CubinNY

I wonder if he will be selling cars?

I think the evidence above shows that it much better to put the first pitch of the at bat in play than the second through fifth pitches. And depending on your preference of OBP or SLG in the makeup of OPS, you could even make the argument that putting the first pitch in play is better than the second through eighth pitches (though I'm not going that far). At the ninth pitch, the OPS of .819 goes past that of the first pitch at .814. No that is not what the evidence shows. It is really not that helpful to look at those data in isolation. At best they tell only a partial picture. The likely reason the batting average is higher is because the batter was looking location and got it. That is great and all, but truely meaningful data would have to look at BA per count. I think it is pretty clear that getting behind in the count is likely to result in lower batting average then getting ahead in the count. Like everything in life context is key. With most pitchers on most nights the best tactic is to try to work the count in your favor. However, if a pitcher is constantly getting hitters into pitchers counts, then the best tactic is to be agressive early in the count. It's not an either/or thing. The Cubs, with the expection of Muton and Walker, almost never work the count in their favor.

To me it appears to be a psychological problem. He's not getting hit hard, he's walking the ballpark in the majors. I like Tim's idea somewhat, but they have to tell him that he's there to stay and that they are done sending him up and down. Give him a role and see if he can do it. IMO, he is not worse than Rusch.

I think they believe there's a chance he could decide not to play in the NFL and they're willing to give him a year to figure things out, especially if they get him signed quickly and playing short-season ball this summer. I think it's very likely he'll have to pick one sport over the other at some point, so that seems like a safe bet. I don't know if they're counting on him falling in the NFL draft or not. I think they're betting a 5th-round-pick that his love of baseball will win out. If he gets guaranteed first round money, I'll be a lot more critical of the pick. Like craig pointed out earlier. I think they will give him some sort of back loaded contract with a little money up front and a bigger payout down the line. That way if he chooses football they'll only be out a draft pick. It appears to me that they Cubs have gone "all in" with this year's draft. The draft wasn't supposed to be very deep so maybe the huge gamble was in order. But either way, I could see this going very badly for the Cubs.

Drop the name calling. Immediately. I don't think his comments were address to me, but I take that as a complement.

This is true, but if the Cubs would have chosen Snider or one of the top ranked college ptichers we wouldn't be having this conversation. To me it's like the Cubs bet all their money on two 50:1 shots to win, when they could have made much safer bets with the little money they had (two picks in the first 5 rounds).

It's not just the people who post here. I think it was Baseball America who called it the biggest surprize in the first round. You can portray it anyway you want, but this pick was not predicted by anyone in any way, shape, or form. Wilken has a good track record, but to just blindly hale the pick and not look at the objective data is not something that is out of the bounds of criticism, especially given the Cubs track record. I think we all hope he turns out great, but that doesn't stop people from questing the pick when other players with better pedigrees and data were out their to be pitcked. It was a big gamble and I think had to do with the fact the Cubs had only one pick in the first four rounds and were planning on another big gamble with their second pick. If Colvin doesn't live up to first round status and the ND kid chooses football this may well be one of the worst drafts ever if none of the other picks pan out. But hey, if you want to use the method of authority go right ahead. I won't criticize you.

Thanks for the giggles...you failed to mention defense here which is where Grudzielanek has it ALL over Todd Walker. OPS alone is not the way to judge a player. You must look at the COMPLETE player...but I know how you stat geeks are. Oh and it helps that Grudz knows how to keep his yapper shut and play the game hard. Character guy... What a huge loss for the Cubs when they lost Grudz. grudz is good defensively? good one. and since when is todd walker not a character guy? you have been listening to too much sports radio I don't listen to sports talk radio. It is rubbish. You stat geeks here amaze me. Funny how any game I watch that the announcers for the other team seem to really like Grudzielanek as an all around player. Trust their judgement over you stat geeks. Are you seriously saying that Grudz is a better "all around" player then Walker? And are you also saying that evidence to the contrary doesn't matter? Simply amazing.

You must have had different baseball coaches than me.

So one has to wonder if the Cubs won't be sold after all the dust settles. I don't know why the Trib would want to sell one of it's more profitable concerns. It would seem to me to be bad business. If I were them I'd sell off a loss leader or three. BTW: Go Mac!

