AlwaysaCub

Z is going to get paid. I'm talking $140M+ paid. I completely believe you, but I don't think we have the space. Why not? I have two reasons. 1. That's another large commitment, and will hurt out flexibility in future years even more. On its own it won't, obviously, because Z will most likely be really good. On top of the other contracts, though, we have a bit of a squeeze. 2. Will the Trib okay that, especially with this sale about to go down? I realize this is basically the Maddux situation all over again, but will they let the wallet open again after this year's offseason? They might see this payroll as being acceptable. We're already first in NL payroll, aren't we?

Z is going to get paid. I'm talking $140M+ paid. I completely believe you, but I don't think we have the space. Therefore, the last name on his checks will be Steinbrenner.

because just b/c pecota says it's gonna happen, doesn't mean it will. i don't think there's any way pie puts up a .340+ OBP and/or out-OPS's jones. Maybe out OPS Jones in AAA but not in MLB, but I don't think Pie will ever be a high OBP guy unless he hits @.300 too. But WARP is the complete picture...it includes defense too. Even if he's only a 3 win player, which is more than likely, that's probably as good as Jock will do when you consider defense in CF, and it would be at a fraction of the cost.

On another note, this is very, very funny: Carlos Zambrano's #3 comparable is Kerry Wood. I don't really buy that though.

PECOTA has Felix Pie as a 5 WARP player...why exactly isn't he our starting CF this year?

Bill James has him at something like 245 strikeouts. That's more like top 5.

Do we want to be favored? No. Then our season will end up like 2004. If we aren't, we can maybe pull off 2003.

If you stay in the rotation for a year, is it really that hard to win 10 games? Hill pitched half the year, with wins in only two months, and still won 6 games. Ted Lilly has won at least 10 games each of the past four years, and has won as many as 15.

I don't see how they could start the year with him. Starters: Zambrano Lilly Hill Marquis Miller Prior Relievers: Dempster Wood Howry Eyre Ohman Wuertz Cotts Novoa Even without Marshall, the Cubs have a ton of arms. Plus, if I'm not mistaken, Marshall has options left. If both Prior and Miller are not healthy on opening day, Marshall could start out the season as the "fifth" starter. Otherwise, I don't see how he fits right now. Everyone so far has listed Ohman, Cotts, and Eyre in the pen to start the season. Why on earth do we need 3 lefties? One of those guys should go, or else you'll end up letting at least one of those guys rot on the bench.

After the Cubs have spent the money, I'm only interested in production and not the cost. Despite his playoff games, you do realize that Reyes put up an ERA over 5 this season, right? Hill's ERA, including 4 months of junk, was a full run lower. We have also yet to see Wainwright make the transition back to starter. I like the Cubs.

You keep saying that and you keep failing to provide anything other than your opinion. Do you have anything concrete or even anecdotal to back that up? If not, fire away, be my guest, but don't expect anyone with even half a head on their shoulders to agree with you. umm...my argument that hendry doesn't have a thing for hill is based on a lack of him saying or doing things to indicate support of hill. therefore, it's kinda hard for me to point to his non-existent quotes of support. since your claim is that he does support/like hill, you should be able to point to quotes or actions indicating such. but as you said, you're not a librarian. Didn't Hendry state last year that he wouldn't trade Hill for Dunn straight up? Nope. Who was it then that he said he wouldn't trade Hill for straight up? It was someone of that caliber. no it wasn't. hendry never publicly said that he wouldn't trade hill for anybody. really, the most talking the organization has done about hill was when they publicly trashed him after the white sox game. Didn't Hendry refuse some kind of Hill for Adam Dunn offer?

There would be nothing fantastic about it. It might be enough to win the division (far from a lock), but that's not really much of an accomplishment. Yeah, the Cardinals won the NL Central in 2006 with 82 wins. Not much of an accomplishment. What did it allow them to do? Win the World Series. Now, is that not much of an accomplishment? The point is to get to the dance. Who cares how it happened?

Where are you going to get a number 2? I'm not in favor of signing Marquis, but a front-line starter is pretty much out of the question. Why not Zito? The money the Cubs would throw at Zito should be reserved for Zambrano, who is going to cost a small mint to keep around. right now, just thinking what Big Z would ask for on the open market is scaring me. 6 years and $102M is my guess. And that would be a bargain. Zito is likely to get that being a #2 starter. Z is a legit ace. Aces don't hit the open market very often anymore. They don't get traded often either. so what do you think Zito end up with? At least 6/102MM. This market is flush with cash. Zambrano would get more next season. Also, he becomes a free agent after this season if he isn't resigned. Next winter, he is far and away the best free agent pitcher. The only other starter worth anything is Smoltz, who might retire. After him there is Schilling, also quite old, and then Jason Jennings. He blows them all out of the water. Z at that point will be going into his age 27 season, his prime 4 years, having put up 200 innings and an ERA below 3.50 in 5 consecutive years. That's ridiculous value and even more ridiculous dollars.

