CubinNY

Techincally, Pawelek had two starts last season in Boise and Grant was a second rounder. The Cubs have a long and dark history of 1st round picks.

That makes a bit of sense. Gonna need a lot of money to woo Jeff. Is this kid from ND worth the Money?

I hope this kid turns into the best outfielder ever, but taking him is not refreshing. This draft was stocked with very good college pitchers and a few hitter from college and high school. Colvin was not among them. He was in the bottom 1/3 of of the top 200 prospects from Baseball America. Baseball America rarely gets things wrong. Before the Cubs took him he was likely to go in the 3rd to 5th round.

He's "projectable", scoutspeak for the objective data say one thing but the subjective data (body type, stance, swing, size) say another. Maybe the Cubs think he would have gotten drafted before the 5th round and he has a lot of potential? Basically, we're all nuts for loving this organization.

Maybe he'll stay for his senior year. stupid wishing for miracles.

WOW. And a Left fielder no less. I really wanted to be happy with this pick. I hope he develops.

So another high risk/high reward pick.

Wasn't Wilkens supposed to have some moderating effect on Hendry???

I wanted the Cubs to draft either one of those two. But I wanted Snider most.

Detriot is absolutely stocked with young pitching.

Appearently not that long.

How long do they take between picks?

Trade him to Florida.

Or go into a roid rage and beat up Hendry.

Rusch started 3 days ago because of one "good" outing in relief where he gave up four runs in four innings.

You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about, none. Hill has not had near enough oppportunity to show what he can do. I said it before and I'll say it again, jerking a pitcher from starting in the minors to relieving in the majors, to starting in the minors, to spot starting in the majors, to relieving in the majors, to starting in the minors, to starting in the majors is not the way to develop a pitcher. Each time Hill has started in the majors his "life" was on the line. Not everyone is Wood or Prior. Hell, Baylor could decide if Z was a starter.

Great game by Z =D> =D> =D>

I don't think the Cubs will trade Maddux unless they can get something back in return. They don't really need to dump salary and he's not really blocking anyone. My guess is he doesn't get traded unless a team thinks they are a decent 4th or 5th starter away from a title and are willing to mortage the future for the present. I don't see that happening.

It all comes down to the granularity and reliability of the data. The analysis should shift to the pitch-by-pitch data. This would actually have a direct benefit to the hitter/pitcher, as how they approach each PA is hugely dependent on the count. Carlos Delgado said that he keeps a log of every one of his PAs. I'd love for every pitcher and batter to do the same, log where they were trying to throw, where the batter was looking for the pitch. It's these things that would make for the holy grail, and give us the ultimate. But, these secrets are important to the pitcher and batter. So, if the Delgado's can donate their diaries after their careers are over, we can gain a huge insight into pitchers and batters. The other area would be fielding, and positioning. Capturing the ball game in 4-D (including a time component), we can know where a fielder and ball is at all times, and how, and how fast, the fielders move towards a ball. The problem here is that this data will be the province of 30 teams instead of 1000 analyst. And the giga or terra bytes of data will be so overwhelming. Frustrated? No. Annoyed maybe. And not at the "traditionals", but also to the "new guard". Everyone wants to have their opinions heard, and the look into the forest for whatever numbers support them. Some people do a great job at it, and some don't. I would much prefer if people voiced their opinions separate and exclusive of numbers. One thing that we really hit hard in The Book is that numbers require alot of interpretation and a margin for error, since performance stats are just samples of something true. And all samples have margins for error. In short, the numbers don't necessarily tell you what you think they tell you. But, what your eyes see gives us great insight that can be used to pair up with the numbers. That's why I love the Fans' Scouting Report. Exactly, Stats don't replace judgment, they aid in judgment. They potentially validate or invalidate judgment. But there always is a confidence factor that has to be taken into account. Thanks, This chat has been great.

Better hitting prospect than Harvey?

I think Drabeck had some sort of an issue with alcohol during his playing days, but I could be mistaken.

Listening to Brenly reminds me why he is in the booth and not in the dugout.

So they're tougher to pitch to but easier to get out? that seems utterly nonsensical. The definition of "tough to pitch to" should be "difficult to keep off base" Question: Where did I write that they are "tougher to picth to". You seem to be having trouble understanding my thesis, so let me simplify it: 1) Minor league hitters are not as good at hitting as MLers; 2) Minor league hitters also have a different approach (i.e., mental approach) to hitting than do MLers; 3) ML pitchers are more accustomed to pitching to ML hitters, and thus are more familiar / comfortable with their approach; 4) Therefore, minor league hitters present a special "problem" for ML pitchers b/c they take a different approach to hitting. This approach does not make up the gap between MLers and minor leaguers (obviously), but perhaps it causes some problems for longtime ML pitchers who find themselves on rehab assignments. I think your entire thesis rests on point #2. For evidence against that I present Corey Patterson as a specific case in point to suggest that what you write is not the case. In addition, in general minor league numbers are a pretty good predictor of major league numbers. Somebody else mentioned Jeff Francour as having success when he first came up. Well, he had a ridiculous BABIP but his approach is pretty much the same as it was in the minors, swing early and swing often. However upon further reflection, I can understand what Dusty and Bruce are saying in some respect. Major league pitchers might not know the tendencies of minor league hitters. There also may be some difficult to quatify variables in play as well.

If the theory is: Minor league hitters are more dangerous then major league hitters, becuase they don't think, they just hack. Then, I would have to disagree with Dusty and Bruce. It presuposes a number of things, the two most important being; 1. Minor league hitters have no discipline. This might be true of the Cubs, but not necessarily true. 2. If a guy doesn't know he's being set up, he can't be set up. Awareness of being set up is the very thing that would make setting up someone impossible. To me this is either an excuse for poor performance or conventional baseball wisdom passed down from old-timers. I wouldn't call it dumb though. If a pitcher is hitting the corners (i.e, staying away from the middle of the plate) and has good movement on his breaking pitches he will get guys out more often then not regardless of what level of competition he is facing.

I am on record NOT wanting Furcal in the worst way. He is one of the most over-rated players in baseball. And that is saying something.