FergieJ31

If Zambrano starts your in trouble ...

Excellent call :D

I know exactly what you're saying and I agree 100%. It's espcially true in baseball, where you play 162 games, get 600 PA, etc. The breaks and the noise even out as 1/sqrt(N) gets small. Incidentally I don't think Johnson's bunt attempt was terrible, but I wish he had taken a pitch or two, or taken a healthy swing at one to keep the IF honest. Percival was quoted as saying something like "best bunt play I've ever seen", but then again they saved his bacon the hyperbole is understandable. Look at the replay on that: Longoria had no room for error but neither did Aybar, so I don't understand the argument about how far Johnson was from the bag. He was obviously close enough that any bobble at all, or a throw that's off the mark, would tie the game. All in all it was a reasonable calculated risk, certainly on a par with (and probably greater than) the odds that Johnson doesn't make an out swinging away. Again - he should have taken a pitch or two.

Awesome pics - thanks Laura. I see that no-hustle ARam is dogging it as usual in the victory line :wink:

Bonds hasn't been convicted of anything. Bonds is being made an example of mostly because he was an ass, but partly because he broke a sacred record in sports. Perjury has nothing to do with it. You're seriously going to marginalize the perjury indictment behind "being an ass"? They could have gotten a perjury indictment on any of a number of players. Why aren't the going after Palmerio, Clemens, etc., etc., They are going after Clemens. There is an FBI probe and Clemens is looking at a potential perjury charge. And Palmeiro was investigated a few years ago - he came close to perjuring himself but IIRC by denying he used steroids he was technically telling the truth. I do agree, though, that Bonds and Clemens are being targeted in part because of their stature in the game. But it's more about the evidence against them being incriminating. Nothing would make a prosecutor sillier than getting their case against Clemens or Bonds thrown out of court on insufficient evidence. But this is all beside the point; I was only saying it's ridiculous to call out the poster because he doesn't want Bonds on the Cubs, and suggest or pretend it's only because Bonds juiced.

Bonds hasn't been convicted of anything. Bonds is being made an example of mostly because he was an ass, but partly because he broke a sacred record in sports. Perjury has nothing to do with it. You're seriously going to marginalize the perjury indictment behind "being an ass"?

which rules are you referring to? Probably the same rules that Brian Roberts and scads of others broke, yet people would have no problem with those guys on the team. Has anyone stopped being a fan of the Cubs because they didn't outright release Robert Hernandez? Brian Roberts and Robert Hernandez committed perjury too? You think that's why so many people have problems with Bonds? Were we talking about "so many people"? The guy, tspain, simply said he doesn't want Bonds on the Cubs on principle. I'm just saying it's a little absurd to call out the guy by pretending the principle is that Bonds was just another juicer.

which rules are you referring to? Probably the same rules that Brian Roberts and scads of others broke, yet people would have no problem with those guys on the team. Has anyone stopped being a fan of the Cubs because they didn't outright release Robert Hernandez? Brian Roberts and Robert Hernandez committed perjury too?

http://www.picturebookart.org/images/uploads/EricCarleMuseum/shop/9145_MD.jpghttp://www.criticsrant.com/Images/criticsrant_com/TV_The_Closer/the_closer1.jpg

Nice pun in the title of that story - Fred should like that one.

(after Marmol's 2nd K)

Excellent post. I completely agree that the best way to maximize the chance of winning a WS is to field a playoff-contending team for years to come, rather than go for broke in 2008. That's why I'd say no to the Pedro trade proposed by twothousandfive, but I thought that was a very good post & interesting idea. It made concrete the central question posed by this thread, and he's right about one thing: for the question "would you mortgage the future..." to be interesting, a trade proposal has to involve some pain for the Cubs. Getting an effective Pedro for 1/2 year in exchange for Gallagher, Hill, et al, cuts to the heart of the matter.

A walk-off beaning ... now I've seen everything :D

He is a good guy, but don't even think about it (and let's hope Hendry doesn't either). A HoffMurt platoon would outperform JJ in all aspects of the game.

