nilodnayr

So Hendry's incompetence includes his inability to flood the free agent pool with quality players? I assume he means in terms of positions already being filled.

Then you don't have a very good imagination. Theres been talk of moving Drew to CF all offseason (if they acquired Tex).

RF, Drew gets moved to CF.

Bay, Drew, Holliday...that would be quite the OF. I guess that would take them out of the Tex running.

http://tangotiger.net/marcel/ Yowser, Marcel loves DLee, putting him in a tie with Tex. Thats a noodle scratcher since his MVP-esque season is now a distant memory. Unsurpisingly, not a fan of Dempster or Wood. Theres just a lot of craziness going on here, especially with the hitters.

I don't like giving that $ to middle relievers who just so happen to get an "S" next to their name in the boxscore....ohh and trading one of our best prospects as well. This signing made the Cubs look like idiots. Well yeah I'd still have preffered this to the gregg trade I guess technically, Wood coming out and saying he would have signed for 1 year made the cubs look like idiots..

I don't like giving that $ to middle relievers who just so happen to get an "S" next to their name in the boxscore....ohh and trading one of our best prospects as well. This signing made the Cubs look like idiots.

I'd be more likely to believe the Peavy/Greene/Dye thing if Dye wasn't mentioned. I can't imagine Hendry/Lou filling RF with a righty when they seem so obsessed with getting a lefty. Technically, Jordan Danks can't be traded till the summer. And technically, Kenny and Jim have a very good relationship. And technically, why would the Padres trade one of their best position prospects in such a convoluted deal (even though he plays a blocked position). And technically, that would blow the Cubs payroll past 150M (assuming they bring back Dempster). And technically, Dye hits from the right side of the plate. And technically, I'm not hating on dextermorgan at all. I'm just saying that trade makes LLF look like...well someone who works in the realm of reality. P.S. Even though every single word preceding it negated virtually all credibility, I'd love for us to pick up Vazquez on the cheap rather than resigning Dempster.

I'd trade Cedeno, Veal, and Marquis for Scott in a heartbeat. Id take a flyer out on that deal, however, I wouldnt be surprised if we could get Scott for Marquis alone, as desperate as the O's are for starting pitching, seemingly every year. Hes always been an >.800 OPSer and could possibly capitilize on Wrigley. You serious? Marquis has negative trade value and they're going to trade Scott (a guy who, by all accounts, the Orioles organization is in love with) for him? Come on. They're desperate for starting pitching that is actually good and helps them in the future. Not a crappy pitcher who is under contract for one year and owed over 10 mil. Your probably right, but you never know with that train wreck of an organization. Yeah, I mean you never know. He was just the cornerstone of the deal inwhich they traded their best freakin player since Cal Ripken for and put up a really good year and costs nothing, but hey, theyre idiots, you never know what will happen! In related news, Sabean might trade Lincecum for Daryl Ward. I know Ward is a FA, the cubs know Ward is a FA, Sabean knows Ward is a FA, but you never know with that train wreck of an organization!

http://jobsearch.mlb.careers.monster.com/getjob.asp?JobID=76695390

I'd trade Cedeno, Veal, and Marquis for Scott in a heartbeat.

Anyone, we'd be better off with ANYONE over Griffey.

Ping, deleting posts???

So you are arguing that a pitcher has control over his BABIP neutralizing for batted ball type? You aren't going to win that battle, especially for a reliever that has such little batters faced that way more of their BABIP is due to luck rather than anything the pitcher does. No, I'm stating that there are multiple reasons, not limited to "luck" or stats that just reflect luck. And those reasons are?

So you are arguing that a pitcher has control over his BABIP neutralizing for batted ball type? You aren't going to win that battle, especially for a reliever that has such little batters faced that way more of their BABIP is due to luck rather than anything the pitcher does.

How much do you think it would take to get Gutierrez? He didn't hit last year and they have Francisco, Sizemore, Choo, plus Dellucci under contract. I'd expect us to have to give up a top 10 prospect for him. They have no reason to trade him right now. Yeah, maybe someone like Jose Ceda :) Gutierrez would be the best option because his defense isn't just good, its fantastic Dial has him at 2 wins on defense. Hes the Mark Ellis/Adam Everett of the outfield. Not only could he be used as the skinny end of a platoon but he could be used as a defensive replacement quite often. Ohh yeah, and hes pre-arbi so he fits in the budget well. Kearns is coming off a terrible season, is only "pretty good" in the OF, and costs 8M (and has a 1M buyout next year). The Nats would love to trade him and would probably eat most of his contract (or take back the Marquis contract). Everything taken into consideration though, I think Gutierrez is the much better option In fact, exploring defensive value a bit more shows some interesting stuff. Again, using Dial's metric, Gutierrez was actually the best defender in the game last year. Here are some guys we've talked about: Gutierrez: +21.7 Giles: +11.3 Kearns: +5.1 Hermida: +11.5 Sweeney: +8.05 Scott: +7.81 Dejesus: +7.89 Winn: +4.4 Edmonds: -4.5 Kotsay: -8.4 McClouth: -10.5 Hawpe: -23.2 Abreu: -21.99 Ibanez: -16.08 (note, some guys played a different position than corner OF so you have to adjust, such as with McLouth and Edmonds) http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p9BODtOllD4u0JrhtbUmILA&gid=0

He didn't use him poorly...he just overused him Marmol in the closer role almost seems like a waste lou used him poorly ... some of the time if marmol makes 50 appearances or whatever as a closer, that will be misusing him all of the time Well thats just wrong. Using someone as a closer is pretty much by definition using him really well some of the time and poorly some of the time. yeah, you're right. I shouldn't have said all the time. I was just saying that odds are using Marmol strictly as a closer will lead to more misuse than if he's left in his fireman role. yeah, the problem is lou doesnt use him as strictly a fireman. itd be best to use him based on leverage, not as a closer only in save situations or set up man only in set up situations, but i know thats asking for a lot.

