I don't have a clue what the Cubs are planning. If they don't make the offer, they likely think he will accept, or they are pooling their dollars to make a run at one of the top guys in FA.
If they do make the offer, they may be signalling they are going to the mattresses for the lockout or they are playing a dangerous game of will he or won't he.
Shota will decline the QO, because he stands to make a lot more in a multi-year deal. I'm not sure what the market will bear for someone like him, though.
It should be a very interesting, if not exciting, offseason all across the league. The leage trends will tell us what the owners are thinking.