I could not disagree more. I'm not sure who gets to be the arbiter of what exactly constitutes a "substantial" argument versus and unsubstantiated argument. Until IMB did the (exceptional) research, no one had provided a modicum of evidence that refuted his position, yet those same people relied on that tangential evidence to perpetually ridicule Cuse as if they had some empirical proof of the fallacy of his argument. If anything, I hope IMB's rebuttal will serve as a reminder that in order to refute a hypothesis it is important to provide relevant statistical evidence, and once that is done, reasonable people will admit they are wrong. Providing tangential (borderline irrelevant) statistical evidence, claiming it disproves the original argument (when, in fact, it does nothing), and coupling it with ridicule and sarcasm will only entrench the both the original theorist and his opposition in orthodoxy (based upon the emotional reaction to the ridicule), and it will be virtually impossible to reach a reasonable level of truth in the matter being discussed. To put it simply: his theory was wrong. The theory had as much statistical basis as did the attempts to refute his theory. Once IMB did the appropriate research, the matter was solved. End of story. Personally, if I'm going to accept an observational theory like Cuse's, a couple of prerequisites need to be met. The theorist needs to have studied the subject intensively. In this case, I mean a close, repeated study of ALL of Mark Prior's outings. Observational theories based on one viewing hold no credibility anywhere. Diane Fossey didn't casually watch gorillas for a few hours and then formulate an opinion. She lived with them. The theorist should also know the subject personally in a case like this. There's no reason to think Cuse has a deeper understanding of Mark Prior than anyone else here who watches the Cubs religiously. Finally, the theorist should also be credentialed in some way to analyze someone's psyche. Personality assessments and behavioral analysis are learned skills. Not everyone is qualified to make them. To my knowledge, Cuse didn't meet any of these prerequisites. (Perhaps he is a behavioral psychologist; I don't know.) Instead, his theory was based on observations, most of them probably faded with time. They were probably also emotionally colored, given his feelings on the subjects (Prior, the Cubs). Like it or not, not every hypothesis is created equally. Nor should every theory be given equal time in its study. Cuse's argument is just one example of a flimsy hypothesis that lacked the substance to warrant serious consideration. If anyone should have been forced to support it/refute it, it should have been Cuse. That's how it works in science, too. Legitimate researchers aren't chasing the sasquatch because they know the likelihood of its existence is microscopic. So that leaves the "believers" in the position to back it up or sound like fools.