He didn't use him poorly...he just overused him Marmol in the closer role almost seems like a waste lou used him poorly ... some of the time if marmol makes 50 appearances or whatever as a closer, that will be misusing him all of the time Well thats just wrong. Using someone as a closer is pretty much by definition using him really well some of the time and poorly some of the time.

Wait, so moving Marmol to closer will not allow Lou to use him like he did last year, but Lou...used...him...poorly...last...year...circular formula not computing.

haha. I agree completely. Even though he's been decent, there's no way in hell I want this turkey closing games next year. He's a glorified Chad Gaudin. The big loss in this isn't Wood not closing games for us. The big loss is Marmol closing games, if it winds up that way. You're exactly right. I think you mentioned in the other thread that it's much better to have Marmol pitching in his usual high-leverage spots. Now, they're going to put him in the ninth and move someone who isn't as good into the more important role. And now knowing that Wood would have taken a one-year deal? Brutal. Little known fact (evidently). Wood pitched in higher leverage situations than Marmol last year.

Except the Braves really can't sit on their hands for a few weeks and wait for this to deal to play out as the free agent pitching market gets picked clean in the next few weeks. Since when has the FA pitching market gotten picked bare before the GM meetings?

Or how about we trade Gregg to Florida for HanRam...they need a closer!!!

The argument is based on which stats a pitcher has some measure of control over and those that are far more subject to random variation or other impacts. The items meph was picking on are implied to be those that fall into the latter category. I can understand that repeating the same argument over and over can get tiresome...but meph does need to learn to either let the statement go unchallenged or say more than he does. I know I've been guilty of the same type of thing in the past, but he has a well deserved reputation for taking that shortcut way too often. Which, if any, of BAA, OBP, SLG can be found in the former? All three of those stats are indirectly influenced by the items under a pitcher's control. But you're better off looking at things like strikeout rate, walk rate, ground ball percentage that are under more direct control. From these items you can calculate an expected BAA, OBP, SLG that are more predictive of future triple slash stats than historic slash stats (ba, obp, slg). Ok, thanks. Then what do we make or Gregg's situation where his K rate went down, his BB rate went up, and his GB rate went drastically down over the last couple of years, yet he was still able to post those semi impressive numbers that I stated earlier? Just lucky? I'm not being sarcastic, I really don't know. Yeah, a lot is luck. Just look at his BABIP. Its all over the place. When you are a reliever and only face 300 batters a year, there are going to be wild fluctuations in the stats you have no control over (and even the ones you do). Everyone keeps talking about how hes going to improve moving from the bad FLA defense to the good Cubs defense. His BABIP last year was 261 with a pretty normal batted ball distribution. How in God's name is he going to get a better defensive efficiency from that?!?!?

and bob howry gave up 4 hr in 71 ip away from wrigley in 06 and 07. i can play this game all night long. you're convienately making sure that gregg's outlier season is included. ditto for me. And Gregg gave up 4 HR away from Pro Player in 2007 alone. the fact is that kevin gregg, with the exception of 2008, has been very average when it comes to HR prevention. just because he was fine in 2008 it certainly doesnt mean he will be fine in 2009. the 2005-07 HR have more predicative value than his 2008 results or even 2007-08 results alone. Since I still have pizza cutter's article up...HR/FB doesn't even reach a 0.5 r-squared at 650 batters faced.

I definitely understand what you are saying and your point is valid. However, let's also face the fact that AA relievers with a history of weight & control issues also have a pretty high attrition rate. And while your point about the possibility of not getting a first round pick for Gregg even as a type A is also valid, most type A's do net a first rounder because most teams don't sign more than one type A free agent in a given year. Sure, it does happen, but I believe odds are in the Cubs favor instead of against them. Particularly if Gregg closes and becomes a medium-level type A. Yeah, they do...I guess we'll just have to see if his second half of last year, where he found control, is able to be maintained or not. I think if hes signed as a closer, theres a pretty good chance that he'll go to a bottom 15 team (since he'd be a cheap closer) meaning that their first rounder will be protected. If hes signed as a set up man, theres a pretty good chance that he'll go to a big market team (since he'd be an expensive set up man), who will probably also sign another and better Type A FA. I haven't gone back and looked at the history of it, so its just a guess, but I'd put our chances of 1st round compensation at under 25%. I just think 1) this was a dumb time to trade Ceda and 2) Gregg is relatively non-impactful. Ceda seemed to be making progress with his control and really thats the only thing thats holding him back from being an extremely effective reliever right now. If it were up to me, I would keep Ceda, start him back at AA as the closer and if he shows decent control for 2 months, bring him up and use him as a 6th inning guy. I'm not sold on Ceda long term because of the weight and injury history, but I think trading him now is giving up a decent opportunity to sell high on him.