nilodnayr

They have Rhee as a RHP I'll sume it up and give their best case/workst case outlooks Vitters: best pure hitter in the NWL, amazing plate coverage, worked on his Defense enough for the Cubs to think he can be an average fielder at third, best case: all star 3B, batting titles and solid power, worst case power and defense dont progress leading to a mismatch of skills and position Shark: nothing new, can dominate, struggles with consistancy, sucked his entire pro career except for august, best case: stuff to be a closer or front line starter but too inconsistant, worst case: August was a fluke, his track record is awful Ceda: classic closer, fastball/power slider, overthrows sometimes leading to control issues, started putting on soft weight this year, best case: dominant closer, worst case: closer/set up man Lee: best teenage player out of Korea, would have been top 20 pick in the draft, better than any american HS SS except Beckham, long, loose, quick, athletic, projects to have average power, plenty of defense, good instincts, good arm, good range, plus-plus speed, obviously hes raw and hasn't been exposed to pro pitching, best case: all star SS, not superstar, but above average offense and defense, worst case: a lot can go wrong between now and the majors Cashner: off the radar before this year, fastball has good speed (sits in mid 90s, hits upper 90s consistantly) and good control, with late sink, also throws a wipe-out power slider, average curve and strong change up, deceptive delivery, ran into control problems after signing (duh), fell apart mechanically and was overthrowing, best case: power starter with big time Ks, worst case: late inning relief Blerg, work calls, I'll finish the rest when I can. Ok, back... Colvin:already covered...best case 300 hitter, 20-25 HR, 15 SB and badnews kills himself, worst case: 4th OF Rhee: smooth, easily repeatable mechanics, average velocity, great command, plus changeup, strong makeup, ineffective slider an dcutter, TJS obviously, cubs think he'll have a full recovery. Best case: solid mid-rotation starter, Worst Case: doesn't recover from TJS. Flaherty: projects to hit for average and a bit of power, sound swing, natural loft, good strike zone judgement, good fundamentals and instincts, big for a middle infielder, average arm, will be an offensive second baseman. Best case: 15-18 HRs, all out style fan favorite 2b, Worst case: utility guy Castillo:already covered, Best case: solid but unspectacular starting catcher, worst case: defensive backup without a bat to start Veal: another disappointing year, still has size and still is a lefty, still sits at 90 and touches mid 90s, plus curve, bad mechanics, loses focus, Best case: solid starter, worst case: LOOGY Hoffpauir: we know him no need to describe him, best case: crummy team's stating first baseman, worst case: lefty power pinch hitter.

What was his bonus? BPro said seven figures...hard to underrate a guy signing out of korea for seven figures. BA had him at a $725,000 which doesn't scream top 5 prospect (even in this system) when you're getting him in a free agent market. Of course, the Pacific Rim isn't as competitive as Latin America. Ha, and $725,000 doesnt scream seven figures either :)

Their size and popularity has never stopped ESPN from reporting nonsense as absolute fact. I don't think there is such a thing as "too big" a blog to post the occasional garbage story. It is a blog. Blogs by definition do not contain fact, and if they claim to, links are expected to be provided substantiating the fact. ESPN has expanded their blog section greatly in recent years, where a lot on conjecture occurs, but you don't often see a story about a trade reported as fact unless a deal is in place "in principle", if not official. I do wish sites that contain both "news" and blogs would do a better job separating the space they share, because it is too easy to mistake a news report for a blog. Ok, Buzz Bissinger.

I think exactly the opposite. I think we are being used as a decoy and the Pads are just trying to get that extra whatever they want from the Braves.

What was his bonus? BPro said seven figures...hard to underrate a guy signing out of korea for seven figures.

