CubinNY

I'm as numbers oriented as anyone. Heck I'm a scientist. That's why qoutes like the below drive me up the freaking wall. No scientist worth his salt would make such a statement. There is measurement error in any model. And variation is not the same as luck. One does not call everything that cannot be explained by a model luck. I'm glad that the author took the time to invistigate when and why the model can breakdown. The point is to see how well a model fits reality, not the other way around.

If he didn't have part of a finger missing on his throwing hand he probably would have been DFA a long time ago.

That would be genius! I'll lay odds he's the PTBNL.

Is this game going to be on ESPN or ESPN2 or even the Ocho?

I didn't even know SD D him FA.

I guess that's good news for the Cubs unless the Brewers score in double digits for a few games.

Do they run out for Lou? Becuase that is an excuse too unless one believes in his infalibility. It is down right stupid, yes stupi .to look at Murton's situation and form the opion that "excuses start to run out". I don't feel like rehashing the details but sparing playing time is about the worst way to judge a player. Especially a palyer who has shown good production given regular playing time at every level he's played. Allright, since I'm stupid I guess I shouldn't respond. What role does Murton himself play? It is not all Lou's fault that he hasn't produced, that is what is stupid. He hasn't produced, playing time is possibly part of it, but not the whole reason. It's real hard to produce when your ass is on the bench. Or when this AB determines whether you get another AB. The manager's job is to put his players in the best position to succeed. Does Murton have to go 2 for 4 every time he plays? When he's got consistent playing time he's produced. It doesn't take a rocket scientist. I just have a problem with the argument that none of this is Murton's fault, just Lou's/Hendry/whoever. Yeah, you do have to produce when given the chance, most people have this requirement on their job, not just baseball. I don't think anyone has made that argument. However, that doesn't mean that Lou cannot be criticized for his use of Murton. .500 BA is a pretty high bar. I still think Lou is pissed about Murton's comments to the media just before then sent him down.

Do they run out for Lou? Becuase that is an excuse too unless one believes in his infalibility. It is down right stupid, yes stupi .to look at Murton's situation and form the opion that "excuses start to run out". I don't feel like rehashing the details but sparing playing time is about the worst way to judge a player. Especially a palyer who has shown good production given regular playing time at every level he's played. If you are going to call someone or their opinion stupid you better be darned sure your grammar and spelling are on point. This is a message board not English class

Do they run out for Lou? Becuase that is an excuse too unless one believes in his infalibility. It is down right stupid, yes stupi .to look at Murton's situation and form the opion that "excuses start to run out". I don't feel like rehashing the details but sparing playing time is about the worst way to judge a player. Especially a palyer who has shown good production given regular playing time at every level he's played. Allright, since I'm stupid I guess I shouldn't respond. What role does Murton himself play? It is not all Lou's fault that he hasn't produced, that is what is stupid. He hasn't produced, playing time is possibly part of it, but not the whole reason. It's real hard to produce when your ass is on the bench. Or when this AB determines whether you get another AB. The manager's job is to put his players in the best position to succeed. Does Murton have to go 2 for 4 every time he plays? When he's got consistent playing time he's produced. It doesn't take a rocket scientist.

Do they run out for Lou? Becuase that is an excuse too unless one believes in his infalibility. It is down right stupid, yes stupi .to look at Murton's situation and form the opion that "excuses start to run out". I don't feel like rehashing the details but sparing playing time is about the worst way to judge a player. Especially a palyer who has shown good production given regular playing time at every level he's played.

But PM does have the Cubs in their "rightful place" and have been a good predictor. Again, this is not an exact science. Each of the three teams are within measurment error (+/- 4 wins). EDIT: Cards are +5, but that is close enough. Just throwing it out there, but don't you think +/- 4 wins is a pretty big margin of error? That's an 8 game swing, the difference between a pretty good club and an also-ran, or the difference between a mediocre club and a poor one. Not in a 162 game season. PM is not really used to judge a good team or bad team. It is simply a measurement model. It's a model that has shown to closely approximate true values. But with any measurement model random fluctuations in true values make measurement error inherent in the model. It's like weather forcasting or stock speculation or anything else that uses a model to make predictions. I haven't looked up PM data in the last few years so the measurement error might be a little different, but I suspect it will always be pretty close to what it was.

But PM does have the Cubs in their "rightful place" and have been a good predictor. Again, this is not an exact science. Each of the three teams are within measurment error (+/- 4 wins). EDIT: Cards are +5, but that is close enough.

Soto cannot be this good. I think the Cubs may have wasted a month or two of this guy being in the "zone". It a shame. He may never be this good again.

Just to add on to that. The most games he's played in CF in one season was 33. I suspect it was because of an injury. In all other seasons he's played CF in less than a dozen games/year.

How so? Pitcher abuse, then the entire "soft" thing by members in the media that the Cubs did nothing to disuade.

I think it's basic economics. He has to atleast make 80% of what he made this year. That is likely to be more than the Cubs are willing to pay him. Another team can sign him to a much more "team friendly" deal. Anyway, I don't think the Cubs care much for Prior and I'm not sure how much Prior cares for the Cubs. Maybe the divorce will be amicable. If he comes back for another team and has success I can see him becoming a most hated former Cubs. I won't hate him though. I think he's been treated rather poorly.

