nilodnayr

Only a .450 IsoP...meh

I really love McCann, but as the time grows near I'll have to evaluate which pool is deeper, MI or catcher. I'll probably be selecting around the 6th pick or so, so theres a decent chance I could draft whoever I don't pick.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bonds-and-a-bat Summary: The difference between Bonds at his peak and a AAAA player was about the same as the difference between a AAAA player and a papaya playing DH. Thats pretty insane. The first thing I did when fangraphs started posting thier WARs and Values was go to Bond's page. Its just ridiculous. If you adjust for 10% inflation, his 2002 season would be worth $62.7M in 2008 dollars. Thats more than #2 (Utley) and #3 (Chipper) combined and over 50% more than Pujols. If you look just at batting value in 2002, Bonds is worth is 2% less than that of Soto, Lee, DeRosa, Theriot, ARam, Soriano, Fukudome, and Edmonds (cubs Edmonds, not Padres Edmonds) in 2008...combined. In 2005, he only had 52 PAs and his line was the worst he'd put up in the previous 6 years and he was still worth $2.4M ($3.14M in 2008 terms). In fact, if you set the minimum at 250 PAs, he was more valuable in his 52 PAs than 73 batters (or roughly 24% of the sample).

I do it was a little kid He was 14, not a little kid. I'm sorry but when you are old enough to be getting HJs under the blanket in your basement while watching Not Another Teen Movie on DVD from a girl with braces, you are no longer a little kid.

That's a pretty darn good deal.

same reaction here. fangraphs has burrell's last two seasons valued at $20.4M just 5 million more than willie harris Except, with the valuation of Burrell as a DH, you don't count defense. So taking UZR out of the equation (which seems to be your point of contention), Burrell should be worth around $10-12M per year.

poor matt murton

I'm keeping Braun, Rollins, Hamilton, Lincecum, and Phillips. McCann has to go back in the draft, although this might be a deep year for catchers (in 1 catcher league)

I wouldn't say Hart is an avoid, I think he may be slightly overvalued in the 5th round, but definitely someone to grab, should he fall. His BA should bounce up to average (not below average like last year or above average like the year before) and hes a 20-20 80-80 guy.

It'd sure be nice to trade DLee and whoever else they want to the Giants for Cain and sign Dunn to play 1B for 10M. Seems like the Giants have money to spend on offense, but they'll probably miss out on Manny. And they have a ton of pitching depth.

How about Pie's numbers ? .275/.323/.434 13 HR 60 RBI and 19 SB Also, Fan Graphs has Bradley's production in '08 being worth $16.9 mil. And yes, of course these numbers are sscewed due to Bradley hitting in a big hitters parking while DHing full-time. He could still reach these numbers, though. I really think we shouldn't put any stock into that fangraphs stat. It seems like all their numbers are extremely inflated. I mean, they had Willie Harris being worth 15.4 mil Last year. Yeah his defense is excellent, but c'mon. Point taken. Just sharing the info. No I know... I'm just sayin A) James' projections are ridiculous, this is well documented. Pay ZERO attention to them. If you are looking at fangraphs, just look at marcel and ignore the Bill James line. You can go to BTF and get ZIPS for about half the teams now and PECOTA should be out in a while. B) Fangraphs $ productions are on as long as you are good with wOBA and UZR. Their numbers aren't inflated, they just fly in the face of what most people believe because they don't think defense is worth jack (either good or bad). UZR definitely isn't perfect, but its one of the best we have right now. A guy like Harris who posted an insane defensive year last year is going to seem inflated, but look at a guy like Abreu who posted an insanely bad defensive year...his value was $5M.

I really doubt they group two of the three lefties at the bottom of the lineup. I agree with that. That said, what can you do here? (2009 projected Marcel's wOBA) Soriano (358) Lee (359) Bradley (384) Ramirez (371) Soto (369) Fontenot (355) Theriot (331) Fukudome/Johnson (326/329)

I doubt they'd load up all the lefties in the 5 (SH), 7, 8 spots.

Burrell will most likely be DHing most of the time. Their OF is going to be Crawford, Upton, and Joyce.

Yeah, as a DH, hes worth about 12M/year, so they got a pretty good deal.

adjust his 2008 season for babip and it's pretty in line with his career

How are you coming up with Dunn as a 1-win guy? I have him at 2.5 WAR using Marcel and UZR/150, maybe slightly less if he really is a poor situational hitter. i was lazy and not adding in for replacement since i was just comparing

Now would be the time to pounce on Swisher...the bat of Ibanez(not that thats great), the defense of Bradley, the health of Abreu, and the age of Dunn...ohh yeah, and at half the price.

Their second-round pick, I believe. And the Jays get a 3rd rounder for Burnett.

I assume your 4th is the Jays...Marcum will be out the entire season, McGowan is coming off rotator surgery, and Litsch is going to regress significantly. Their rotation is pretty effed until 2010. They are a pitching and defense team who is going to have pretty unspectacular pitching next year.

Meh, we've seen pretty clearly lately that its not how much money you spend, but how well you've spent it. Just look at the two teams that had to pay luxury taxes this year...the Yanks and the Tigers didn't even come close to making the playoffs. And the two WS teams, the Rays and the Phils superstars were all homegrown.

no

they are really just trying to make us feel better about the cubs

One pick. I thought Type A players cause teams to give up two picks? A team who loses a type A player gets 2 picks. One comes from the other team and one comes from MLB. Ahhhh, so I was partially right. The Rockies will get 2 picks, but only one from whomever signs him? Ya learn something new everyday Correct, the other is a sandwich (mmm sandwich) between the first and second round.

Hes just about the most anti-Angel guy you'll find. High contact, low walk rate, situational hitting, sacrifices, all hustle...thats Dunn to a T, right?