I read that qoute too. At this stage I try to take everything Baker says with a grain of salt the size of Utah. One has to filter what he says. He's worse than Bush at saying things in a way that make him look real bad. I mean, they (football/baseball players) tend to be tougher than who? Regular baseball players? Does this mean that baseball players don't know how to train hard? I don't think Dusty meant any of that. I think he was trying to say something nice about the kid from ND and meant no disrespect to anyone, but it sure didn't come out that way.

I've had a night to sleep on this and although I am not real pleased with the Colvin decision, he has pretty much improved every year in college. Maybe the Cubs have a drafted a kid who is getting better all the time. I mean if you look at the NFL and NBA there are always those kids who had good college careers but really blossomed in the pros. I'm thinking of a Dwyane Wade in Basketball or John Offerdahl* in football. Most of these "unknowns" weren't drafted in the first round though. But Colvin probably wouldn't have been either if the Cubs had more picks. I am hoping that is the case with Colvin. I hope Wilken is correct with this kid. * John Offerdahl was LB from Western Michigan drafted in the 4th round by the Dolphins. He went to 5 pro-bowls and played for 8 years. In college he was a four year starter but really only got noticed his senior year and then only because in the Senior Bowl he blasted Bo Jackson at the goal line.

Well,hes a lefty. They probably didn't bring their lefty bp pitcher on the trip. He's in the booth with Pat.

Crappy lefties own the Cubs.

It will never happen.

Why do you think they have been giving him extra days off? So other teams cannot expose him as fast. Give me a break. Overall, he's pitched ok. He's comming back from shoulder surgery. he probably won't be 100% for awhile. It it what it is. Right now he is a shell of his former self. Do you honestly think he's going to get at 100% during midseason? I'm going to go on record and say resigning him would be a bad idea unless it is for very cheap. This is like April for Wood. It's what, his 4th start? Resigning him is another issue.

Why do you think they have been giving him extra days off? So other teams cannot expose him as fast. Give me a break. Overall, he's pitched ok. He's comming back from shoulder surgery. he probably won't be 100% for awhile.

Wood has no command of his breaking pitches. Right now I'm not too worried. He's pitching like it's April and for his body it is.

Wandy has a fivehead.

I was just going to post something to that effect. Len mentioned he's hitting a buck fifty against lefties. It's b/c they keep pitching him away. I wonder how much Lee's absence has affected his approach. As bad as Clines & Co. appear to be that have to notice this. They just have to. At least he's playing good D.

I present you Juan-Antonio-Pierre Womack He hits .270/320/436 and he plays "rover"

IMO, he would be crazy to play football over baseball. Football contracts are not guarenteed, unless he is a top 5 WR he won't make that much money, his carrer is likely to be much shorter, even bad starting pitchers make $4 mill a year. I guess more money up-front (potentially) but much less money over the course of a career. If the Cubs give him 1st round money or close to it, it would be hard to turn down. An NFL player's contract is no less of a guarantee than a pitching prospects career turning out. Mike Williams got a $10m signing bonus as the 10th pick last year for Detroit, and the salary cap has gone up considerably since then. He will get far more guaranteed up front money in football than in baseball, and it won't take nearly as much time for him to sign his next contract, (assuming he works out in either). And the likelihood of a top football prospect succeeding dwarfs that of a pitching prospect. Yes, I just read your discussion with 1908 in the other thread. I don't follow football that closely so I had no idea that football players made that much money. I suppose it will depend on how much the Cubs are willing to pony up with the dough. What do you think are his chances of signing with the Cubs? If he doesn't sign it will be a wasted pick, with their second pick no less.

IMO, he would be crazy to play football over baseball. Football contracts are not guarenteed, unless he is a top 5 WR he won't make that much money, his carrer is likely to be much shorter, even bad starting pitchers make $4 mill a year. I guess more money up-front (potentially) but much less money over the course of a career. If the Cubs give him 1st round money or close to it, it would be hard to turn down.

First round money and letting him play football doesn't strike me as the greatest of plans. It's not like WR's ever get injured... :wink: and he is a pitcher, getting tackled and having your sholder driven into the ground is great for your fastball Unless he's soft, he should get up and go right back to throwing 94. hahahahahahahahha!

According to the dudes on XM his power hasn't returned from last year. He definately hurt himself by not signing last year.