Detroit is speculating that it's Rapada. "Leyland stopped short of disclosing the traded player, but speculation is centered on Clay Rapada, who is 6-2 with a 3.74 ERA at Triple-A Iowa." link Rapada is on the 40-man, which means he'd have to clear waivers to be traded. Pretty doubtful that a cheap lefty reliever with decent numbers makes it through waivers. Which is why they made it a PTBNL deal so that they could trade them Rapada after the year. Personally, if it's a Cubs left-hander currently on the 40 man roster like Leyland said, then I don't really care if it is Eyre, Ohman, Cotts, or Rapada. They each have a small bit of value, but none of them have particularly great value now or in the future. And Monroe has more value? I don't really see it. I'm not against this trade I just don't really see much value in Monroe. I know he's hit LHP well this year but he's a career .277 hitter against LHP. I guess he gives the Cubs some "versitility"*. They seem to really covit versital players. * Versitility- ability to play more than one position. His career OPS against left-handers is .821. Jones's career OPS against left-handers is .632. That will be most of Monroe's value right there with that 190 point difference. The rest of his value will be in a right-handed pinch-hitting option. Since the Cubs have so many OF's that do not hit left-handers well (Jones, Floyd, Pie, Ward), it is really nice to have two options off of the bench that can pinch-hit for one of those OF's in a key situation, which allows one of them to pinch-hit for Jones for example when the team goes to a left-hander late and the other one can pinch-hit for the pitcher during the game. So does Monroe provide a ton of value? Maybe not, but the addition of him in the lineup instead of Jones against LHP will help the team in its struggles against that side of the plate. I think looking at his carrer OPS is a little decieving. In addition, I don't see him replacing Jones at all. He had two seasons where his OPS against LHP was above .900, but for the most part he's been in the .700 range, still better than JJ, but really not that good at all. In fact, I'd would say the difference in improvement is so small that over the course of the next 6 weeks we're likely to see no difference at all. However, his SLG is certianly better than Jones. At the same time, I have to ask, who will he be replacing? You seem to think it's Jones. I suspect it's Murton. After all it doesn't really make much sense b/c Jones is a lefty and Monroe is a righty. I think when Soriano comes back we'll see an OF of Soriano, Jones, Monroe/Floyd. If you compare him to Murton v LHP His numbers just don't stack up. Murton has an AVE, OBP, and OPS atvantage. So, I don't really see what value Monroe brings to the Cubs. I suppose if he replaces Jones @ lefties that would be great, but I doubt that will happen.

Detroit is speculating that it's Rapada. "Leyland stopped short of disclosing the traded player, but speculation is centered on Clay Rapada, who is 6-2 with a 3.74 ERA at Triple-A Iowa." link Rapada is on the 40-man, which means he'd have to clear waivers to be traded. Pretty doubtful that a cheap lefty reliever with decent numbers makes it through waivers. Which is why they made it a PTBNL deal so that they could trade them Rapada after the year. Personally, if it's a Cubs left-hander currently on the 40 man roster like Leyland said, then I don't really care if it is Eyre, Ohman, Cotts, or Rapada. They each have a small bit of value, but none of them have particularly great value now or in the future. And Monroe has more value? I don't really see it. I'm not against this trade I just don't really see much value in Monroe. I know he's hit LHP well this year but he's a career .277 hitter against LHP. I guess he gives the Cubs some "versitility"*. They seem to really covit versital players. * Versitility- ability to play more than one position.

You have been around long enough to know that people who treat Hendry like he shot their dog will not let facts get in the way of their arguments. Why do you see fit to make yourself the commentary critic of NSBB? What makes you superior to us mere mortals? Tell me please, I'd really like to know. Was it your upbringing or your education? Enlighten us all with your wisdom. Please get over it. I was hardly commenting on all of NSBB. My comment was directed at a vocal minority who seem to allow their hate of Jim Hendry to color their opinions. The irony of your post is that you often respond to hyperbole with sarcasm. So when you take that tact it's "ok", but when others do it it's not? Here's a thought: If you don't like what I post, put me on ignore or pm a mod. Otherwise, quit trolling everything I write. I was hoping for some enlightenment and I get a scolding. Oh well, I'll just have to have hope.

Maybe they like them too much, if you know what I mean. The Cubs are 29 and 44 Against the D-Backs

You have been around long enough to know that people who treat Hendry like he shot their dog will not let facts get in the way of their arguments. Why do you see fit to make yourself the commentary critic of NSBB? What makes you superior to us mere mortals? Tell me please, I'd really like to know. Was it your upbringing or your education? Enlighten us all with your wisdom.

Pythagorean method is not an exact science, nor is it a way to determine "luck". According to Rob Neyer it is a way of looking at whether teams under preformed or over preformed based on its runs scored and runs allowed. At the end of the season most teams are about +/- 4 wins from their pythagorean record. All three teams are within measurement error. Therefore, there is no need to lament bad luck or curses.

I really hope they don't start him, ever.

Does anyone know if XM has an alternate broadcast so I don't have to listen to the Giants announcers.

Short term yes, long term maybe a little. The statistic is meant to be analyzed for the big picture (Big N). I don't know how valid it is to use as a short term meter of success