez/Dunn are pretty darn bad.

The solution to this is simply to not lose any games next year. with peavy in the rotation...that could happen :D

but ibanez is worse they're pretty close...uzr has abreu a bit worse but how many games has ibanez actually played in rf? meh, RF LF, same howry

As long as there is an adequate back up, go with the "going to be good or going to be injured type of guy" (ala harden)...much better than a guy whos defense is going to cancel out much of his bat

but ibanez is worse they're pretty close...uzr has abreu a bit worse

bradley is a + half win defender abreu is a - 1.5 win defender in other words, bradley is $9M more valuable than abreu on defense alone and theres a decent offensive advantage for bradley as well

Actually, he slugged 560 in the TL, not 500. A 136 IsoP, nothing to write home about, a 199 from a guy who could play second...well thats DeRosa-esque. Of course the TL is not the MLB.

Lastnight was pretty cool. We met for drinks and some food in the Govenors room, then Troy Murray started off an interactive interview with Quenneville and we asked a bunch of questions. After that we got a tour of the coaches room, locker room, training room and Quenneville talked about how they prepare, what the guys do, etc. On the way back we walked out onto the floor and walked around the basketball court (and watched the luvabulls practice). It was pretty cool. I was talking with Murray during drinks and he said that they are going to bring Wisniewski back this week and someone, or possible two guys are going to get screwed because the Hawks have no cap room. Quenneville is really high on Bolland. He thinks he can be a Sharp/Toews level of player. When asked about Kyle Beach, Quenneville said he was promising, but probably wouldn't get much time on the Hawks this year. The crowd was pretty critical of the PP and shootouts and Quenneville said that he likes the PP the way it is with the defensive shooters at the point and spreading out the PK for open cross ice passes and that they work on shootouts every day and keep track of whos scoring and whos not and that its definitely a sore subject since they've lost so many points with lost shootouts. Interestingly he said they have a nutritionist and have the guys come in and have breakfast at the stadium and pre-game meals and the such. Sounds like the guys eat most of their meals at the stadium. Said that on the first day he walked on the crest in the floor of the locker room and all the players gave him a hard time but let him have a mulligan. 2 days ago he walked on it again and they caught him and he had to pay $100. He thinks they have plenty of scoring and really need to focus on defense. Everything comes from good defense. Thinks it will take 92-94 points to make the playoffs in the West. He said it seems as though there are a lot of ties and whenever the West plays the East the West wins. Obviously, the Wings and the Sharks are the top teams, but he thinks the Hawks should separate themselves from the big pack fo 10-13 teams behind them and become a solid #3 team in the West. He noted, they'd already be there in points if it weren't for all the OT loses. Thats about it...Quennevile said he grew up a Hawks fan and that he LOVED playing in the old Stadium.