If that was the case then I would have guessed he would have at least gotten a shot at SS over the last couple years. Hell, even Fontenot got a shot (albeit extremely extremely abbreviated). I'd love for him to move to SS, don't get me wrong, but I'm just sayin'

Corey Patterson I kid, I kid. My #1 was Ryan Sweeney, but after trading Gonzalez, I'm betting the A's keep Sweeney. I'd have to look back through my cheap lefty OFs thread. Edmonds, Endy Chavez, Mark Kotsay, and Kenny Lofton are the ones that would cost only a little in terms of $ or in Chavez's case talent.

Corey Patterson I kid, I kid. My #1 was Ryan Sweeney, but after trading Gonzalez, I'm betting the A's keep Sweeney. I'd have to look back through my cheap lefty OFs thread.

Theriot would be the absolute perfect player for Petco. The anti-Greene, if you will.

They have Rhee as a RHP I'll sume it up and give their best case/workst case outlooks Vitters: best pure hitter in the NWL, amazing plate coverage, worked on his Defense enough for the Cubs to think he can be an average fielder at third, best case: all star 3B, batting titles and solid power, worst case power and defense dont progress leading to a mismatch of skills and position Shark: nothing new, can dominate, struggles with consistancy, sucked his entire pro career except for august, best case: stuff to be a closer or front line starter but too inconsistant, worst case: August was a fluke, his track record is awful Ceda: classic closer, fastball/power slider, overthrows sometimes leading to control issues, started putting on soft weight this year, best case: dominant closer, worst case: closer/set up man Lee: best teenage player out of Korea, would have been top 20 pick in the draft, better than any american HS SS except Beckham, long, loose, quick, athletic, projects to have average power, plenty of defense, good instincts, good arm, good range, plus-plus speed, obviously hes raw and hasn't been exposed to pro pitching, best case: all star SS, not superstar, but above average offense and defense, worst case: a lot can go wrong between now and the majors Cashner: off the radar before this year, fastball has good speed (sits in mid 90s, hits upper 90s consistantly) and good control, with late sink, also throws a wipe-out power slider, average curve and strong change up, deceptive delivery, ran into control problems after signing (duh), fell apart mechanically and was overthrowing, best case: power starter with big time Ks, worst case: late inning relief Blerg, work calls, I'll finish the rest when I can.

Defensively? Because offensively he's pretty good Ibanez to a one year deal would be OK but he's getting older. I don't expect the same type of numbers from him 1-2 years from now. A 1 year deal would be ideal but he probably will at least demand a 2 year deal and possibly at least a 3rd year option, I wouldn't be opposed to a 2 year 18-22 mil. deal. Now that Willingham got traded I doubt Hermida is available(unless we overpay). It looks like Ibanez is a real possibility, unless we open up the check book (unlikely) for Dunn or Abreu. Or take a big chance on Bradley as it is unlikely that he can make it through a full season healthy playing 150+ games in the field. Ibanez is probably my first choice of all the available FA even though I really want Hermida, but that is looking unlikely. Frankly I don't think Bradley represents that much injury risk at all, given the depth the Cubs have. I don't mind a scenario where Bradley puts up a 900-950 OPS but spends 30 or 40 games on the DL. That'd pave the way for some combination of Fontenot (DeRo to RF), and/or Hoffpaiur to play more regularly for a couple weeks at a time. Or you shift Fukudome over to RF and give Pie the extra ABs in the CF platoon. Plenty of decent short-term options there. IMO the risk Bradley represents is his combustability, but I'd feel ok about that with the Cubs' veteran clubhouse and Lou's no-nonsense approach. I would say missing 30-40 games would be considered a injury risk, that is roughly 1/5 of the games. I agree we do have great depth but Ibanez is the safer bet to stay healthy and therefore produce better numbers, however if Bradley is healthy for the full season he could put up some good numbers and I do like the fact he is a switch hitter. If we end up with either I would be happy. Perhaps I wasn't clear. Injury risk? Yes. But one that's easily and effectively manageable, thus negating most of the damage. Ibanez' defense is a scary thought. I think Bradley would be appreciably better in that regard but perhaps not. How bad is Ibanez' defense? Worse than Dunn? Like I said I really would like to have either and am not biased towards either. Just for reference here is Bradley's defensive line from last year 20 G 165.1 IN 50 TC 43 PO 4 A 3 E 3 DP .940 FP Here is Ibanez' 153 G 1340 IN 316 TC 302 PO 9 A 5 E 1 DP .984 FP Bradley played 19 of his 20 games in RF. All of Ibanez' games were in LF. Pulling the ESPN defensive metrics is about as fruitful as spray painting your bald head and telling everyone you have hair.