Mark Cuban was just the "5 good minutes" guest on PTI. They spoke most of the time on the Mavericks, but Wilbon's last question was, "Are you going to buy the Cubs?" Cuban responded basically with, "I think the Trib, as a publicly traded company, are doing the right thing by exploring their options." He then went on to say that he has made contract about those interested in buying the entire Tribune company and has expressed interest in the Cubs should the new owner want to spin the Cubs off. Wilbon looked very, very happy.

I would say the swing is his highlight, but you could also choose to remember him for his 2-run single in game 3 of the LDS against Maddux when Prior only gave up 1 over 9. He also hit that pinch hit 2-run homer against the Marlins in game 3 of the LCS that year. He was a clutch player because he actually put the ball in play against a pitcher like Greg Maddux. He has his place, but only on a strong ball-club that can hide him on the bench. That is pretty rare, though.

56-60 million over 4? I guess that's good considering the market, but still, with his injury history, that could be major cash down the drain. They could have the all-underperformance team like last year again

There's a book called "The Physics of Baseball" or something to that effect. I read it a long time ago, and I can't recall exactly, but I think the book talked about the materials as they affect the way the ball carries. Hope that helps.

The second-tier pitching market has been set. I really hope Ted Lilly doesn't want much more than that...

Glendon Rusch is still on the roster, and there's been no indication that he won't make the team. He would be the 4th lefty in the bullpen listed, and that's ridiculous. A trade must be in the works/in Hendry's mind.

Why don't you just reverse it then? Kenny Lofton is a career leadoff man but he hit second last year to accomodate Furcal. Roberts would do just fine in the 2-hole, and it would (hopefully) put back-to-back .350 OBPs at the top of the order. That might not sound like much, but the last time we had anything approaching that was the end of 2003, and that turned out very well.

Close this if it's already been posted, but... From http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=2670755 By Phil Rogers: If the payroll is 125 million, they have 33 million left on 9 players. It really isn't clear to me who those 16 players are, because we have a load of young pitchers who may or may not make the 25 man. However, some of those 9 spots will probably be filled by people making the minimum, which probably leaves us about 28 million for 4 or 5 players. That's a lot more than I thought. Is this the correct reading here?

Especially with the price CFers are being payed this year. I don't think JJ likes it in Chicago after all the abuse he took. I think he would welcome a trade. But a lot can change with him in CF and with Soriano on the team. Last year the Cubs really needed him to produce, now that is not so much the case. The Cubs really need him to produce this year. Anything less than what he did last year would hurt the team. He's still the 5th hitter, as things stand today. They haven't added a single middle of the order hitter. I don't necessarly disagree, but I don't think they need another run producer. With Lee, Aramis, and Soriano they have three pretty good ones. I think they need at least one or two guys who can get on base with regularity at the top of the order. I know a lot of people have discussed this but I beleive putting Soriano at the top of the order is a waste of his SLG. Unless things change they still will be a an "on base" challenged team. Unfortunately, it's just not realistic to think of Soriano as anything but the leadoff hitter. Every indication is that he was promised the spot and wants to stay in the spot. The Cubs need an impact bat. That impact bat will have to come through trade, and probably not a trade involving Jaque Jones. Trading Jaque for a different bat is not much of an upgrade, because we still would have 2.5 black holes in our lineup on the days Zambrano isn't pitching. I doubt we can afford one of the last two impact bats available in JD or Lee.

http://baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=242 A question from today's BP chat Just thought I'd share that.

While Jaque Jones has his on-base and lefty hitting problems, he still hit 27 homers last year and had a decently high average, of course with no walks. HOWEVER, he also only makes 4 million this year and 5 next year. If he had become a free agent this offseason instead of last offseason, he would get a LOT more, possibly even twice as much. His contract is far below market. To a team like the Blue Jays or Oakland, who compete on the low payroll and try to cut costs, they might see a lot of value in that. They might give you a guy who would be about to make a lot, like Vernon Wells, for him if they get that production on the cheap. Is that not true?

This isn't that surprising. The Cardinals turned a back-up catcher into a starter, a guy who can't hit either. They played him every day and he ended up as a postseason hero. We have to emulate the Cards, because that team won a championship. Duh.