CubinNY
-
Posts
27,690 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
24
Content Type
Profiles
Joomla Posts 1
Chicago Cubs Videos
Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
2026 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects Ranking
News
2023 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
Guides & Resources
2024 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
The Chicago Cubs Players Project
2025 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker
2026 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker
Blogs
Events
Forums
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by CubinNY
-
This may be a sub two hour game.
-
They are a very good team all the way around. And will be for a while with the extensions.
-
old timey Braves zone it sounds like. So far, Pat and Ron have not said anything.
-
You would be correct. I can't watch on MLB.TV because they push it my TV provider but I don't have the package for RSNs
-
getting fired up. I'm blacked out so it will be Pat and Ron for me this weekend. It's usually that way anyway.
-
Is it the NIL stuff or the conference realignment stuff? Or is that you think ND might be forced into a conference? or All of it or none of it. I'd really like to read what you think.
-
A good example of what I'm talking about was Votto's first HR the other night. He got fooled on the pitch and hit a HR with a 93 MPH EV. One could say he got lucky. The pitcher threw a ball over the plate belt high. Votto has elite bat-to-ball skills and hand-eye coordination. He was able to keep his hands back long enough and get full extension to hit the ball hard enough in the air. The luck part of all that is that the wind was blowing out. How much it helped the HR I don't know. But if he didn't have the skill to do the rest of what he did, he wouldn't have hit a HR.
-
It's called a 162-game baseball schedule. It's no fun to say whoever has the best record at the end of the season is the best team and just end things there though.
-
I could totally see a "Trade Deadline Day" Monday where they have no games and make an extravaganza out of it like they do the draft.
-
Variance is definitely part of the equation, but its substantialness is overestimated. I think most would agree that process is more important than product when looking at individual events. It's the frequency of the event that is most important. Putting the bat on the ball is an important skill. Throwing strikes in the zone that are more likely to induce weak contact or no contact is an important skill. Having great hand-eye coordination is an important skill. When all those things come together more times than not, variance is going to be in favor of whoever can do those things best.
-
He doesn't need your help to defend himself. Logically: The Cubs record should be better than it is based on model x Reason for why their record isn't what the model shows: Their record is not better because they've been unlucky What is the logical conclusion of that statement if their record improves? Their luck has changed.
-
I agree. And the data are clear, given certain inputs the record will broadly reflect the predictive model (both Pythagorean and baseruns). When it does not reflect that model, the error is in the model and not reality. Whatever attributions people make for that aren't disprovable facts.
-
If it was bad luck that they weren't better, it must be good luck that they are. That's the implication of your previous posts. Your funny memes don't change that.
-
Which you attribute to luck. That's fine with me.
-
That's not what I'm saying at all. This conversation started out with someone lamenting that the Cubs were unlucky because their record should be better based on some model. But their record is their record. If the model is a close approximation of reality, their record should improve. If it does not improve, it doesn't make them unlucky, it makes the model less relevant to reality.
-
These games are interesting to me in the sense that the stakes don't seem to be as high. Seeing the team respond with good ABs and solid defense would be nice. What I hope doesn't happen is a letdown series where the team looks bad.
-
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-3-23
CubinNY replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
The farm is looking good to end the year. However, what happened to Nwogu this year? He's awful. I'm kind of surprised he hasn't been released. -
The outcome is whatever happened. You make an attribute about that outcome that is in no way an explanation of the outcome. it's an attribution. You could say a hard line drive that gets caught is bad luck or a bloop that drops is good luck. It doesn't matter what you call it. Both may be statistically unlikely outcomes, but luck has little to do with it except it is a convenient and common way for people to talk based on our shared verbal histories. Humans have a much longer history attributing events that are not easily understandable to mysterious entities than they do to physics and science. In other words, a guy who can make contact more often is likely to be considered more lucky than a guy who strikes out more. There are likely other unknown variables at work as well. Where luck (chance) comes into play may be weather events, etc. that are not controllable skills.
-
High school pitchers aren’t automatically wild.
-
The Reds defense is so bad
-
Walkathon
-
Great AB by Morel
-
Madrigal and his running throws might have cost a hit there.
-
You say that without any evidence. It's a matter of faith. Is it luck that the Reds 3rd baseman can't field a ground ball or Votto can no longer handle first? or whatever. Or Ross kept putting in relief pitchers who couldn't throw strikes or command the zone when throwing strikes? There is a lot of stuff that is controllable that happens in games. Is a seeing-eye bloop double lucky or a pitcher making a good pitch and a hitter doing one better by putting wood on it and it landing safely? I guess it depends on one's disposition with regard to skill (pitching and hitting) and outcome. Luck favors skill, it's not a 50/50 proposition.
-
Luck is what we go to when we don't know the real reason.