Remember what position he plays.

The only way this trade makes sense to me is if in addition to getting Matt Holliday, Beane signed Jackson Holliday to a 25 year contract.

Probably Cust. Per my original post, I had Holliday at one corner, Sweeney in center, Barton at first and Buck, Cunningham and Cust in the running for the other corner OF and DH. I just didn't mention DH specifically. Sorry about the confusion. I don't really like Ryan Sweeney as a hitter all that much, but looking him up, he's younger than I thought. Sweeney's probably a better bet to produce next year than Cunningham, although I think Cunningham might still have a brighter future. Cunningham and Sweeney are an interesting study of numbers vs scouting (and funny enough, both out of the white sox system). I think based on what Sweeney did last year and age, the A's will start Sweeney in CF this year and send Cunningham back down to AAA to wait for the eventual injury. But if they are looking to clear room for Cunningham, I'd LOVE to take Sweeney off their hands :D

Ibanez's terrible defense nearly cancels out all his offensive production...true story.

Either Burnett or Lowe.

You forgot DH. Sweeney starts in CF, Buck starts in right, Cust is full-time DH, Barton starts at 1B, Cunningham is the 4th OF. A's still have Davis, Murton and Denorfia too. Not sure, but its possible none of those guys have options left. I actually did not forget DH. I think using Cunningham as a 4th OF is a misuse of reasonably well-regarded prospect, especially when you have a guy like Sweeney in your starting lineup. That is why I don't care for this solution so much. So who are you DHing? I like Sweeney more than Cunningham, but either can play CF if needed. I'd probably send Cunningham back to AAA, the A's have plenty of 4 OF types.

You forgot DH. Sweeney starts in CF, Buck starts in right, Cust is full-time DH, Barton starts at 1B, Cunningham is the 4th OF. A's still have Davis, Murton and Denorfia too. Not sure, but its possible none of those guys have options left.

I agree with you 100%. Even with Peavy the Braves don't have the pieces to compete in the NL East. Braves team right now: Write them off pre-season, there is no way in hell they contend. 2% chance at winning the division Braves team with Peavy: A marked improvement, but they are still near the bottom of the teams in the middle rung (rung between teams that are favorites and those that don't have a chance in hell). 8% chance of winning the division Braves team with Peavy and $30M of additional money to spend on whoever they want in FA, while still having some (not a lot anymore) prospects they would be willing to trade: A team that still will not be favorites by any stretch of the imagination, but have moved up to at least the top half of the middle rung teams. A team that should be .500, with more downside than upside. 20% chance of winning the division.

Street is nothing to Beane. His experience is that solid closers grow on trees. Greg Smith, while still just 26, has no control and slightly above average strikeout stuff but gives up quite a few longballs. He's not really a Beane type pitcher. I am not surprised he flipped Gonzalez at all. I figured Gonzalez would get traded. His perceived value is much higher than his actual value (in Beane's eyes). I really don't think Beane makes this deal unless he thinks he has enough money to sign Holliday long term. I honestly don't see him giving up a whole lot I think what TT was commenting on was from the other side of the ledger. I definitely see Beane trading all of those guys, but not for Holliday. Hes gotta plan to 1) sign him long term 2) trade him at the deadline or 3) get his comp draft picks. I can't see how any of those are more valuable (either in terms of real assets or tradeable assets) than the package he gave up. I don't disagree with much of what you said, but while Street was nothing to Beane, he most definitely has value to other teams as a cheap alternative to a very inflated closers market. Frankly, I think this is one of those lose-lose deals.

