Geech

Don't you feel bad for defending the first one now?

This thread contains so much of why I love nsbb.

I seriously think it would be better to play LaHair than trade for Loney. At least then you aren't giving anything up.

Stolen bases count double in the NL.

First of all I don't think 2 wins is the max, but even if it is, 2 wins is absolutely worth 5 million. Absolutely. Where would you spend that money more efficiently?

I hear what you're saying. However, between DeWitt's poor defense at second, and Hudson's offensive superiority, such as it was, I think he's still totally worth the difference in money. It would take a precipitous decline in performance next year to close the gap. For all the talk of the need to fill first base, the team also had a big hole at second last year, and Blake DeWitt is probably going to be more of the same. Hudson may not be a perfect player, but he is a very good player. If he can be signed to a 2 year deal for 5 million, the Cobs really need to look into it.

Any projection system worth its salt is going to have some kind of adjustment for age. That being said, I honestly don't know what kind of age-related adjustments the Handbook might make. We can see what the other systems say about them, but I highly doubt any system would justify employing DeWitt over Hudson. I don't think DeWitt has what it takes to justify being a regular player at second, especially next season. If his bat develops a lot more in the next couple of years, he might be a decent option for a bargain third baseman, but he's getting old enough that it doesn't seem very likely. I'm not saying he won't improve at all, but I don't think he'll improve enough.

Says who? Orlando Hudson is going to be 33 years old in 2 weeks and is coming off a season of a .338 OBP. And nearly all of his PAs came hitting in front of Joe Mauer. Hudson (2010)- .338 OBP, .372 SLG DeWitt (2010)- .336 OBP, .373 SLG They are almost literally the same player offensively. Hudson's strong defensively, but he also cost $5Mil vs. DeWitt at 410K. Those are raw numbers that don't consider league or park effects. Hudson's 2010 wOBA was .320 compared to .311 for DeWitt. Furthermore, this was a down year for Hudson, and the lowest wOBA he has posted since 2005. His career total is .337, and the Bill James Handbook projects him to hit to the tune of .332 wOBA next year. DeWitt's .311 is right in line with his relatively short career, .312, and the Handbook project him to post a .312 wOBA next season as well. Since UZR typically likes Hudson at second a whole lot better than DeWitt, and you yourself noted the gap in defense, Hudson's 2010 WAR ended up being 3.1 vs DeWitt's .8. In other words, Hudson at 5 million is a bargain upgrade over DeWitt.

No, not really. Russell Branyan has a career wOBA of .349, and he has been substantially higher than that in recent years. FanGraphs' UZR has him above average at firstbase for his career, with most of that value coming in the past two seasons. In '09 and '10, FanGraphs lists him at 2.9 and 2.0 WAR, despite not playing full seasons in either case. He put up the same value in 428 plate appearances last season as Derrek Lee did in over 600. I pointed out three players on the above list to whom he is clearly superior. There are other players on the list, such as Johnson and Lee, who are superior primarily in terms of upside. I'm not sure I could confidently bet on either one substantially outproducing Branyan if he had a real shot at a starting job. He's clearly a better option than any AAA retread like Hoffpauir, LaHair or even Dan Johnson, my personal favorite retread. You have correctly identified his biggest warts. He's old and has lost playing time to back problems this past season. However, his performance is not an issue. Branyan has proven that he can provide solid value even in a partial season. He's not an especially good option for a team that hopes to contend, but neither is Nick Johnson. Branyan is pretty far from the worst option available.

I believe you are correct. I was responding specifically to daske17's claim that Branyan is the "worst option available". He, and apparently WSR as well, seems to be underrating him substantially.

He is a bench player in that he has filled that role in the past. His play this past two seasons suggests he's more than that to the right teams.

Branyan is better than Hinske, Cantu and probably Glaus at this point. He's probably pretty comparable to Overbay, and Laroche, and he could possibly be had for a relative bargain because of his atypical offensive profile and history as a bench player.

1) I'm not sure I even understand what this means. 2) Dunn is optimistically a three win upgrade over Lee. The difference between Lee's performance for the Cobs and Dunn's performance with the Nats was actually less than that, according to Fangraphs. If Dunn's defense at first isn't legit, it will be even less. 3) Ok, so that's maybe another three wins? I could easily see Marshall and Marmol not replicating their performances, so that's an offsetting factor. 4) Was SP depth a big problem this year? Ted Lilly performed well before he was traded. I don't see this being net gain. 5) I think it's dubious that we'll be in it, but if we are, I'm not sure how you would estimate this. 6) Blake DeWitt was about a win better than Theriot last season. He's young, but his defense was not good, and his offense was right in line with his career numbers. I think we can expect about 1 win gain here. So that's seven wins, and I think that's making some fairly optimistic assumptions. Right now the Cobs are an 82 win team. We're getting a lot closer to 10 wins than I was expecting, but I don't see a whole lot of room elsewhere for more improvements. Even if we make it, we're still talking about an 85 win team which probably doesn't win the division. I just don't see how the Cobs can really be competitive next season. It just doesn't look like it's there.

Where do you think this team gains 10+ wins?

That's what I get for not reading carefully enough.

He had a 1.2 WHIP. Yeah, because of his .192 BABIP.

I agree. I have made that same mistake myself. Anyway, I would have to say that the difference between Dan Uggla and Blake DeWitt at second base is probably going to be worth $11 million per year for the next five years. Depending on what the Marlins are asking in trade, the Cobs should probably look into it.

According to fangraphs, DeWitt is a 2.4 WAR guy in his career.

lmao It's too bad he was such a crazy bastard.

Cool story, bro.

Yep, sure is.

Fukudome finally gets on base this game. I love that we got to Wainwright, though. Hopefully the Cardinals' pitchers will kill themselves in shame.

Hopefully Quade will have a lot of opportunity to observe and reflect on other managers in action next season.

What about Fukudome? This is the second game in a row in which he has not appeared in any capacity.

Well, that's bad, but at least we aren't being subjected to more managerial incompetence.