Funny, I just noticed yesterday that there are only three teams over 500 on the road, Phillies, Cardinals & Angels, and was talking to a friend of mine about this. Brad Ausmus got it right: it is a statistical anomaly. And the anomaly will correct itself -- just in time for the Cubs to play the majority of their games on the road :) But this is by far the best quote in that article:

I was in the RF bleachers for that game surrounded by Yankees fans, who were actually really cool. It was their first visit to Wrigley, and they were pretty much in awe & talked to us about Wrigley as a baseball shrine. I'm sure everyone here remembers the hype building up to that game. Cubs/Yankees on the marquee would have been enough by itself, but the sidebars: Clemens #300, Clemens vs. Wood, the Cubs being in 2nd 1 game back ... plus on top of everything it was an absolutely perfect day weather-wise. When Wood and Choi collided, from our vantage point it was impossible to see who was on the ground -- a few minutes later someone with binoculars finally said Choi was hurt, but Wood was kneeling right there next to him. There were a few women nearby sobbing a little bit when the ambulance came out. Never saw that happen before at Wrigley, haven't seen it since. But when Karros went yard, I've never heard it that loud in the bleachers. That game was ridiculously nuts, definitely one of the most unforgettable I've ever seen.

http://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?gameid=280605119 That's a lot of leverage at the end ... each red bar increased the avg blood pressure here about 20 points. Our sham closer closed the deal, that's all that matters.

http://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?gameid=280605119 That's a lot of leverage at the end ... each red bar increased the avg blood pressure here about 20 points. Our sham closer closed the deal, that's all that matters.

Nice that except for the last game, all of these had a happy ending for the Cubs / excruciating ending for the Rox. Another crazy game although not quite in the same class as most of these: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/COL/COL199307030.shtml 64000 jammed into Mile High Stadium for this July 3 game followed by a fireworks display. It was by far the highest attendance I had ever personally witnessed for a ballgame, and the atmosphere was absolutely electric. Also: Sandberg got hit #2000 off Curt Leskanic Cubs unfortunately blew a 3-run lead in the final two innings. By the way, Aramis Fan, thanks for posting that. Chip Carey gets a lot of criticism, but his call on that ridiculously chaotic play was awesome.

Yippee-kiyay .. is there anything more beautiful than a Cub walkoff win? Cubs Win!!

So ... I can turn my TV back on?

Awesome. Thanks for putting that up!

Top 3 OBP teams in MLB as of Tue 4/22 morning: Red Sox, 375 CUBS, 364 Cardinals, 362 =D>

There are a lot of bummed out ppl at Miller Park about right now, checking the scoreboard... WTG Ronny!! (and Felix :D )

Surely you have data to back this opinion up? How on earth could he have data on this? Do they have a "drunk and idiot fans in attendance" stat somewhere on baseball-reference.com? C'mon. And that's the point. Wrigley is no better or worse than any other ball park that has a large attendance in my opinion (or most that have a small one). If one doesn't like drunk idiots, the best option is to stay away from places that drunk idiots populate. To state in unequivocal terms that Wrigley is terrible compared to other ballparks is pretty asinine. Fixed - otherwise you're guilty of the same thing Hornbuckle is. Don't get me wrong, I can appreciate where you're coming from. It shows good discipline to be able to run a few numbers to check and recheck ones assumptions and biases. But the "do you have the numbers to backup your opinion" thing gets a little absurd and out of the control here sometimes. And this coming from a stat-head -- I spend half my day in front of Excel. For what it's worth, I don't entirely agree with Hornbuckle's post and I wouldn't have phrased it as he did, but there is more than a grain of truth to it. I've been going to Wrigley Field for over 25 years and the past 5 years have been the worst I've seen in terms of "fan" behavior (most of the idiots are not fans, of course). By far. That naturally goes hand-in-hand with increased attendance and increased expectations, so I personally don't complain too much. I still enjoy the ballpark experience ... but to deny entirely what he said is ignorant.