I dunno. I didn't think they had much of a shot over both Philly and NY. But I guess it's fair to say they were in the conversation. Yeah, that was pre-season for 2008 (a bit early in the offseason for2 009 predictions :D ). If you go back and look at the pre-season predictions, many many many people had the Braves winning the East. Sorry, there wasn't any clear indication in your post you meant pre-2008, so I had assumed you were speaking in the present. And fwiw, anyone pre-2008 that had picked the Braves over the Mets or the Phillies was doing so on reputation, or else drinking. Nearly everything I can remember from the pre-2008 season had the East with two teams making the playoffs, with the other divisions being much weaker. I thought most had Mets and Phillies, but something in my brain tells me the Braves were the popular dark horse pick. I do remember Neyer writing something about the carry-over effect of a dozen (or whatever) division titles in a row by the Braves still impacting pre-season predictions. Especially since the year writers actually did write them off (was it 2005?), they still won it, surprising everyone, and this 'never underestimate the Braves' attitude seems to have forever permeated the baseball writing circles. Well I did use the phrases "at the beginning of the year" and even "last years" multiple times, but hey, it happens, no biggie. As far as the Braves, 10 of the 19 ESPN guys predicted the Braves to make the playoffs. They aren't the sharpest tools in the shed, but they weren't the only ones to put the Braves as a contending team. They were an 88 win pythag team in 2007, afterall and that was only with 2 months of Tex. Philly was an 87 win pythag team in 2007 and was losing Rowand. The mets were an 86 win pythag team in 2007 and made the big addition of Santana, but many feared the aging of Alou and Pedro, a thin pen and the hangover from the choke job. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/preview08/news/story?page=08expertpicks You'd have to have been drunk, passed out, puked on yourself, wrung the vomit out of your clothes and into your mouth to try to keep the buzz to think that the Braves, coming into 2008, were not among the favorites to win the NL East. Or it might just be tough to look back with objectivity after the rough Braves 2008 season :)

Updated... 2:39pm: Troy Renck says the A's had been offering Street and Gonzalez. Meanwhile ESPN adds Ryan Sweeney and Gonzalez to their mix of players discussed. 2:30pm: Brown says the two teams have agreed in principle to a deal that will send Gonzalez, Smith, and Street to the Rockies. 2:24pm: The ESPN report now says Brett Anderson was under discussion as well as Smith.

I dunno. I didn't think they had much of a shot over both Philly and NY. But I guess it's fair to say they were in the conversation. Yeah, that was pre-season for 2008 (a bit early in the offseason for2 009 predictions :D ). If you go back and look at the pre-season predictions, many many many people had the Braves winning the East.

So far... http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/11/as-acquire-matt.html A's Acquire Matt Holliday By Tim Dierkes [November 10 at 1:27pm CST] 2:03pm: The ESPN guys talked to A's assistant GM David Forst, who said, "It's still an ongoing discussion." 2:00pm: Ken Rosenthal chimes in. The deal may not be finalized for about 48 hours. Players discussed over the weekend: Carlos Gonzalez, Huston Street, and Smith. Rosenthal says the A's do not plan to flip Holliday or trade him in July. 1:57pm: ESPN's Buster Olney and Jerry Crasnick say the two teams have agreed to terms, and believe pitcher Greg Smith was under discussion. 1:51pm: Yahoo's Tim Brown also says a deal is close. 1:27pm: According to SI.com's Jon Heyman, the A's traded for Rockies outfielder Matt Holliday. More as it comes in!

You're placing a 72-90 team as a favorite for the playoffs next season. It isn't true now, and it wouldn't be true with Peavy. They would be a 'middling' team either way, to use your term. Reading comprehension is key